Morning Digest: Don't sleep on these two races for attorney general in key swing states

These top law enforcement officers could play a big role in election disputes

Rep. Jeff Jackson, Democratic nominee for attorney general of North Carolina (Credit: Jeff Jackson for attorney general)

Leading Off

NC-AG, PA-AG

North Carolina and Pennsylvania will elect new attorneys general next week, and just like in the battle for each state's electoral votes, there's no obvious favorite for either post.

A new SurveyUSA poll for WRAL shows North Carolina Democrat Jeff Jackson with a slim 44-42 edge over his fellow congressman, Republican Dan Bishop, as respondents deadlock 47-47 between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. 

But while the Tar Heel State gets plenty of attention from pollsters, SurveyUSA is one of the rare firms that's released data on race for attorney general. The only other poll we've seen in all of October came from the GOP firm Cygnal, which placed Jackson ahead by a similar 46-43 spread in the middle of the month.

Jackson and Bishop are competing to succeed Democrat Josh Stein, who was favored to win the governorship even before Republican Mark Robinson's campaign imploded in September. But while Jackson has been tying Bishop to Robinson, he also warned in his newsletter two weeks ago that "the collapse of Mark Robinson's campaign" could actually help his opponent in one important area: "Bishop now has much less competition for big donors," Jackson explained.

Campaign finance reports released Thursday show that he was right to be concerned. WUNC's Colin Campbell notes that a Republican group that helps elect statewide officials in North Carolina has stopped donating to Robinson, which leaves more money for Bishop and other candidates. Jackson, though, still outraised Bishop $8 million to $6 million from July 1 to Oct. 19 and outspent him by a larger $11 million to $7 million spread.

One reason this race is so expensive is that Democrats across the country badly want to keep Bishop, one of the most prominent election deniers in Congress, from becoming the top lawyer for this swing state. While Stein's term lasts until Jan. 1, it's still possible important legal fights over the 2024 election will be left for his successor to handle. And perhaps more importantly, the next attorney general will be in office during the 2028 presidential election and its immediate aftermath.

The stakes are similar in Pennsylvania in the battle between the Democratic nominee, former state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, and his Republican rival, York County District Attorney Dave Sunday.

The two are running to succeed Democrat Michelle Henry, whom Democrat Josh Shapiro picked to replace him as attorney general after he was elected governor in 2022. Henry, who opted not to run for a full term, will remain in office until Jan. 21—one day after the new president is inaugurated.  

Unlike in North Carolina, though, it's Republicans who enjoy a huge financial advantage in Pennsylvania. Spotlight PA's Katie Meyer wrote recently that Sunday and his allies have spent $13 million on TV ads since June, compared to just $3 million for DePasquale's side.

One key reason for this disparity is the involvement of the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, an outfit largely funded by free-spending conservative megadonor Jeff Yass. Democrats hope that DePasquale, who won statewide in 2012 and 2016, remains well-known enough to overcome the onslaught. Unfortunately, pollsters surveying the Keystone State have been especially reluctant to include the DePasquale-Sunday race in their questionnaires, so we haven't seen any reliable numbers here in well over a month.

The Downballot Podcast

Our hour-by-hour guide to election night!

At long last, the election is almost here, and there are thousands of races to follow. That's why we're lucky to have the supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, join us on the last pre-election edition of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour overview of the key contests to watch. Jeff highlights the top Senate battles and critical House races that will likely determine control of both chambers, starting when the first polls close in Indiana all the way until voting wraps in Alaska.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Judges

OK Supreme Court

Conservatives have raised $2 million to oust three Democratic appointees to the Oklahoma Supreme Court, the Tulsa World's Randy Krehbiel reports, compared with $1.6 million for the pro-retention side.

As we previously wrote in the Downballot, the three justices—James Edmondson, Noma Gurich, and Yvonne Kauger—have served as a rare obstacle to total conservative control of the state. Voters will be presented with "yes" or "no" questions asking whether to retain each justice for a new six-year term.

No justice has ever failed to win retention in the Sooner State, but Krehbiel writes that allies of Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt are involved in the campaign to beat the trio. The state's largest Native American tribes, meanwhile, are calling for them to remain in office.

Ballot Measures

Healthcare

Abortion is taking center stage this year, but voters in several states are deciding on ballot measures involving a variety of other issues related to healthcare. Stephanie Akin of Pluribus News takes a look at the key contests across the country.

In South Dakota, the Republican-dominated legislature authored Amendment F, a constitutional amendment that would let lawmakers impose work requirements on anyone who wants to benefit from the state's newly expanded Medicaid program. Voters approved that expansion in 2022 months after Republicans unsuccessfully tried to make it much tougher to pass constitutional amendments.

Conservative donors, though, don't seem particularly interested in promoting Amendment F after those setbacks. Joshua Haiar of South Dakota Searchlight found just $6,000 worth of advertising from the "yes" side, while opponents have deployed around $350,000 in recent weeks.

Even if Amendment F prevails, though, it's far from guaranteed that legislators could make use of it anytime soon. Akin explains that the federal government needs to approve work requirements, an idea no Democratic administration would sign off on. Donald Trump was considerably more supportive when he was in the White House, but Akin writes that every such application except for Georgia's "was withdrawn by the states, blocked by the courts or revoked by the Biden administration."

West Virginia, meanwhile, is the first state to decide whether to prohibit "the practice of medically assisted suicide, euthanasia, or mercy killing of a person." Assisted suicide is already illegal in the Mountain State, but supporters of Amendment 1 insist it's necessary to place a ban in the state constitution.

Those aren't the only healthcare issues voters will decide on, though. Akin has more on measures involving fertility treatments, guns, healthcare taxes, and other topics.  

MO Ballot

The underfunded campaign to stop Missouri's abortion rights amendment got a late $1 million infusion on Tuesday from the Concord Fund, which is part of Federalist Society co-chairman Leonard Leo's powerful conservative network.

The "yes" side, though, still retains a huge advantage in the battle to pass Amendment 3. The Missouri Independent's Anna Spoerre writes that Missourians for Constitutional Freedom has spent $10 million on advertising, while its opponents have deployed just $700,000.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights: Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 44 (48-47 Trump) (Aug.: 47-40 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Cygnal (R): Rick Scott (R-inc): 49, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 45 (48-43 Trump)

• MI-Sen: YouGov for UMass Lowell: Elissa Slotkin (D): 48, Mike Rogers (R): 39 (49-45 Harris) (mid-Sept.: 47-34 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post: Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 45 (47-46 Harris)

• MI-Sen: Mitchell Research and Communications (R) for Michigan News Source: Rogers (R): 49, Slotkin (D): 47 (48-47 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 45-40 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Echelon Insights (R): Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 46 (47-47 presidential tie)

• NE-Sen-A: Change Research (D) for Dan Osborn: Deb Fischer (R-inc): 47, Dan Osborn (I): 47 (57-39 Trump) (late Oct.: 48-46 Osborn)

• PA-Sen: YouGov for UMass Lowell: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 42 (48-47 Harris) (late Oct.: 48-42 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Echelon (R): McCormick (R): 47, Casey (D-inc): 44 (51-46 Trump)

• WI-Sen: Echelon (R): Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Eric Hovde (R): 48 (48-48 presidential tie)

• NC-Gov: YouGov for UMass Lowell: Josh Stein (D): 48, Mark Robinson (R): 36 (47-45 Trump)

• NC-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Stein (D): 53, Robinson (R): 37 (48-47 Harris) (late Sept.: 53-36 Stein)

• NH-Gov: YouGov for UMass Lowell: Kelly Ayotte (R): 45, Joyce Craig (D): 43 (50-43 Harris) (mid-Oct.: 42-41 Ayotte)

• AZ Ballot: NPI: Abortion amendment: Yes: 57, No: 33

• CO Ballot: Keating Research (D): Abortion amendment: Yes: 60, No: 32 (Note: needs 55% to pass) (53-41 Harris)

• NC Superintendent of Public Institution: SurveyUSA for WRAL Michele Morrow (R): 42, Mo Green (D): 41 (47-47 presidential tie) (early Sept.: 40-38 Green)

YouGov's prior poll in Pennsylvania was conducted for a different client, CBS.