I think Georgia elects a non controversial Democrat if Trump is as bad as I suspect (his first 2 days tell me that his entire 2nd term will be nothing but chaos; I think Georgia voters will become simply exhausted by election day 2026)
I think Brian Kemp is perceived as being conservative, yet sane(voters in a state that elected Warnock and Ossoff are not going to elect too crazy of candidate statewide for Governor)
Tying into the podcast on Lt. Governors and MI-Gov. For Michigan the NGLA says Lt. Governors in MI are "elected by party convention after the primary" maybe that can be used to get Duggan out of the way as much as rewarding his run irks me.
The last time an outparty incumbent Governor lost was 2014. With that background putting AZ in tossup is not justifiable. Hobbs even has positive job approval. Lean D for me.
With Duggan running as an independent, toss up is fine. Duggan has very real spoiler potential for dems.
NV-GOV is lean R for me. Lombardo is popular and the trends in NV are not good.
WI-Gov is also lean D. Evers would start out as the clear favorite. Even without him abortion is a huge bonus for any democratic candidate here. The state even trended left in 2024.
VA-GOV is lean D for me. About the only thing republicans have going for them is Youngkin being popular. And that rarely transfers to a new candidate.
Dems have the lean of the state on their side. There are decades of the outparty winning VA-GOV.
Spanberger is the better candidate. Carefully crafted moderate image. She worked on bi-partisan legislation . Voted against Pelosi and attacked the left over defunding the police.
She has outraised Sears and lead the limited polling we have seen so far.
Meanwhile Sears has quite conservative social views that are a liability. No high-profile breaks from her party. Neither has she shown that she can talk convincly about her stances on social issues.
an unnecessary quibble; the off year election will be a different electoral universe of voters than the Presidential anyways; if Trump is as bad as advertised, the Democratic party will win almost all marginal races(with normal candidates running)
That’s a weird way to look at trends but okay. It voted more Republican than last time but less so than the nation so it trended left. I mean, based off the results from 2020 to 2024, the state went more Republican but okay.
On Arizona, I disagree. I would classify it as tossup because the lean will be dependent on what happens in the Republican primary.
The two current expected R candidates are Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs. Trump currently is backing Taylor Robson.
If Taylor Robson is the R candidate, I would put Arizona as lean R. If Biggs wins, I could suggest it's tossup to lean D. Taylor Robson is well liked by moderates. Biggs is a right wing nut, but he isn't viewed as negatively as Lake was.
Hobbs is much better at being governor than running for the position. My prediction, as usual in Arizona, it'll be close.
The last time an incumbent outparty governor lost was 2014. The last poll had her job approval at +5. With republicans controlling the legislature there isn't any unpopular legislation she has signed.
Outparty governors have won in much tougher states then the light red AZ. I just don't see why Hobbs is suddenly the incumbent that underperforms these historical patterns.
I can’t complain about tossups this early on, especially in competitive states, given we don’t know who will be running (not even all the incumbents who can run again necessarily will) or what the main issues or state or national political environments will be.
2026 will be decided by two thins only: 1) How bad (or not bad) Trump is in his second term, and 2) What Trump & Co have managed to do to subvert the electoral process, at the state level and nationally.
Cook 2025-2026 governor ratings:
The following races start in Toss Up: #AZGOV, #MIGOV, #WIGOV, #GAGOV, #NVGOV, #VAGOV (2025).
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings
Any ideas woi the candidates in Kansas will be?
Cant quibble with any of those choices
I would move GA Gov to lean R and MI Gov to lean D.
Fair
I think Georgia elects a non controversial Democrat if Trump is as bad as I suspect (his first 2 days tell me that his entire 2nd term will be nothing but chaos; I think Georgia voters will become simply exhausted by election day 2026)
Georgia has a sneakily high number of federal employees, and they are all PISSED at the Trump Administration right now for killing off all telework.
I think Brian Kemp is perceived as being conservative, yet sane(voters in a state that elected Warnock and Ossoff are not going to elect too crazy of candidate statewide for Governor)
Duggan remains the wildcard in MI. If he takes a quarter or more of the vote in Detroit that is problematic.
Tying into the podcast on Lt. Governors and MI-Gov. For Michigan the NGLA says Lt. Governors in MI are "elected by party convention after the primary" maybe that can be used to get Duggan out of the way as much as rewarding his run irks me.
as an independent, he's just a spoiler; cut an acceptable deal with the dude(if his price is reasonable)
How easily can Duggan get on the ballot in Michigan, i Imagine repugs will be helping him.
As usual cook puts way too many races in toss-up.
The last time an outparty incumbent Governor lost was 2014. With that background putting AZ in tossup is not justifiable. Hobbs even has positive job approval. Lean D for me.
With Duggan running as an independent, toss up is fine. Duggan has very real spoiler potential for dems.
NV-GOV is lean R for me. Lombardo is popular and the trends in NV are not good.
WI-Gov is also lean D. Evers would start out as the clear favorite. Even without him abortion is a huge bonus for any democratic candidate here. The state even trended left in 2024.
VA-GOV is lean D for me. About the only thing republicans have going for them is Youngkin being popular. And that rarely transfers to a new candidate.
Dems have the lean of the state on their side. There are decades of the outparty winning VA-GOV.
Spanberger is the better candidate. Carefully crafted moderate image. She worked on bi-partisan legislation . Voted against Pelosi and attacked the left over defunding the police.
She has outraised Sears and lead the limited polling we have seen so far.
Meanwhile Sears has quite conservative social views that are a liability. No high-profile breaks from her party. Neither has she shown that she can talk convincly about her stances on social issues.
WI trended left in '24? From 20,682D in '20 to 29,937R in '24 is trending left? How so?
Trend is always relative to the nation. WI only moved right 1.5 points while the nation moved 6 points to the right.
Despite the loss Wisconsin moving left relative to the country was one of the few nice surprises from that awful night. Would've not predicted that.
OK, but...no.
Trended less right, yes.
Trended left, no.
A 50,000 vote move to the right is in no sense a trend to the left.
an unnecessary quibble; the off year election will be a different electoral universe of voters than the Presidential anyways; if Trump is as bad as advertised, the Democratic party will win almost all marginal races(with normal candidates running)
That’s a weird way to look at trends but okay. It voted more Republican than last time but less so than the nation so it trended left. I mean, based off the results from 2020 to 2024, the state went more Republican but okay.
On Arizona, I disagree. I would classify it as tossup because the lean will be dependent on what happens in the Republican primary.
The two current expected R candidates are Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs. Trump currently is backing Taylor Robson.
If Taylor Robson is the R candidate, I would put Arizona as lean R. If Biggs wins, I could suggest it's tossup to lean D. Taylor Robson is well liked by moderates. Biggs is a right wing nut, but he isn't viewed as negatively as Lake was.
Hobbs is much better at being governor than running for the position. My prediction, as usual in Arizona, it'll be close.
The last time an incumbent outparty governor lost was 2014. The last poll had her job approval at +5. With republicans controlling the legislature there isn't any unpopular legislation she has signed.
Outparty governors have won in much tougher states then the light red AZ. I just don't see why Hobbs is suddenly the incumbent that underperforms these historical patterns.
Agreed completely; Trump will become Hobbs best vote getter
I can’t complain about tossups this early on, especially in competitive states, given we don’t know who will be running (not even all the incumbents who can run again necessarily will) or what the main issues or state or national political environments will be.
2026 will be decided by 1 thing only; how bad(or not so bad) is the second term of Donald Trump
2026 will be decided by two thins only: 1) How bad (or not bad) Trump is in his second term, and 2) What Trump & Co have managed to do to subvert the electoral process, at the state level and nationally.