I'm still deeply skeptical of Paxton losing in a reddish-purple state like Texas. TX voters keep sending that monster Greg Abbott back to the governor's mansion.
I'm still deeply skeptical of Paxton losing in a reddish-purple state like Texas. TX voters keep sending that monster Greg Abbott back to the governor's mansion.
This was from February, Trump has lost all goodwill from the swing Latinos by now. Demographics is still destiny but you need to listen to people on issues like Immigration and not sort everyone into neat identities.
At the very least, it will be much closer than 2018 Beto even in the gubernatorial race if Talarico runs. There were far too many Beto-Abbott voters in 2018.
Talarico has a shot of beating Abbott, because odds are good that voters are tired of Abbott's MAGA antics (as well as FDJT's highly unpopular DOGE program) and want someone else. Talarico comes off a moderate white guy like Beshear with progressive credentials against the evil, corrupt Abbott.
But Paxton? Seems like that guy gets away with a lot of shit and TX Rs are OK with it. I want to be proven wrong next year if both the governor and Senate seats in TX flip blue, I'm still wary.
Paxton is the most right wing politician in America other than Vance or Robinson maybe. He is a corrupt ultraconservative who's voiced support for recriminalizing and arresting homosexuals and is disapproved in state polls. Only the MAGA base loves him. The article says that the reason CornynтАЩs not giving up is because he's disgusted by Paxton. He was acquitted only in the Republican Senate after huge outside pressure. Just imagine at the very least, the millions and millions the GOP will waste in the primary as well as the general election next year.
I do like the idea of Rs spending hundreds of millions to keep a safe red Senate seat and less money going to vulnerable ones like Tillis and Collins. Hopefully it'd backfire on them like it did with Elon Musk and the SCOWI race earlier this month.
Generically I think Paxton is weaker than Cruz was when he narrowly won in 2018. He doesn't have incumbency and is seen as more radical. That said, Texas was 4.7 points more red in 2024 than in 2016, but it would be in play and a lot would depend on how much Trump's standing with Latinos erodes.
I think the ticket to Dems winning races in Texas is a combination of how low-propensity the GOP's 2024 electorate was, the state's increasing urbanization, and the state GOP being absolutely batshit fucking insane. Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick, and the people who are very likely to come after them as candidates for Governor and Senate are going to be very weak. People like Crenshaw won't make it out of the primary so once Abbott and Cornyn leave office, I think we'll see more candidates who are at best Ted Cruz-level performers.
In whichever state, the local whites and fundamentalists start losing a bit of their political power, the state GOP goes batshit insane. I am not being racist but I read this in an analysis a long time back.
It's happening here in NC. NC GOP has had a Republican legislative majority since 2011, they gained a supermajority and went batshit insane with it in 2016-2018 (and in 2023-2024 when that traitor Cotham backstabbed her party). That's why they're fighting so hard to steal that state Supreme Court seat because we now have a Democratic party chair who is fighting back tooth and nail.
I'm still deeply skeptical of Paxton losing in a reddish-purple state like Texas. TX voters keep sending that monster Greg Abbott back to the governor's mansion.
This was from February, Trump has lost all goodwill from the swing Latinos by now. Demographics is still destiny but you need to listen to people on issues like Immigration and not sort everyone into neat identities.
At the very least, it will be much closer than 2018 Beto even in the gubernatorial race if Talarico runs. There were far too many Beto-Abbott voters in 2018.
Talarico has a shot of beating Abbott, because odds are good that voters are tired of Abbott's MAGA antics (as well as FDJT's highly unpopular DOGE program) and want someone else. Talarico comes off a moderate white guy like Beshear with progressive credentials against the evil, corrupt Abbott.
But Paxton? Seems like that guy gets away with a lot of shit and TX Rs are OK with it. I want to be proven wrong next year if both the governor and Senate seats in TX flip blue, I'm still wary.
Paxton is the most right wing politician in America other than Vance or Robinson maybe. He is a corrupt ultraconservative who's voiced support for recriminalizing and arresting homosexuals and is disapproved in state polls. Only the MAGA base loves him. The article says that the reason CornynтАЩs not giving up is because he's disgusted by Paxton. He was acquitted only in the Republican Senate after huge outside pressure. Just imagine at the very least, the millions and millions the GOP will waste in the primary as well as the general election next year.
I do like the idea of Rs spending hundreds of millions to keep a safe red Senate seat and less money going to vulnerable ones like Tillis and Collins. Hopefully it'd backfire on them like it did with Elon Musk and the SCOWI race earlier this month.
Generically I think Paxton is weaker than Cruz was when he narrowly won in 2018. He doesn't have incumbency and is seen as more radical. That said, Texas was 4.7 points more red in 2024 than in 2016, but it would be in play and a lot would depend on how much Trump's standing with Latinos erodes.
I think the ticket to Dems winning races in Texas is a combination of how low-propensity the GOP's 2024 electorate was, the state's increasing urbanization, and the state GOP being absolutely batshit fucking insane. Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick, and the people who are very likely to come after them as candidates for Governor and Senate are going to be very weak. People like Crenshaw won't make it out of the primary so once Abbott and Cornyn leave office, I think we'll see more candidates who are at best Ted Cruz-level performers.
In whichever state, the local whites and fundamentalists start losing a bit of their political power, the state GOP goes batshit insane. I am not being racist but I read this in an analysis a long time back.
It's happening here in NC. NC GOP has had a Republican legislative majority since 2011, they gained a supermajority and went batshit insane with it in 2016-2018 (and in 2023-2024 when that traitor Cotham backstabbed her party). That's why they're fighting so hard to steal that state Supreme Court seat because we now have a Democratic party chair who is fighting back tooth and nail.