Generically I think Paxton is weaker than Cruz was when he narrowly won in 2018. He doesn't have incumbency and is seen as more radical. That said, Texas was 4.7 points more red in 2024 than in 2016, but it would be in play and a lot would depend on how much Trump's standing with Latinos erodes.
Generically I think Paxton is weaker than Cruz was when he narrowly won in 2018. He doesn't have incumbency and is seen as more radical. That said, Texas was 4.7 points more red in 2024 than in 2016, but it would be in play and a lot would depend on how much Trump's standing with Latinos erodes.
I think the ticket to Dems winning races in Texas is a combination of how low-propensity the GOP's 2024 electorate was, the state's increasing urbanization, and the state GOP being absolutely batshit fucking insane. Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick, and the people who are very likely to come after them as candidates for Governor and Senate are going to be very weak. People like Crenshaw won't make it out of the primary so once Abbott and Cornyn leave office, I think we'll see more candidates who are at best Ted Cruz-level performers.
In whichever state, the local whites and fundamentalists start losing a bit of their political power, the state GOP goes batshit insane. I am not being racist but I read this in an analysis a long time back.
It's happening here in NC. NC GOP has had a Republican legislative majority since 2011, they gained a supermajority and went batshit insane with it in 2016-2018 (and in 2023-2024 when that traitor Cotham backstabbed her party). That's why they're fighting so hard to steal that state Supreme Court seat because we now have a Democratic party chair who is fighting back tooth and nail.
Generically I think Paxton is weaker than Cruz was when he narrowly won in 2018. He doesn't have incumbency and is seen as more radical. That said, Texas was 4.7 points more red in 2024 than in 2016, but it would be in play and a lot would depend on how much Trump's standing with Latinos erodes.
I think the ticket to Dems winning races in Texas is a combination of how low-propensity the GOP's 2024 electorate was, the state's increasing urbanization, and the state GOP being absolutely batshit fucking insane. Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick, and the people who are very likely to come after them as candidates for Governor and Senate are going to be very weak. People like Crenshaw won't make it out of the primary so once Abbott and Cornyn leave office, I think we'll see more candidates who are at best Ted Cruz-level performers.
In whichever state, the local whites and fundamentalists start losing a bit of their political power, the state GOP goes batshit insane. I am not being racist but I read this in an analysis a long time back.
It's happening here in NC. NC GOP has had a Republican legislative majority since 2011, they gained a supermajority and went batshit insane with it in 2016-2018 (and in 2023-2024 when that traitor Cotham backstabbed her party). That's why they're fighting so hard to steal that state Supreme Court seat because we now have a Democratic party chair who is fighting back tooth and nail.