Mild panic over outstanding ballots. Today's mail could be big. Harris probably wins mail ballots by 505k. 70-30 with Indys sounds right to me. Probably 12-15% GOPers vote Harris, mostly in the Philly suburbs. No turnout expectations. I think my math ended up being Harris by 105k: +465k in Philly, +295k in Philly Suburbs, +180k in Allegheny, -835k in the other 61 counties
Remember: Biden won by 88k. It was only close during the week because Biden won 76% of the mail vote, most of which were counted last. That won't happen this time. Allegheny will announce their full mail tally at 8:01 pm or when they are all counted, which ever comes last. Philly will announce what they have counted at 8pm at 8pm then count the rest later. PA law now requires counties to report how many mail ballots they have left to count at midnight.
Correct. It will be a Blue Mirage that will be slowly chipped away as the rural counties come in until it gets near even or a slight GOP lead before Philly & the Philly Suburbs finish up & give Harris the victory.
Your margin for the Philly suburbs is essentially the same as 2020, but the Allegheny margin's about 30k larger. What could account for the different trajectories?
I would be most interested to hear your thoughts on:
– No. of Mail Ballots floating in the USPS systems / unprocessed at counties?
– Additional number of Mail Ballots that will be counted?
– Total non-ED Ballot Edge
– Independent early vote split
– Republican early vote crossover for Harris
– Election Day turnout, party composition, vote composition
– Your Pennsylvania prediction
Mild panic over outstanding ballots. Today's mail could be big. Harris probably wins mail ballots by 505k. 70-30 with Indys sounds right to me. Probably 12-15% GOPers vote Harris, mostly in the Philly suburbs. No turnout expectations. I think my math ended up being Harris by 105k: +465k in Philly, +295k in Philly Suburbs, +180k in Allegheny, -835k in the other 61 counties
Triple-digit victory sounds good. That ought to be well beyond the margin that allows courts or other shenanigans to mess with it!
Remember: Biden won by 88k. It was only close during the week because Biden won 76% of the mail vote, most of which were counted last. That won't happen this time. Allegheny will announce their full mail tally at 8:01 pm or when they are all counted, which ever comes last. Philly will announce what they have counted at 8pm at 8pm then count the rest later. PA law now requires counties to report how many mail ballots they have left to count at midnight.
In short: No Red Mirage in Pennsylvania!
Correct. It will be a Blue Mirage that will be slowly chipped away as the rural counties come in until it gets near even or a slight GOP lead before Philly & the Philly Suburbs finish up & give Harris the victory.
Your margin for the Philly suburbs is essentially the same as 2020, but the Allegheny margin's about 30k larger. What could account for the different trajectories?
What is the source for the 70-30 Indy split? The aviator guy on twitter from the Pittsburgh area (I cannot remember his name).
Joshua Smithley @blockedfreq