Mild panic over outstanding ballots. Today's mail could be big. Harris probably wins mail ballots by 505k. 70-30 with Indys sounds right to me. Probably 12-15% GOPers vote Harris, mostly in the Philly suburbs. No turnout expectations. I think my math ended up being Harris by 105k: +465k in Philly, +295k in Philly Suburbs, +180k in Allegheny, -835k in the other 61 counties
Remember: Biden won by 88k. It was only close during the week because Biden won 76% of the mail vote, most of which were counted last. That won't happen this time. Allegheny will announce their full mail tally at 8:01 pm or when they are all counted, which ever comes last. Philly will announce what they have counted at 8pm at 8pm then count the rest later. PA law now requires counties to report how many mail ballots they have left to count at midnight.
Correct. It will be a Blue Mirage that will be slowly chipped away as the rural counties come in until it gets near even or a slight GOP lead before Philly & the Philly Suburbs finish up & give Harris the victory.
Your margin for the Philly suburbs is essentially the same as 2020, but the Allegheny margin's about 30k larger. What could account for the different trajectories?
There was none. 2020 was the first no-excuse mail-in voting election in PA plus Biden won mail by an obscene amount that if there would have been one, it would have been blown away.
Monday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
2,801 new requests, R+532. Final request advantage now down to D+485,179
101,768 ballot returns, D+15,848. Overall ballot advantage now D+409,904. Original Firewall has been hit.
Total Requests (FINAL?):
D - 1,200,466 (54.62%)
R - 715,287 (32.54%)
O - 282,162 (12.84%)
Total - 2,197,915
Total Returns:
D - 997,450 (83.09% return rate)
R - 587,546 (82.14%)
O - 205,323 (72.77%)
Total - 1,790,319
I've got nothing.
Are the new requests from Bucks county because of the extension that was requested?
About 45% were. Some counties are lagging behind.
So just delays in reporting.
407.6k Oustanding Ballots: 42.6k from Philly Democrats, 18.4k from MontCo Dems, 24.85k from Allegheny Dems
PA is just shy of 26% total turnout.
I would be most interested to hear your thoughts on:
тАУ No. of Mail Ballots floating in the USPS systems / unprocessed at counties?
тАУ Additional number of Mail Ballots that will be counted?
тАУ Total non-ED Ballot Edge
тАУ Independent early vote split
тАУ Republican early vote crossover for Harris
тАУ Election Day turnout, party composition, vote composition
тАУ Your Pennsylvania prediction
Mild panic over outstanding ballots. Today's mail could be big. Harris probably wins mail ballots by 505k. 70-30 with Indys sounds right to me. Probably 12-15% GOPers vote Harris, mostly in the Philly suburbs. No turnout expectations. I think my math ended up being Harris by 105k: +465k in Philly, +295k in Philly Suburbs, +180k in Allegheny, -835k in the other 61 counties
Triple-digit victory sounds good. That ought to be well beyond the margin that allows courts or other shenanigans to mess with it!
Remember: Biden won by 88k. It was only close during the week because Biden won 76% of the mail vote, most of which were counted last. That won't happen this time. Allegheny will announce their full mail tally at 8:01 pm or when they are all counted, which ever comes last. Philly will announce what they have counted at 8pm at 8pm then count the rest later. PA law now requires counties to report how many mail ballots they have left to count at midnight.
In short: No Red Mirage in Pennsylvania!
Correct. It will be a Blue Mirage that will be slowly chipped away as the rural counties come in until it gets near even or a slight GOP lead before Philly & the Philly Suburbs finish up & give Harris the victory.
Your margin for the Philly suburbs is essentially the same as 2020, but the Allegheny margin's about 30k larger. What could account for the different trajectories?
What is the source for the 70-30 Indy split? The aviator guy on twitter from the Pittsburgh area (I cannot remember his name).
Joshua Smithley @blockedfreq
What was the firewall in 2020?
There was none. 2020 was the first no-excuse mail-in voting election in PA plus Biden won mail by an obscene amount that if there would have been one, it would have been blown away.
Do you have a gender split?
TargetEarly hasn't changed.