My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popu…
My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popular vote moving 3.5 points to the right. Indeed many other states got far redder in the past decade than PA, including NY and NJ, which did so without any substantial surge in GOP voter registration. As always, I think partisan voter reg is a lagging indicator, just a small part of the story. A lot of attention was placed on FL voter reg the past few years, but amazingly its resulting red shift was almost matched by MA of all states (which retains its lopsided Dem voter reg)...
My usual commentary on Pennsylvania partisan voter reg: sure, the state has gone from a 12 point Dem edge to just a 2 point Dem edge in the past decade. Does the state actually seem 10 points redder than 2015 though? Compared to Trump's first win, the state only moved a single point to the right, and this coincided with the national popular vote moving 3.5 points to the right. Indeed many other states got far redder in the past decade than PA, including NY and NJ, which did so without any substantial surge in GOP voter registration. As always, I think partisan voter reg is a lagging indicator, just a small part of the story. A lot of attention was placed on FL voter reg the past few years, but amazingly its resulting red shift was almost matched by MA of all states (which retains its lopsided Dem voter reg)...