Sherrill is the stronger candidate in my honest opinion. Well spoken, decorated veteran, down-to-earth congresswoman. Would make a damn good Governor. Her House seat would need filled in a special election, though? The safe choice considering how close Murphy's 2021 reelection was against the possible repeat Republican nominee Ciattarelli, who suggested creating a state-level DOGE in Trenton. Democrats should immediately pounce on that!! 💙🇺🇲
I have a reason for that. In 2024, Trump only gained around 100k votes in NJ (average 1.8 million in 2020 & 1.9 million in 2024), whereas Harris got around 400k LESS than Biden in 2020 (Biden 2.6 million in 2020 & Harris 2.2 million in 2024).
Turnout was 72% in NJ in 2020, dropped 7% down to 65% in 2024, likely reduced DEMOCRATIC turnout, the bad debate Biden had as well as the switcheroo depressed base turnout it seems. Some Independents going to Trump from Biden from 2020 wouldn't have helped either!! 💙🇺🇲
I don't think Spiller will win. The Fulop poll still has Sherrill ahead.
Sherrill is the stronger candidate in my honest opinion. Well spoken, decorated veteran, down-to-earth congresswoman. Would make a damn good Governor. Her House seat would need filled in a special election, though? The safe choice considering how close Murphy's 2021 reelection was against the possible repeat Republican nominee Ciattarelli, who suggested creating a state-level DOGE in Trenton. Democrats should immediately pounce on that!! 💙🇺🇲
Yeah, I thought that 2021's unexpectedly-close margin was due to Covid, but seeing how New Jersey voted in 2024, I'm not so sure now.
I have a reason for that. In 2024, Trump only gained around 100k votes in NJ (average 1.8 million in 2020 & 1.9 million in 2024), whereas Harris got around 400k LESS than Biden in 2020 (Biden 2.6 million in 2020 & Harris 2.2 million in 2024).
Turnout was 72% in NJ in 2020, dropped 7% down to 65% in 2024, likely reduced DEMOCRATIC turnout, the bad debate Biden had as well as the switcheroo depressed base turnout it seems. Some Independents going to Trump from Biden from 2020 wouldn't have helped either!! 💙🇺🇲
[BItter comments about the Democratic base failing to recognize the threat of Trump withheld]
Yes, there would be a special election. With a Republican in the White House, Democrats should not have much of a problem holding it.