On Arizona, I disagree. I would classify it as tossup because the lean will be dependent on what happens in the Republican primary.
The two current expected R candidates are Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs. Trump currently is backing Taylor Robson.
If Taylor Robson is the R candidate, I would put Arizona as lean R. If Biggs wins, I could suggest it's tossup to lean D. Taylor Robson is well liked by moderates. Biggs is a right wing nut, but he isn't viewed as negatively as Lake was.
Hobbs is much better at being governor than running for the position. My prediction, as usual in Arizona, it'll be close.
The last time an incumbent outparty governor lost was 2014. The last poll had her job approval at +5. With republicans controlling the legislature there isn't any unpopular legislation she has signed.
Outparty governors have won in much tougher states then the light red AZ. I just don't see why Hobbs is suddenly the incumbent that underperforms these historical patterns.
On Arizona, I disagree. I would classify it as tossup because the lean will be dependent on what happens in the Republican primary.
The two current expected R candidates are Karrin Taylor Robson and Andy Biggs. Trump currently is backing Taylor Robson.
If Taylor Robson is the R candidate, I would put Arizona as lean R. If Biggs wins, I could suggest it's tossup to lean D. Taylor Robson is well liked by moderates. Biggs is a right wing nut, but he isn't viewed as negatively as Lake was.
Hobbs is much better at being governor than running for the position. My prediction, as usual in Arizona, it'll be close.
The last time an incumbent outparty governor lost was 2014. The last poll had her job approval at +5. With republicans controlling the legislature there isn't any unpopular legislation she has signed.
Outparty governors have won in much tougher states then the light red AZ. I just don't see why Hobbs is suddenly the incumbent that underperforms these historical patterns.
Agreed completely; Trump will become Hobbs best vote getter