I am very hopeful that Democrats will flip most of these 17 House seats. Many of these Democratic challengers are receiving support from Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium community. I’ve included the poll numbers I’ve seen; strikingly, all except Mondair Jones are leading or even with the Republican incumbent.
Very encouraging to read today about Carl Marling receiving much-needed financial support!
o Amish Shah (AZ-01), +1
o Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), +1
o Adam Gray (CA-13), Even
o Rudy Salas (CA-22), +2
o George Whitesides (CA-27), +3
o Will Rollins (CA-41), +6
o Derek Tran (CA-45), Even
o Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Even
o Carl Marlinga (MI-10)
o Tony Vargas (NE-02), +5
o Sue Altman (NJ-07)
o Laura Gillen (NY-04), +3
o Mondaire Jones (NY-17), –5
o Josh Riley (NY-19), +3
o Janelle Bynum (OR-5), +2
o Janelle Stelson (PA-10), +1
o Mannion vs Williams (NY-22), +7
(Sorry about my untidy post. I don’t know how to format a table in a comment.)
I know very little about Mondaire Jones, but have seen some here express the view that he’s not a great candidate. But Jones has a tough opponent in Mike Lawler, reportedly one of the most bipartisan Republicans in the House.
Allegedly bipartisan. Like Susan Collins, it’s all about media presentation and only supporting or opposing stuff that already has enough votes for an GOP-favored outcome and rarely being the deciding vote.
While I am no great fan of Susan Collins, it must in fairness be said that she votes to confirm the vast majority of President Biden’s judicial nominations – and sometimes is the deciding vote.
That said, she was a fool not to vote against the ascendancy of Brett Kavanaugh..
Then again, Susan Collins also bankrolled the Iraq War. She wasn't exactly on the side of the argument when it came to ending the war, especially after the midterms.
From what I've read, Collins' re-election margins have been the way they are because of how she's served constituents and remains connected to Maine.
However, in 2026 should Collins run for re-election, depending on how turnout fares, she may likely face a tougher election fight. She won re-election by single digits (8.6%) against a lackluster Democratic Candidate Sara Gideon.
If Collins decides to retire, it will be easier for Democrats to win the seat.
Gideon was the Speaker of the State House. Collins has defeated very credible candidates, and she makes them look lackluster because she is extremely good at winning her state. She will not get defeated if she runs again.
That may be so. However, in the eyes of Maine voters, Sara Gideon ran a Democratic insider's campaign for the Senate, which clouded her ability to get traction. She was not running a campaign that fits what appeals to Mainers with the DSCC and PAC interests flooding in.
Here's a video illustrating what happened to Gideon's campaign. It was considered DOA from the beginning.
However, the percentage of Collins' re-election win in 2020 I see as more representative of how her vote for Brett Kavanaugh impacted her politically. She did take a hit but it's still not even representative of a close race. I have no reason to doubt Collins will win re-election but I am not convinced it's going to be as wide in double digits as it used to be.
The biggest problem in that district is the Republican Working Families Party plant that just barely beat Jones in their primary for the nomination. Jones has about 2% of the vote he won’t receive on the left, so his bar for victory is higher than most other swing seat Democrats sadly.
EricAZ had an article too on DK that AZ 2, the massive district that covers almost half the state including the Navajo, Hopi and Apache nations is close enough to be in play. I wouldn't have thought of flipping a seat beyond 1 and 6 in AZ. This would be precious to flip as Nez, the D, is Navajo, and the district includes ultra red Yavapai County (Prescott).
Tom lost by almost 8, and he was probably a stronger candidate than the recent loser of the Navajo Presidency. Against that, 2024 is a presidential year, and low propensity turnout in the district favors us. Also, it’s 2 years later and AZ, including parts of the district, is trending left. Also, despite his not winning his most recent tribal race, our challenger IS Navajo and IF there is a perceived chance of him winning that ought to be an energizing factor in native turnout. Also, 2 years of Crane may have given some of his prior supporters and some previously disengaged voters a disgust of his antics, see Boebert in the catercorner district.
I am very hopeful that Democrats will flip most of these 17 House seats. Many of these Democratic challengers are receiving support from Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium community. I’ve included the poll numbers I’ve seen; strikingly, all except Mondair Jones are leading or even with the Republican incumbent.
Very encouraging to read today about Carl Marling receiving much-needed financial support!
o Amish Shah (AZ-01), +1
o Kirsten Engel (AZ-06), +1
o Adam Gray (CA-13), Even
o Rudy Salas (CA-22), +2
o George Whitesides (CA-27), +3
o Will Rollins (CA-41), +6
o Derek Tran (CA-45), Even
o Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Even
o Carl Marlinga (MI-10)
o Tony Vargas (NE-02), +5
o Sue Altman (NJ-07)
o Laura Gillen (NY-04), +3
o Mondaire Jones (NY-17), –5
o Josh Riley (NY-19), +3
o Janelle Bynum (OR-5), +2
o Janelle Stelson (PA-10), +1
o Mannion vs Williams (NY-22), +7
(Sorry about my untidy post. I don’t know how to format a table in a comment.)
Is Jones just a bad campaigner? Any thoughts?
I know very little about Mondaire Jones, but have seen some here express the view that he’s not a great candidate. But Jones has a tough opponent in Mike Lawler, reportedly one of the most bipartisan Republicans in the House.
Allegedly bipartisan. Like Susan Collins, it’s all about media presentation and only supporting or opposing stuff that already has enough votes for an GOP-favored outcome and rarely being the deciding vote.
While I am no great fan of Susan Collins, it must in fairness be said that she votes to confirm the vast majority of President Biden’s judicial nominations – and sometimes is the deciding vote.
That said, she was a fool not to vote against the ascendancy of Brett Kavanaugh..
Fool or knave?
I'd say more calculating at best.
Then again, Susan Collins also bankrolled the Iraq War. She wasn't exactly on the side of the argument when it came to ending the war, especially after the midterms.
https://www.ontheissues.org/senate/susan_collins.htm
Voted NO on redeploying non-essential US troops out of Iraq in 9 months. (Dec 2007)
Voted NO on redeploying US troops out of Iraq by March 2008. (Mar 2007)
Voted NO on redeploying troops out of Iraq by July 2007. (Jun 2006)
Voted NO on investigating contract awards in Iraq & Afghanistan. (Nov 2005)
Voted YES on requiring on-budget funding for Iraq, not emergency funding. (Apr 2005)
Voted YES on $86 billion for military operations in Iraq & Afghanistan. (Oct 2003)
Voted YES on authorizing use of military force against Iraq. (Oct 2002)
I've been impressed by her re-election margins
From what I've read, Collins' re-election margins have been the way they are because of how she's served constituents and remains connected to Maine.
However, in 2026 should Collins run for re-election, depending on how turnout fares, she may likely face a tougher election fight. She won re-election by single digits (8.6%) against a lackluster Democratic Candidate Sara Gideon.
If Collins decides to retire, it will be easier for Democrats to win the seat.
Gideon was the Speaker of the State House. Collins has defeated very credible candidates, and she makes them look lackluster because she is extremely good at winning her state. She will not get defeated if she runs again.
That may be so. However, in the eyes of Maine voters, Sara Gideon ran a Democratic insider's campaign for the Senate, which clouded her ability to get traction. She was not running a campaign that fits what appeals to Mainers with the DSCC and PAC interests flooding in.
Here's a video illustrating what happened to Gideon's campaign. It was considered DOA from the beginning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chUCk-1NVaM&ab_channel=CBSNews
However, the percentage of Collins' re-election win in 2020 I see as more representative of how her vote for Brett Kavanaugh impacted her politically. She did take a hit but it's still not even representative of a close race. I have no reason to doubt Collins will win re-election but I am not convinced it's going to be as wide in double digits as it used to be.
I'm willing to take the other side of the bet particularly if we have a 51-49 R Senate and Collins is the key vote on everything.
He has the issue of explaining running in three different districts in three years.
It's really only 2. This is the same one he represented before redistricting.
Between his district hopping and his stabbing Bowman in the back he’s pissed a lot of people off.
He didn't "stab Bowman in the back". Bowman probably shouldn't have been so friendly with Jones' Republican opponent.
He wasn't very impressive in my district (parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan) 2 years ago. I voted for him, but he came in 3rd, I think.
The biggest problem in that district is the Republican Working Families Party plant that just barely beat Jones in their primary for the nomination. Jones has about 2% of the vote he won’t receive on the left, so his bar for victory is higher than most other swing seat Democrats sadly.
I'm pretty convinced he's not very good at politics
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/16/2270787/-Inside-Elections-Puts-Third-AZ-GOP-House-Seat-in-Play-Great-News-for-Harris-Gallego-and-Nez
EricAZ had an article too on DK that AZ 2, the massive district that covers almost half the state including the Navajo, Hopi and Apache nations is close enough to be in play. I wouldn't have thought of flipping a seat beyond 1 and 6 in AZ. This would be precious to flip as Nez, the D, is Navajo, and the district includes ultra red Yavapai County (Prescott).
One rater moved AZ-02 from Safe R to Likely R.
Is this O'Halleran's old territory?
Mostly, but the allegedly independent redistricting committee cut in Prescott (extremely red) and when O'Halleran ran in 2022, he lost to Crane.
How great would it be to beat Crane!
Tom lost by almost 8, and he was probably a stronger candidate than the recent loser of the Navajo Presidency. Against that, 2024 is a presidential year, and low propensity turnout in the district favors us. Also, it’s 2 years later and AZ, including parts of the district, is trending left. Also, despite his not winning his most recent tribal race, our challenger IS Navajo and IF there is a perceived chance of him winning that ought to be an energizing factor in native turnout. Also, 2 years of Crane may have given some of his prior supporters and some previously disengaged voters a disgust of his antics, see Boebert in the catercorner district.