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Mike in MD's avatar

And now, for something that you've all been waiting for for two years....

The Cook Political Report's new 2025 PVI's, incorporating the results of the 2020 and 2024 elections.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2025-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list

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Andrew's avatar

I hate PVI. I prefer knowing how Harris did or how Biden did, not adding stuff together and trying to make up some fancy math crap for no reason.

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bpfish's avatar

Totally agree; it's outlived its usefulness in this new age of hyper-polarization. It's a much more useful data point to look at a specific result in the context of that election, rather than average them over time and completely ignore the context of each of the elections involved. Given how much things shift over time, it's sometimes barely useful to use the previous election to predict the next one, let alone TWO previous elections.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Not that I expect Democrats to win them anytime soon, but is it odd or just expected that all of Utah's congressional districts, outside the 4th with Salt Lake City, are ironically shifting bluer than the 4th itself? This is at least according to Cook anyways and they are all R +10. That's within striking distance for a statewide candidate, or even a potential longshot upset.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Looking at the district, UT-04 is only partially in SLC. A lot of the district is in ruby red areas outside the city. Using the precincts specifically it also looks like the part of SLC's urban area in the district is the only red/reddish part of SLC. The city area is split across all four districts. The other three presumably have territory that is more amenable to us and thus why they're trending towards slightly less impossibly red.

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