Here are my final predictions:
AL: T+26
AK: T+7
AZ: H+0
AR: T+28
CA: H+28
CO: H+15
CT: H+21
DE: H+17
DC: H+87
FL: T+7
GA: H+1
HI: H+28
ID: T+33
IL: H+18
IN: T+15
IA: T+6
KS: T+12
KY: T+26
LA: T+20
ME: H+11
MD: H+32
MA: H+34
MI: H+5
MN: H+8
MS: T+17
MO: T+14
MT: T+15
NE: T+17
NV: H+1
NH: H+8
NJ: H+15
NM: H+11
NY: H+21
NC: H+0
ND: T+34
OH: T+8
OK: T+32
OR: H+17
PA: H+3
RI: H+21
SC: T+12
SD: T+27
TN: T+23
TX: T+4
UT: T+22
VT: H+37
VA: H+10
WA: H+20
WV: T+38
WI: H+2
WY: T+44
As you can tell, I'm not expecting a huge amount of change from 2020. But I do think that Harris will win the closest states, the same way that Biden did.
So you think Selzer ends up being almost 10 pts off from the actual margin for the first time ever?
Like I've said before, polls constitute only 30% of my predictions. And one individual poll is even less than that, even from someone like Selzer.
If not for her poll, I would've predicted T+8. A two-point shift in my predictions based on just one poll is quite a lot.
Those look pretty close to mine, although I don't have Selzer whiffing by that much.
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Here are my final predictions:
AL: T+26
AK: T+7
AZ: H+0
AR: T+28
CA: H+28
CO: H+15
CT: H+21
DE: H+17
DC: H+87
FL: T+7
GA: H+1
HI: H+28
ID: T+33
IL: H+18
IN: T+15
IA: T+6
KS: T+12
KY: T+26
LA: T+20
ME: H+11
MD: H+32
MA: H+34
MI: H+5
MN: H+8
MS: T+17
MO: T+14
MT: T+15
NE: T+17
NV: H+1
NH: H+8
NJ: H+15
NM: H+11
NY: H+21
NC: H+0
ND: T+34
OH: T+8
OK: T+32
OR: H+17
PA: H+3
RI: H+21
SC: T+12
SD: T+27
TN: T+23
TX: T+4
UT: T+22
VT: H+37
VA: H+10
WA: H+20
WV: T+38
WI: H+2
WY: T+44
As you can tell, I'm not expecting a huge amount of change from 2020. But I do think that Harris will win the closest states, the same way that Biden did.
So you think Selzer ends up being almost 10 pts off from the actual margin for the first time ever?
Like I've said before, polls constitute only 30% of my predictions. And one individual poll is even less than that, even from someone like Selzer.
If not for her poll, I would've predicted T+8. A two-point shift in my predictions based on just one poll is quite a lot.
Those look pretty close to mine, although I don't have Selzer whiffing by that much.