Yeah, 150 sample size is not enough to draw any conclusion. For what's worth, in Florida's 2020 exit poll, Puerto Ricans voted for Biden over Trump 69 to 31.
Given the blatant hate being spewed by trump and his minions I could easily see 1/2 to 2/3 of the trump voting Puerto Ricans in FL telling the repubs to F. O. and would now vote for Kamala
Really? Seems like peeling off half of the Puerto Ricans who would have voted for Trump would be great. That would turn a (hypothetical) 64-36 Harris lead among all PR voters to 82-18.
i think the final rally is at the Philadelphia Museum Monday night from 5-9 with special musical guest. Taylor Swift is off that night and she is from the Philly suburb area. Philadelphia election day turnout is key. Pittsburgh is from 3-7pm
On their list of pollster ratings, 538 lists something called Liberty Opinion Research but no Liberty Insight Research. The latter’s oldest Tweet is from 27 September this year. Here is their feed:
Yeah, I don't see this as worth the pixels. Disinformation seems to be the moat likely root here. A new account citing an unknown pollster with only showing top lines? Yeah, no
I reluctantly agree. Especially since split ticking voting for President/Senate is dying a slow and painful death. There will absolutely be some of that. Especially in Maryland where Angela Alsobrooks is running far behind VP Harris. Not enough, however that it will save any candidates for Senate. For Governor that's a different story. Especially in North Carolina and New Hampshire. The latter where too many people STILL buy into the myth of the "moderate Republican."
At this point, I'd just toss them on the pile with the likes of Activote and Atlas Intel. Reminds me of that obscure 1 time pollster in 2012 - Pharos Research Group. Does anyone remember them? They arrived outta nowhere and promptly vanished after 2012. Tbf they did provide crosstabs and called quite a few races correctly.
Pharos was a fraudulent pollster, I mostly remember them for the polls they spit out in Kentucky showing democrats doing far better then they actually did
Am I a troll because I don’t automatically assume that there’s suddenly going to be an Election Day surge of left-leaning voters who haven’t bothered to turn out? Or because I question your assumptions?
"Troll" is an unfair characterization here, I think. It's a justifiable if pessimistic view that Democrats will have lower turnout this year based on early vote returns. I don't inherently agree it's likely to be lower, but it is entirely possible and some of the data we have so far points to that possibility.
And it wouldn't be fair to call those commenters trolls either.
The reality is the data we have is inconsistent, and can be interpreted or extrapolated in several directions in ways that make sense individually but are incongruent with eachother.
This isn't 2010 or 2008 where all evidence was pointing in exactly the same direction. We have bimodal (or trimodal in some cases) data in polling, we have disparate turnout patterns from state to state. Comparing to previous cycles is difficult as 2020 voting patterns was clearly an anomaly, yet voting patterns have not reverted to what they were previously, so we are left with some bastardized new normal that none of us can confidently say we can accurately map.
The reality is we don't know, and are doing our best to interpret an in-process election that doesn't have a good baseline. Just because one person's interpretation doesn't match another's doesn't make either person a troll.
Great post here. Tired of the unwarranted confidence one way or another. None of the data we have before us precludes either a Harris or Trump win. Even a comfortable win from either would not directly contradict anything we are currently seeing. I'm begging the handful of people who are getting most worked up arguing about this to just take a break for a little bit. We'll all see who was right and wrong in short order. Then the real analysis can begin.
I'll say this as someone who is a bit more on the pessimistic side. How one expresses their pessimism matters a lot. There's a difference between bringing up (what one believes, in good faith, to be) negative data/trends/concerns, and just plain dooming. And... it can be tough. Rhetoric is a hard skill for many people. I don't think Oceanblaze17 is trolling at all - I would have worded that post differently, though.
The best I can advise is for posters to ask: what will be the impact of posting this message that has pessimism? Is it to get more information? Or just to cause a panic?
I want/need my hopium just as much as everybody, but also I know there is room for interpretations of the data that are pessimistic.
You are not a self-appointed moderator, and do not accuse people of being trolls. You have way too long a history of combative behavior on our site. My patience is thin. If you engage in this behavior again, you're getting a timeout, and it may last through Election Day.
This isn't Daily Kos, but I'll remind former Kossacks that there was good reason that publicly accusing another commenter of trolling was technically bannable. It's not conducive to a good forum climate to have folks making wild accusations over disagreements.
For ease of reference, Marist reported the following:
Pennsylvania 🔵 Harris +2
Wisconsin 🔵 Harris +2
Michigan 🔵 Harris +3
And Senate:
Pennsylvania 🔵 Casey +2
Wisconsin 🔵 Baldwin +3
Michigan 🔵 Slotkin +6
Marist nailed the Pennsylvania senate race in 2022, with their final poll showing a 51-45 Fetterman lead versus a final result of 51-46. Certainly no guarantee they'll get it right again, but given their track record, these carry greater weight than other polls IMO.
This would be the opposite of how I would figure the senate races would play out so interesting to see. Figure Casey & Baldwin would have more distance from Harris's number.
I think so. Of the Michigan-based polls, Epic and Glengariff have Harris up 3. Mitchell has Trump up 1, but they have a longstanding GOP bias. MSU has Harris up 4 but they have much less of a track record.
Emerson showing a one point lead in Nevada (and elsewhere) may be better than it looks, as they've said they've gone out of their way to try and capture Trump voters that pollsters may have missed in the past. But the early vote data from the state so far is of course mixed at best.
The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.
In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.
Agreed this is nothing but Cook waiting until the last minute for drama; while they will chicken out on the 'real' races by labeling them as 'Tossup'(they do this every cycle); Larry Sabato will call every single race by Monday night
Curious what they see in CO-03. I always thought it was Lean R just because Frisch has run an excellent well-funded campaign but the damn pvi of the seat is tough and Bobert is not around to be a foil. My guess in 2022 was Frisch had a 47% cap and he ended up at 49.9% so I hope to wrong on this one again.
I really don't. One plausible theory might be that the leadership of both parties have taken more of an interest in it, but if it were so competitive then wouldn't the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund have included it in its final 34 districts announced yesterday receiving investment? Steve Scalise did take the time yesterday to appear at a rally with Neil Parrott, who said he'd join the Freedom Caucus if elected. That is not going to win over voters in Montgomery and Frederick Counties--two thirds of the district.
Meanwhile, April McClain Delaney dropped some more of her own money into the contest which many have taken as a sign of competitiveness, but she's self funded far less than her husband--or Trone--ever did.
Another idea I've heard is that Hogan's Senate bid indicated that Republicans are seriously competing in the district and he may have coattails. As if the presidential race doesn't exist?
(Hogan seems likely to lose statewide by a significant margin with recent polls showing him down by double digits, and may not even carry the 6th at that rate. He probably will but not with the coattails to pull Parrott or anyone else through.)
"Another idea I've heard is that Hogan's Senate bid indicated that Republicans are seriously competing in the district and he may have coattails. As if the presidential race doesn't exist?" Yeah from what you say even if Hogan had coattails, Parrott is running as a freedom caucus MAGA loon and the Presidential race does set the tone. If he was running as pragmatist tied to the hip to Hogan then I could see a path that would justify Lean D.
Yeah, Parrott running as a Freedom Caucus guy like Andy Harris over on the Eastern Shore seems bizarre for a district mostly based in MoCo and Frederick, but you also have to think that most of the GOP primary voters aren't from either of those areas. Certainly not the best fit for a reach D district in a Presidential year.
And ironically, perhaps, Parrott isn't the furthest right of the candidates they could have chosen. For a real MAGA loon they could have picked Dan Cox.
Parrott's actually played things somewhat smarter than many other Republicans in blue-leaning or purple districts; he for example doesn't to my knowledge feature Trump in ads or campaign lit (though I don't know what he might be putting out in the red parts of the district.) But I can't fathom why he thought that featuring the Freedom Caucus and GOP congressional leadership is a good closing argument.
I've lived in Virginia for nearly 30 years of my life, more than 10 of them in the Roanoke media market, and I've never once heard of a "panhandle" of Virginia.
As we well know, Trump wouldn’t trust either one. Moreover, having either Jesús as scorekeeper on the greens of Mar-a-Lago would severely impact Trump’s handicap in an honest direction. Intolerable!
A considerably wider margin than their last poll, in August, though Harris led even then. I hope my alma mater gets the result right, though I'm glad I'm not there this weekend as Trump chose the nearby Salem Civic Center for a rally. Then again, if he wants to waste the last few days in states he won't win, maybe I shouldn't complain....
I was a student at Roanoke when they did their first political horserace poll in 1994, when they showed Sen.Chuck Robb leading Oliver North in a nationally much-watched race that most others showed as a tossup at best. And Roanoke's numbers ultimately proved right (not that they've always been since.)
Actually the Roanoke/Salem area is a lot less red than most of the panhandle to the southwest (except Blacksburg and Radford.)
When I lived in VA (1990s) SW VA actually often voted blue, similar to nearby West Virginia. That was when the Richmond area was beet red outside the city, and Hampton Roads and even NOVA were purple at best.
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (updated: 70 MILLION have voted!)
(UPDATE, 8:45pm) Numerous states are over 50% of their total 2020 turnout: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Washington. Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and Texas have surpassed 60%. Meanwhile, Tennessee has exceeded 70%, while Georgia is just a hair under 80% of its total vote in the 2020 election.
More than 70 million people have already voted, with over 37.2 million voting Early In-Person, and more than 32.7 million voting by Mail Ballot.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
Other key states, MT/OH/NE are included because of vital Senate races:
MT 59.1% 361,865
VA 44.4% 2,008,586
OH 36.9% 2,206,253
NE 31.3% 303,116*
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
Interesting, given that other polls have had Golden’s challenger, Austin Theriault, leading. While the most conservative Democratic Congressman, Golden may be important to Dems flipping the House.
As someone who lives in his very-Red district (ME-02), I find the poll’s indication of split voting credible. If anything might sink Golden’s reelection bid, it will sadly be his support for very-modest gun control legislation after the horrific massacre in Golden’s home town of Lewiston.
Once again we see polling with a huge gender gap: "A gender gap was noticeable among the presidential candidates. Trump leads by 4 points statewide among men in first-place votes, while Harris leads by 21 points among women."
Well enough. The issue this year is that his opponent would be tailor-made for the district, if you added about five years to his age. Seemed to be a common sentiment that he comes off like a kid when I was there over the summer.
For me one of the biggest tells for the Latino vote is the CA22 race. The Dem base in that district is almost entirely noncollege Latinos. If Dem support among that group were really cratering, Harris would be struggling to win the district and Valadao would be cruising. Instead the polling we've seen has shown Harris winning easily and Salas tied or slightly ahead, and more importantly both campaigns are acting like the House race is a tossup.
The thing is is that the Latino vote just isn't monolithic at all (as I'm sure you know). My sense is that Democrats have held up better with Mexican-Americans better than some other groups, which I'm guessing you see in CA-22.
Are there any districts / states where they are a significant part of the voting population? Just wondering if there is slippage how much it would matter.
Looking at Pew almost half of Venezuelans live in Florida with 15% living in Texas. There's a large Brazilian community around Orlando which unsurprisingly is where Bolsonaro spent the first months of his ex-Presidency seeing if Biden would grant him political asylum (spoiler alert, no).
You could say it's mostly a Florida problem politically, but a vote here and vote there in a swing state...
Brazil is in Latin America. They are non-Hispanic Latinos, like Belizeans or Guyanese. On the other hand Portuguese Americans are not Latino if their ancestry is from Portugal, not Brazil. So Reps. Valadao, Costa and former Rep. Devin Nunes are probably not Latino and definitely not Hispanic. That is my opinion; others may differ...
They are Latino but not Hispanic. These groups have alot of overlap, and frankly are somewhat ill defined (really both, in the popular mind, basically mean brown, but not black people, from South of the US border.)
Of course, CA-22 is atypical of majority Latino districts in having been historically represented by GOP Congressmembers. I've written at length on DKE in the past about why the Central Valley seats are atypical of the Latino vote generally.
I read somewhere today that Latino/a voters are coming back home to the Democrats because of the floating garbage thing and especially Bad Bunny's endorsement of Harris. Perhaps they would have come back anyway as the race becomes real. I think/hope other dubious demos are coming home now too.
Another great turnout in the City of Milwaukee. Halloween again bested the previous day with 6,875 people showing up to early vote in person, 1,476 were by people who registered at the polls.
To date 52,213 people have voted early in person in the City of Milwaukee, of those 7,176 registered to vote at an early voting location. Not including yesterday Milwaukee had 79,222 ballots returned this number includes mailed ballots), the city predicted 80,000 total for the early voting period, so we’re going to easily blast through that and land between 90-95,000.
Milwaukee will continue to have early voting sites through the weekend, but today is the last day to register at the polls until Election Day.
Using the updated firewall calculation [D-R+(O*.4)], the current advantage is Harris+469,328 or 27.79%. So that gap in EV includes about 450 of 553k GOPers voting for Harris.
Re-calculated: 28% of 1.688 million (the current # of ballots received) is 472,794. So using the updated firewall formula, the # of GOP EV the Marist poll suggests Harris will win is 3,467 or 0.63%. Almost eight times as many as before but still very low. I don't believe that figure either.
Return gap continues to close as expected. 506k ballots are outstanding, 51.3k are from Democrats in Philadelphia & 32.3k from Allegheny Democrats. Philadelphia finally hit 70% returned. Luzerne is still lagging. Erie, with all their issues, still at 16.3k outstanding.
Satellite locations are open thru Monday, obviously more are open on weekends. Only the county offices are open on Election Day. Completed ballots CANNOT be turned in to polling places on Election Day. You'll have to stand in line, surrender your ballot & vote in person like everyone else.
What if someone cannot surrender the Mail Ballot that was supposedly sent to them, because they NEVER received it – can they vote on Election Day? Are there complications? Do they have to cast a Provisional Ballot?
Wow, that seems stupid and wasteful. You should be able to turn in your ballot at the polling place and be done with it. In the past I used to take my mom's VbM ballot in to the polling place when I voted in person. Now I just vote by depositing my ballot in a county drop box in the park near me. My mom aged out of the electorate; I wish she and her sister lived long enough to see the first woman POTUS.
Let's win the state legislature(I am betting the change is made on this in the first few weeks of the session; also, allow counting of the mail ballots at 7AM, morning of E-day, which is why Florida is so damn fast)
Great to see the Ballot Edge growing, hopefully beyond 400k when all is said and done.
Joshua Smithley has some interesting comments on the latest Marist poll of Pennsylvania – especially their numbers on Mail Ballot vs Election Day voting – which I am quoting here so it doesn’t disappear in the midst of their other polling:
"One of the best recent PA pollsters bar none, IMO. I hold them in very high esteem. With RVs, the POTUS topline is actually 51-47 Harris. Similar movement to what Fox and a few others have found.
For vote methods, Harris wins those already voted (VBM) 63-35 while Trump, if nothing changes, wins ED 54-44.
While this does not mean they'll be accurate again, a reminder that [Marist was] the only pollster this late in the game who essentially not only nailed the PA SEN '22 race by margin, but toplines too."
Votes already in (using the 63-25 mentioned above)
KH - 1063787
DT - 590992
Assuming higher turnout for total (so going with 7.2 million votes - just using it)
Votes left = 5,511,449 - If DT get 55% and KH 45% of left (numbers above)
KH - 2480152
DT - 3031299
Totals
KH 3.543m
DT 3.622m
diff -79,000 (This does not count ballots to be returned - higher D)
If I use the same math leading up to ED, I bet this number is better for us, and this assumes KH loses ED vote by 10%. If she loses it by 9% or less, its much better.
The ballot splits Stephen just posted suggest Harris should be up 23 among people who already voted. If she's actually up 28 among this group, she's winning indies handily and/or getting more crossover votes than Trump is. The early vote skews heavily old. On the one hand most Demosaurs who often vote GOP are seniors, but on the other hand the GOP group that I'd think would be most likely to cross over would be older women who have always been registered GOP but can't take Trump anymore.
I feel like Dan Bishop's opposition could be making a bigger deal out of Bishop's opposition to FEMA funding, given the damage to huge swaths of western NC from Helene a month ago.
Makes me feel less good about the MI and PA polls with such pie-in-the-sky Senate numbers.
Casey winning by 7 wouldn't be that shocking. Slotkin by 10 seems like an outlier, though.
There's good and bad ways to look at it.
Good: the presidential undecided voters lean blue, as seen by them voting for democrats for senate.
Bad: the poll over-sampled dem voters yet still failed to see large Harris leads.
Only a few days left to see what the reality is...
the Democrat Senate Candidates are at 49-51%
Baldwin50%
Casey 50%
Rosen 51%
Slotkin 51%
Gallego 49%
That is 1-3 points better than Harris. It is the Republican candidate that is underperforming.
We saw in the Marist poll a convergence of the Senate and Presidential numbers
Slotkin again outperforming the other Senate Dems.
It's the state advantage
Yeah, 150 sample size is not enough to draw any conclusion. For what's worth, in Florida's 2020 exit poll, Puerto Ricans voted for Biden over Trump 69 to 31.
Any competitive Orlando-area House races or did the gerrymander foreclose on that?
I don't think there's any competitive House race around Orlando.
None that I know of but most definitely state House seats are in play
Given the blatant hate being spewed by trump and his minions I could easily see 1/2 to 2/3 of the trump voting Puerto Ricans in FL telling the repubs to F. O. and would now vote for Kamala
1/2 would be bad.
Really? Seems like peeling off half of the Puerto Ricans who would have voted for Trump would be great. That would turn a (hypothetical) 64-36 Harris lead among all PR voters to 82-18.
I think you misunderstood his point here(apologies if I am wrong)
I misread that. Yeah, it would be.
I hope it's Melania Trump. LOL
In a joint appearance on stage with George W Bush, Mitt Romney and John Kelly – all endorsing Kamala Harris.
i think the final rally is at the Philadelphia Museum Monday night from 5-9 with special musical guest. Taylor Swift is off that night and she is from the Philly suburb area. Philadelphia election day turnout is key. Pittsburgh is from 3-7pm
Let's hope it has a happier ending than the last campaign that ended with a Monday evening rally in Philly.
I thought the same thing.
Doesn't appear to have a website, so it could be a fake.
On their list of pollster ratings, 538 lists something called Liberty Opinion Research but no Liberty Insight Research. The latter’s oldest Tweet is from 27 September this year. Here is their feed:
https://nitter.poast.org/LibertyInsightR
Yeah, I don't see this as worth the pixels. Disinformation seems to be the moat likely root here. A new account citing an unknown pollster with only showing top lines? Yeah, no
I reluctantly agree. Especially since split ticking voting for President/Senate is dying a slow and painful death. There will absolutely be some of that. Especially in Maryland where Angela Alsobrooks is running far behind VP Harris. Not enough, however that it will save any candidates for Senate. For Governor that's a different story. Especially in North Carolina and New Hampshire. The latter where too many people STILL buy into the myth of the "moderate Republican."
I will be contrarian and pick Tester by less than 1/2 of 1%
Keep hope alive!
Here is hoping!
At this point, I'd just toss them on the pile with the likes of Activote and Atlas Intel. Reminds me of that obscure 1 time pollster in 2012 - Pharos Research Group. Does anyone remember them? They arrived outta nowhere and promptly vanished after 2012. Tbf they did provide crosstabs and called quite a few races correctly.
Pharos was a fraudulent pollster, I mostly remember them for the polls they spit out in Kentucky showing democrats doing far better then they actually did
They may not show up 5 November.
Am I a troll because I don’t automatically assume that there’s suddenly going to be an Election Day surge of left-leaning voters who haven’t bothered to turn out? Or because I question your assumptions?
"Troll" is an unfair characterization here, I think. It's a justifiable if pessimistic view that Democrats will have lower turnout this year based on early vote returns. I don't inherently agree it's likely to be lower, but it is entirely possible and some of the data we have so far points to that possibility.
And it wouldn't be fair to call those commenters trolls either.
The reality is the data we have is inconsistent, and can be interpreted or extrapolated in several directions in ways that make sense individually but are incongruent with eachother.
This isn't 2010 or 2008 where all evidence was pointing in exactly the same direction. We have bimodal (or trimodal in some cases) data in polling, we have disparate turnout patterns from state to state. Comparing to previous cycles is difficult as 2020 voting patterns was clearly an anomaly, yet voting patterns have not reverted to what they were previously, so we are left with some bastardized new normal that none of us can confidently say we can accurately map.
The reality is we don't know, and are doing our best to interpret an in-process election that doesn't have a good baseline. Just because one person's interpretation doesn't match another's doesn't make either person a troll.
Great post here. Tired of the unwarranted confidence one way or another. None of the data we have before us precludes either a Harris or Trump win. Even a comfortable win from either would not directly contradict anything we are currently seeing. I'm begging the handful of people who are getting most worked up arguing about this to just take a break for a little bit. We'll all see who was right and wrong in short order. Then the real analysis can begin.
I'll say this as someone who is a bit more on the pessimistic side. How one expresses their pessimism matters a lot. There's a difference between bringing up (what one believes, in good faith, to be) negative data/trends/concerns, and just plain dooming. And... it can be tough. Rhetoric is a hard skill for many people. I don't think Oceanblaze17 is trolling at all - I would have worded that post differently, though.
The best I can advise is for posters to ask: what will be the impact of posting this message that has pessimism? Is it to get more information? Or just to cause a panic?
I want/need my hopium just as much as everybody, but also I know there is room for interpretations of the data that are pessimistic.
Link to show that data? A source?
You are not a self-appointed moderator, and do not accuse people of being trolls. You have way too long a history of combative behavior on our site. My patience is thin. If you engage in this behavior again, you're getting a timeout, and it may last through Election Day.
This isn't Daily Kos, but I'll remind former Kossacks that there was good reason that publicly accusing another commenter of trolling was technically bannable. It's not conducive to a good forum climate to have folks making wild accusations over disagreements.
Indeed. That was a Daily Kos rule, but it was also a Swing State Project rule. Our feeling about the wisdom of that rule has not changed.
Thank you. Rality based Ben the rule for decades
I doubt I'm the only person getting a little bored with this being posted every day.
Polls. I see the Marist polls were posted overnight.
Emerson NV: Harris 48-47
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-nevada-poll-harris-48-trump-47/
Michigan EPIC/MRA: Harris 48 Trump 45 Kennedy 3 Stein 3
https://www.wlns.com/your-local-election-hq/harris-has-slight-lead-over-trump-in-new-michigan-poll/
Suffolk PA: Tied
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/01/pennsylvania-poll-harris-trump/75939000007/
For ease of reference, Marist reported the following:
Pennsylvania 🔵 Harris +2
Wisconsin 🔵 Harris +2
Michigan 🔵 Harris +3
And Senate:
Pennsylvania 🔵 Casey +2
Wisconsin 🔵 Baldwin +3
Michigan 🔵 Slotkin +6
Marist nailed the Pennsylvania senate race in 2022, with their final poll showing a 51-45 Fetterman lead versus a final result of 51-46. Certainly no guarantee they'll get it right again, but given their track record, these carry greater weight than other polls IMO.
What I find most important about these Marist polls is that each Democrat is at or above 50.
This would be the opposite of how I would figure the senate races would play out so interesting to see. Figure Casey & Baldwin would have more distance from Harris's number.
Marist was also very close on the GA Senate race in 2022.
Do you have a link to the Marist polls?
I found the tweet:
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1852199956825727388
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 50% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 48%
Last poll (9/17) - 🟡 Tie
——
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 50% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 48%
——
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 51% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 48%
Already voted
🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +28
🔵 Michigan - Harris +27
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +14
——
Yet to vote
🔴 Pennsylvania - Trump +10
🔴 Michigan - Trump +21
🔴 Wisconsin - Trump +8
Is Epic:Mira Bernie Porn?
I think so. Of the Michigan-based polls, Epic and Glengariff have Harris up 3. Mitchell has Trump up 1, but they have a longstanding GOP bias. MSU has Harris up 4 but they have much less of a track record.
Emerson showing a one point lead in Nevada (and elsewhere) may be better than it looks, as they've said they've gone out of their way to try and capture Trump voters that pollsters may have missed in the past. But the early vote data from the state so far is of course mixed at best.
PA:
The data out of Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap. The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/early-voting-data-shows-new-voters-group-swing-election-rcna178187
In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612
So lots of enthusiasm from our seniors.
Cook:
In our final House ratings, we're shifting six races towards Dems and two towards Republicans.
https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1852318466398687478/photo/1
CO-03 - Likely R -> Lean R (Boebert’s old seat)
MN-02 - Lean D -> Likely D (Craig)
NE-02 - Toss-Up -> Lean D (Bacon)
NH-02 - Likely D -> Solid D
NY-04 - Toss-Up -> Lean D (D’Esposito)
OR-06 - Lean D -> Likely D (Salinas)
MD-06 - Likely D -> Lean D (Trone)
MI-07 - Toss-Up -> Lean R (Slotkin’s old seat)
Agreed this is nothing but Cook waiting until the last minute for drama; while they will chicken out on the 'real' races by labeling them as 'Tossup'(they do this every cycle); Larry Sabato will call every single race by Monday night
I should add that Cook has a positive trend here towards Democrats(my previous criticism still stands)
Curious what they see in CO-03. I always thought it was Lean R just because Frisch has run an excellent well-funded campaign but the damn pvi of the seat is tough and Bobert is not around to be a foil. My guess in 2022 was Frisch had a 47% cap and he ended up at 49.9% so I hope to wrong on this one again.
Another curious one is MD-06, anyone see any reason for that? It seems like the kind of area that has been zooming left during the Trump Years.
I really don't. One plausible theory might be that the leadership of both parties have taken more of an interest in it, but if it were so competitive then wouldn't the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund have included it in its final 34 districts announced yesterday receiving investment? Steve Scalise did take the time yesterday to appear at a rally with Neil Parrott, who said he'd join the Freedom Caucus if elected. That is not going to win over voters in Montgomery and Frederick Counties--two thirds of the district.
Meanwhile, April McClain Delaney dropped some more of her own money into the contest which many have taken as a sign of competitiveness, but she's self funded far less than her husband--or Trone--ever did.
Another idea I've heard is that Hogan's Senate bid indicated that Republicans are seriously competing in the district and he may have coattails. As if the presidential race doesn't exist?
(Hogan seems likely to lose statewide by a significant margin with recent polls showing him down by double digits, and may not even carry the 6th at that rate. He probably will but not with the coattails to pull Parrott or anyone else through.)
"Another idea I've heard is that Hogan's Senate bid indicated that Republicans are seriously competing in the district and he may have coattails. As if the presidential race doesn't exist?" Yeah from what you say even if Hogan had coattails, Parrott is running as a freedom caucus MAGA loon and the Presidential race does set the tone. If he was running as pragmatist tied to the hip to Hogan then I could see a path that would justify Lean D.
Yeah, Parrott running as a Freedom Caucus guy like Andy Harris over on the Eastern Shore seems bizarre for a district mostly based in MoCo and Frederick, but you also have to think that most of the GOP primary voters aren't from either of those areas. Certainly not the best fit for a reach D district in a Presidential year.
And ironically, perhaps, Parrott isn't the furthest right of the candidates they could have chosen. For a real MAGA loon they could have picked Dan Cox.
Parrott's actually played things somewhat smarter than many other Republicans in blue-leaning or purple districts; he for example doesn't to my knowledge feature Trump in ads or campaign lit (though I don't know what he might be putting out in the red parts of the district.) But I can't fathom why he thought that featuring the Freedom Caucus and GOP congressional leadership is a good closing argument.
Leaving five CA seats as toss-ups (out of 22 nationally).
5 GOP-held CA seats as Tossup out of 12 GOP Tossup seats nationally.
Virginia: Harris 51-41
Roanoke poll.
https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_election_2024
But...I thought VA was a toss-up?!
Trump campaigned there yesterday, right? Fools gold
Tomorrow in Suburban Roanoke, in the SW panhandle. Very safe MAGA area.
I've lived in Virginia for nearly 30 years of my life, more than 10 of them in the Roanoke media market, and I've never once heard of a "panhandle" of Virginia.
What do you call that thin area between WV & NC then? I'm from PA & only travelled thru on vacations to the south so I don't know what locals call it.
Southwest Virginia
And in other news, Trump claims he would win California and New York if Jesus was in charge of counting the votes.
Did he say that?
Yes, he has. I heard it in one of his interviews but don’t remember which.
Jesus who? I mean, the Miami Marlins have Jesus Luzardo and Jesus Tinoco, but they are busy counting strikeouts, and days til spring training.
As we well know, Trump wouldn’t trust either one. Moreover, having either Jesús as scorekeeper on the greens of Mar-a-Lago would severely impact Trump’s handicap in an honest direction. Intolerable!
A considerably wider margin than their last poll, in August, though Harris led even then. I hope my alma mater gets the result right, though I'm glad I'm not there this weekend as Trump chose the nearby Salem Civic Center for a rally. Then again, if he wants to waste the last few days in states he won't win, maybe I shouldn't complain....
I was a student at Roanoke when they did their first political horserace poll in 1994, when they showed Sen.Chuck Robb leading Oliver North in a nationally much-watched race that most others showed as a tossup at best. And Roanoke's numbers ultimately proved right (not that they've always been since.)
The reddest corner of a state he won’t win, at that; it’s not like he’s going to Virginia Beach to help Kiggans
Actually the Roanoke/Salem area is a lot less red than most of the panhandle to the southwest (except Blacksburg and Radford.)
When I lived in VA (1990s) SW VA actually often voted blue, similar to nearby West Virginia. That was when the Richmond area was beet red outside the city, and Hampton Roads and even NOVA were purple at best.
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (updated: 70 MILLION have voted!)
(UPDATE, 8:45pm) Numerous states are over 50% of their total 2020 turnout: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Washington. Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and Texas have surpassed 60%. Meanwhile, Tennessee has exceeded 70%, while Georgia is just a hair under 80% of its total vote in the 2020 election.
More than 70 million people have already voted, with over 37.2 million voting Early In-Person, and more than 32.7 million voting by Mail Ballot.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for seven swing states plus Florida and Texas:
GA 79.6% 3,997,121
TX 69.7% 7,913,082
NC 69.6% 3,860,705*
NV 67.3% 947,038
FL 65.5% 7,299,183*
AZ 63.8% 2,183,594
MI 46.2% 2,580,006
WI 40.4% 1,338,728
PA 24% 1,672,807
*) States that report party registration
Other key states, MT/OH/NE are included because of vital Senate races:
MT 59.1% 361,865
VA 44.4% 2,008,586
OH 36.9% 2,206,253
NE 31.3% 303,116*
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Maine: SUSA poll for "Fair Vote" has Golden up big in ME 2 and Trump up 49-44. Harris up 51-43 in the state overall.
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2024/11/01/politics/elections/new-poll-jared-golden-donald-trump-leading-maines-2nd-district-joam40zk0w/
Interesting, given that other polls have had Golden’s challenger, Austin Theriault, leading. While the most conservative Democratic Congressman, Golden may be important to Dems flipping the House.
As someone who lives in his very-Red district (ME-02), I find the poll’s indication of split voting credible. If anything might sink Golden’s reelection bid, it will sadly be his support for very-modest gun control legislation after the horrific massacre in Golden’s home town of Lewiston.
Once again we see polling with a huge gender gap: "A gender gap was noticeable among the presidential candidates. Trump leads by 4 points statewide among men in first-place votes, while Harris leads by 21 points among women."
How well has Golden campaigned this year?
Well enough. The issue this year is that his opponent would be tailor-made for the district, if you added about five years to his age. Seemed to be a common sentiment that he comes off like a kid when I was there over the summer.
49-44 isn't that red considering the sheer number of ridiculous red districts in this country. There's hope there.
Just like I've been saying all year: Harris wins ME-01 by 15, Trump wins ME-02 by 6, Harris wins statewide by 10.
Do you mean 25 in ME1? Otherwise that would come out to 5 points statewide, not 10.
You're right. I think before I was saying: Harris by 20 in ME-01, Trump by 5 in ME-02, Harris statewide by 9.
New Mexico SUSA: Harris 50-44.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b13e1d14-aeb8-4fbf-9e61-8aeb4cc2b045
Latino poll FIU: Harris 57-33.
https://wsvn.com/news/politics/new-poll-from-fiu-reveals-latinos-favor-kamala-harris-for-president-highlights-inflation-and-immigration-as-key-concerns-among-the-community/
For me one of the biggest tells for the Latino vote is the CA22 race. The Dem base in that district is almost entirely noncollege Latinos. If Dem support among that group were really cratering, Harris would be struggling to win the district and Valadao would be cruising. Instead the polling we've seen has shown Harris winning easily and Salas tied or slightly ahead, and more importantly both campaigns are acting like the House race is a tossup.
The thing is is that the Latino vote just isn't monolithic at all (as I'm sure you know). My sense is that Democrats have held up better with Mexican-Americans better than some other groups, which I'm guessing you see in CA-22.
Other than Cubans, which Hispanic groups do you think have seen the most Democratic slippage?
Venezuelans and Brazilians are the two groups off the top of my head.
Are there any districts / states where they are a significant part of the voting population? Just wondering if there is slippage how much it would matter.
Looking at Pew almost half of Venezuelans live in Florida with 15% living in Texas. There's a large Brazilian community around Orlando which unsurprisingly is where Bolsonaro spent the first months of his ex-Presidency seeing if Biden would grant him political asylum (spoiler alert, no).
You could say it's mostly a Florida problem politically, but a vote here and vote there in a swing state...
Do Brazilians count as Latino voters. Technically, they should not count as Hispanic, given that means Spanish Speaking heritage.
I don't think we should try to read that level of detail into very broad cultural categories.
Brazil is in Latin America. They are non-Hispanic Latinos, like Belizeans or Guyanese. On the other hand Portuguese Americans are not Latino if their ancestry is from Portugal, not Brazil. So Reps. Valadao, Costa and former Rep. Devin Nunes are probably not Latino and definitely not Hispanic. That is my opinion; others may differ...
They are Latino but not Hispanic. These groups have alot of overlap, and frankly are somewhat ill defined (really both, in the popular mind, basically mean brown, but not black people, from South of the US border.)
Of course, CA-22 is atypical of majority Latino districts in having been historically represented by GOP Congressmembers. I've written at length on DKE in the past about why the Central Valley seats are atypical of the Latino vote generally.
I read somewhere today that Latino/a voters are coming back home to the Democrats because of the floating garbage thing and especially Bad Bunny's endorsement of Harris. Perhaps they would have come back anyway as the race becomes real. I think/hope other dubious demos are coming home now too.
Another great turnout in the City of Milwaukee. Halloween again bested the previous day with 6,875 people showing up to early vote in person, 1,476 were by people who registered at the polls.
To date 52,213 people have voted early in person in the City of Milwaukee, of those 7,176 registered to vote at an early voting location. Not including yesterday Milwaukee had 79,222 ballots returned this number includes mailed ballots), the city predicted 80,000 total for the early voting period, so we’re going to easily blast through that and land between 90-95,000.
Milwaukee will continue to have early voting sites through the weekend, but today is the last day to register at the polls until Election Day.
Thanks for the updates(always appreciated)
Friday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
2,673 new requests, R+528. Final request advantage now down to D+485,711
62,845 ballot returns, D+6,246. Overall ballot advantage now D+394,056. Original Firewall has been hit.
Total Requests (FINAL?):
D - 1,199,558 (54.65%)
R - 713,847 (32.52%)
O - 281,709 (12.83%)
Total - 2,195,114
Total Returns:
D - 947,214 (78.96% return rate)
R - 553,158 (77.49%)
O - 188,179 (66.80%)
Total - 1,688,551
Imo this is good news for John McCain; I expect that the E-day margins will be much closer this year than in 2020; other opinions are most welcome
Based on who has (reportedly) voted so far, Election Day will still be red but it will be way, way closer.
Exactly my opinion
Yup. See the details I quoted in the Marist poll: a 28% gap vs 10% on ED.
Good news for John McCain – who would surely be voting for Kamala in 2024.
Using the updated firewall calculation [D-R+(O*.4)], the current advantage is Harris+469,328 or 27.79%. So that gap in EV includes about 450 of 553k GOPers voting for Harris.
Is that a typo? 450 of 553000 is less than 0.1%. I expect the actual percentage of Rs who vote for Harris to be significantly larger than that.
Re-calculated: 28% of 1.688 million (the current # of ballots received) is 472,794. So using the updated firewall formula, the # of GOP EV the Marist poll suggests Harris will win is 3,467 or 0.63%. Almost eight times as many as before but still very low. I don't believe that figure either.
It's always good news for John McCain!
Return gap continues to close as expected. 506k ballots are outstanding, 51.3k are from Democrats in Philadelphia & 32.3k from Allegheny Democrats. Philadelphia finally hit 70% returned. Luzerne is still lagging. Erie, with all their issues, still at 16.3k outstanding.
Are voters allowed to bring their mail ballots to the precinct\County BOE or maybe both?(or is it a must mail rule?)
Satellite locations are open thru Monday, obviously more are open on weekends. Only the county offices are open on Election Day. Completed ballots CANNOT be turned in to polling places on Election Day. You'll have to stand in line, surrender your ballot & vote in person like everyone else.
Thanks for all your great posts
What if someone cannot surrender the Mail Ballot that was supposedly sent to them, because they NEVER received it – can they vote on Election Day? Are there complications? Do they have to cast a Provisional Ballot?
Provisional ballot.
Wow, that seems stupid and wasteful. You should be able to turn in your ballot at the polling place and be done with it. In the past I used to take my mom's VbM ballot in to the polling place when I voted in person. Now I just vote by depositing my ballot in a county drop box in the park near me. My mom aged out of the electorate; I wish she and her sister lived long enough to see the first woman POTUS.
Welcome to Pennsylvania, where the GOP-held Legislature holds PA hostage on many things.
Let's win the state legislature(I am betting the change is made on this in the first few weeks of the session; also, allow counting of the mail ballots at 7AM, morning of E-day, which is why Florida is so damn fast)
Great to see the Ballot Edge growing, hopefully beyond 400k when all is said and done.
Joshua Smithley has some interesting comments on the latest Marist poll of Pennsylvania – especially their numbers on Mail Ballot vs Election Day voting – which I am quoting here so it doesn’t disappear in the midst of their other polling:
"One of the best recent PA pollsters bar none, IMO. I hold them in very high esteem. With RVs, the POTUS topline is actually 51-47 Harris. Similar movement to what Fox and a few others have found.
For vote methods, Harris wins those already voted (VBM) 63-35 while Trump, if nothing changes, wins ED 54-44.
While this does not mean they'll be accurate again, a reminder that [Marist was] the only pollster this late in the game who essentially not only nailed the PA SEN '22 race by margin, but toplines too."
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1852211493128868164#m
If both major parties turn in ballots at the rate they did in 2022 (88% each), the split would be roughly D+427.4k.
So back of the envelope math:
Votes already in (using the 63-25 mentioned above)
KH - 1063787
DT - 590992
Assuming higher turnout for total (so going with 7.2 million votes - just using it)
Votes left = 5,511,449 - If DT get 55% and KH 45% of left (numbers above)
KH - 2480152
DT - 3031299
Totals
KH 3.543m
DT 3.622m
diff -79,000 (This does not count ballots to be returned - higher D)
If I use the same math leading up to ED, I bet this number is better for us, and this assumes KH loses ED vote by 10%. If she loses it by 9% or less, its much better.
The ballot splits Stephen just posted suggest Harris should be up 23 among people who already voted. If she's actually up 28 among this group, she's winning indies handily and/or getting more crossover votes than Trump is. The early vote skews heavily old. On the one hand most Demosaurs who often vote GOP are seniors, but on the other hand the GOP group that I'd think would be most likely to cross over would be older women who have always been registered GOP but can't take Trump anymore.
I feel like Dan Bishop's opposition could be making a bigger deal out of Bishop's opposition to FEMA funding, given the damage to huge swaths of western NC from Helene a month ago.