Seems like with the nonpartisan pollsters coming back, the results in Montana are evening out. Then again, it may just be the deluge of scandals on Sheehy wearing away his purported lead. I will say though that Emerson and Siena are both notorious for producing consistently conservative leaning bias in their results, so there's a possibility that Tester may be tied or even leading. I just wish we had another SurveyUSA poll in Montana for the senate.
My prior is still that Tester is going to lose by mid-single digits (and I usually donāt make predictions) but maybe the scandals really are wearing on Sheehy. Stolen valor especially is a huge no no
I originally did see Tester losing, but a week is a long time in politics and the dynamics have seemingly shifted once more. The last month alone has exposed Sheehy far more than I could've imagined. I have the Montana race as Lean R as of now, but it's not far from a tossup.
there was 6% for third party candidate, 4% for the Libertarian and 2 for the Green. 8% undecided. This was the 18th question in this poll so throw it in the pile
It's a surprisingly good result; could be an outlier, but who knows? One thing I will toss out is that in the first half of October (10/1-10/16), Tester outspent Sheehy $10.57M to $2.38M. This was when the poll was in the field. (It ended on 10/16.) Perhaps Tester's spending made a difference. I sure hope so.
šµ Jon Tester- 43%
š“ Tim Sheehy- 43%
š Tester job approval- 42%
š Tester job disapproval- 41%
š¤·āāļø Neutral- 12%
https://msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2024-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf
Seems like with the nonpartisan pollsters coming back, the results in Montana are evening out. Then again, it may just be the deluge of scandals on Sheehy wearing away his purported lead. I will say though that Emerson and Siena are both notorious for producing consistently conservative leaning bias in their results, so there's a possibility that Tester may be tied or even leading. I just wish we had another SurveyUSA poll in Montana for the senate.
Huh, interesting.
My prior is still that Tester is going to lose by mid-single digits (and I usually donāt make predictions) but maybe the scandals really are wearing on Sheehy. Stolen valor especially is a huge no no
I see Tester losing.
I originally did see Tester losing, but a week is a long time in politics and the dynamics have seemingly shifted once more. The last month alone has exposed Sheehy far more than I could've imagined. I have the Montana race as Lean R as of now, but it's not far from a tossup.
I believe Tester's going to win.
I hope so. It's possible this poll indicates a comeback, but who knows? It could just be a slight outlier, and he could lose by like 5.
Thatās too many undecided voters at this stage to be a credible poll.
there was 6% for third party candidate, 4% for the Libertarian and 2 for the Green. 8% undecided. This was the 18th question in this poll so throw it in the pile
It's a surprisingly good result; could be an outlier, but who knows? One thing I will toss out is that in the first half of October (10/1-10/16), Tester outspent Sheehy $10.57M to $2.38M. This was when the poll was in the field. (It ended on 10/16.) Perhaps Tester's spending made a difference. I sure hope so.