Morning Digest: Democrats are contesting a greater share of GOP legislative seats than vice-versa

And much more from our newest data set on state legislatures

State Senate candidate Jodi Habush Sinykin, one of a record number of Democrats running for the Wisconsin legislature this year (credit: Jodi Habush Sinykin campaign site)

Leading Off

State Legislatures

Democrats are contesting a higher proportion of state legislative seats held by Republicans than the reverse, according to new data compiled by The Downballot's James Lambert.

Across the 85 legislative chambers holding regularly scheduled elections in 44 states this year, Republicans are defending 3,169 seats while Democrats are protecting 2,616. But Republicans have failed to field a candidate in 1,066 Democratic seats, while Democrats have left 1,127 GOP seats uncontested.

While the Democratic figure for uncontested seats is slightly higher in raw numbers, on a percentage basis, they're playing more offense: Democrats are challenging Republicans in 64% of GOP-held seats, while Republicans, conversely, are contesting 59% of Democratic seats.

The totals reflect strong Democratic recruitment in many states, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and even Idaho. In total, Democrats are running 2,042 challengers compared to 1,550 for the GOP. When accounting for open seats (which are also tallied in our new data set), Democrats are fielding 2,485 non-incumbents, versus 2,224 for Republicans.

A key reason for the large number of open Republican seats is the huge number of incumbents who've gone down to defeat in primaries. Altogether, 124 GOP legislators who wanted another term were denied renomination by voters, often for allegedly failing to adhere to far-right orthodoxy. Just 28 Democratic lawmakers, by contrast, lost primaries this year.

All told, 4,655 Democrats and 4,711 Republicans are running for legislative office nationwide. However, of the 5,808 seats up this year, only 62% are contested by both major parties.

For more, dig into our new data set, which includes listings of every individual open seat and every seat that's uncontested by one of the two major parties. You can also check out our guide to the top legislative chambers to watch this year.

And as a reminder, we'll be covering the elections live on Tuesday night starting when the first polls close at 6 PM ET. The best place to follow our coverage is on our private Discord server, which is available to paid supporters of The Downballot. It's not too late to upgrade to a paid subscription to join us on Discord for election night!

This new data set would not have been possible without the work of Ballotpedia, which compiles information on legislative candidate filings nationwide.

Ballot Measures

Voters across the nation are about to resolve hundreds of questions on their ballots this year, but while we've written about many this cycle, there are still others we want to highlight below.

Our latest list includes a ballot measure that now involves an Oscar-winning actor; a series of measures pushed by New York City's recently indicted mayor; and questions that could change how, and when, cities conduct their elections.

This rundown is not exhaustive, but we're tracking all of these contests and many, many others. You can find all of these and more on our Nov. 2024 Big Board, and we'll also be publishing a continually updated cheat on election night that we'll link to in tomorrow's Digest.

Of course, many ballot measures attract millions of dollars in spending and national attention, but others are … not so consequential. In Ojai, California, for instance, voters are about to decide whether to reopen four now-closed pickleball courts located at city hall. We do not anticipate placing Measure M on our cheat sheet.

Massachusetts

Two famous Massachusetts expatriates are on opposite sides over a nationally watched ballot measure that would no longer require high school students to pass a standardized test to graduate.

"Our teachers use multiple forms of assessment to determine whether or not a student deserves a diploma or not," the Cambridge-born actor Matt Damon says in a video urging voters in the state of his birth to vote "Yes" on Question 2, which was placed on the ballot thanks to a campaign led by the Massachusetts Teachers Association.

The "Good Will Hunting" star, who now lives in New York, Miami, and Los Angeles, adds that voters should ditch the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System because "[h]igh-stakes testing in general tends to narrow the curriculum and the focus so that teachers are teaching to the test."

But former New York City Michael Bloomberg, who was also born and raised in the Boston area, sees things differently. Bloomberg has donated at least $2.5 million to the Vote No on 2 campaign, which represents just over half of what it raised through last week.

The campaign to defeat Question 2 argues that the MCAS is a key reason why the state's public school system is so well-regarded and that students in low-income communities would be hurt if their schools no longer had statewide graduation requirements to meet.

The race has also divided prominent Democratic politicians. The "yes" side includes Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, while Gov. Maura Healey is urging a "no" vote. A recent poll from Emerson College finds a 54-41 majority in favor of Question 2, while the University of New Hampshire shows a smaller 49-43 plurality voting "yes."

Memphis, TN

Memphis currently requires candidates for mayor to secure only a plurality of the vote, but the passage of Referendum Ordinance No. 5884 would require a runoff if no one wins a majority in the first round. The referendum, which the Democratic-dominated city council placed on the ballot, goes before voters one year after Paul Young was elected mayor by defeating his nearest opponent 28-23 in a 17-person race.

Runoffs have a fraught history in Memphis, which used them in the 1960s as a way for white leaders to remain in power despite the city's growing Black population. A federal court ultimately agreed that Memphis' runoffs were unconstitutional in 1991, the same year the city narrowly elected its first Black mayor, Willie Herenton.

Memphis tried to implement a different election system in 2008 when voters overwhelmingly approved ranked-choice voting, but it's never gone into effect. In 2022, Tennessee's GOP-dominated state legislature made sure it never could by banning the use of ranked-choice voting anywhere in the state.

The return of the runoff seems to be the only alternative to the status quo, but not everyone thinks it's an improvement. City Councilman Jeff Warren argued to Action News 5 that a second round of voting would feature low voter turnout, while critics have also pointed to the added costs of an extra election. But former Council Chairman Martavius Jones sees things differently, telling the station, "We don't put a price tag on democracy."

New Hampshire

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has appointed almost three-quarters of the Granite State's judges, writes New Hampshire Public Radio's Olivia Richardson, and a proposed constitutional amendment would keep his picks on the bench for an extra five years.

New Hampshire requires its judges to retire when they turn 70, but the amendment, which was supported by wide bipartisan majorities in the legislature, would extend the mandatory retirement age to 75. A recent poll from the University of New Hampshire shows a 38-27 plurality planning to vote "no" on an amendment that needs to secure two-thirds of the vote to pass.

New York, NY

New York City's Charter Revision Commission placed five measures on the city ballot this year that have largely turned into a proxy fight between Mayor Eric Adams, who appointed the Commission members, and the City Council. 

Propositions 2 through 6 together would give the mayor more power, often in ways that aren't immediately evident based on their ballot summaries. At least one is outright misleading: As The City's Rachel Kahn noted, Question 2 would give the Department of Sanitation the power to ticket street vendors—something not even mentioned in the summary text voters will see.

Critics, however, are focusing their campaign on Adams, who is under indictment for alleged corruption charges, saying he'd benefit from the passage of these propositions.

"No one person should have this much power," declared Speaker Adrienne Adams. "I don't know about you, but I don't want a king, I want a democracy!"

San Antonio, TX

San Antonio is the largest city in America that elects its mayors to two-year terms, but the passage of Proposition F would extend the terms of mayors and city councilmembers to four years. However, the city's elected officials would still be termed out after eight years.

The vote comes months ahead of next May's race to succeed termed-limited Mayor Ron Nirenberg, who recently began identifying as a Democrat after previously rejecting a party label.

South Dakota

Voters will decide whether to uphold or repeal a new state law authorizing an underground carbon sequestration pipeline, an issue that cost several GOP lawmakers renomination in June. Opponents, who've argued that the pipeline would trample private property interests, helped oust multiple Republican incumbents who've supported the project and placed this referendum on the ballot in the hopes of stopping it for good. A "yes" vote on South Dakota Referred Law 21 would keep the law in place.

Washington, DC

Voters in the nation's capital are mulling a measure that would dramatically revamp party primaries in this overwhelmingly Democratic city―but only if the city council also signs off.

Initiative 83 would introduce ranked-choice voting into primaries in Washington, D.C., and also allow independents to cast ballots. Mayor Muriel Bowser, however, is among those opposing the change.

"I am totally against ranked-choice voting," she recently told reporters. "I don't think that our very good experience with elections suggests that we need to make any change."

Initiative 83 has received financial support from national groups that back ranked-choice voting, as well as from an affiliate of Dr. Bronner's Magic Soaps. Because the proposal would have a fiscal impact, though, the D.C. Council would need to provide funding for it to go into effect

The body is led by Democrat Phil Mendelson, who has also expressed his opposition to ranked-choice voting. Mendelson, though, hasn't said what he'd do should Initiative 83 prevail.

"Initiatives almost always get passed," he told the Washington Post last month. "So then Dr. Bronner will be in my ear: The voters voted for this—you need to fund it."

Some of Mendelson's colleagues on the 13-member Council, though, want the "yes" side to prevail. Three who oppose Initiative 83 also informed the Washington City Paper that they'd respect whatever voters decide.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: OnMessage Inc. (R): Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 48 (50-47 Trump)

• AZ-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45 (48-47 Trump)

• AZ-Sen: Mitchell Research & Communications (R): Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 46 (50-48 Trump)

• AZ-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45 (48-44 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 48-41 Gallego)

• AZ-Sen: Morning Consult: Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 42 (48-48 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 52-40 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Morning Consult: Rick Scott (R-inc): 48, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 45 (51-46 Trump) (Sept.: 46-42 Scott)

• MD-Sen: Chism Strategies (D): Angela Alsobrooks (D): 48, Larry Hogan (R): 40 (56-33 Harris)

• MD-Sen: Morning Consult: Alsobrooks (D): 49, Hogan (R): 42 (64-31 Harris) (mid-Oct.: 51-38 Alsobrooks)

• ME-Sen: SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote: Angus King (I-inc): 54, Demi Kouzounas (R): 28, David Costello (D): 8, Jason Cherry (I): 3 (51-43 Harris)

• ME-Sen: University of New Hampshire: King (D-inc): 50, Kouzounas (R): 35, Costello (D): 7 (52-41 Harris) (Aug.: 43-33 King)

• MI-Sen: Marist College: Elissa Slotkin (D): 52, Mike Rogers (R): 46 (51-48 Harris) (Sept.: 52-45 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press: Slotkin (D): 47, Rogers (R): 42 (48-45 Harris) (Aug.: 46-42 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: OnMessage (R): Slotkin (D): 47, Rogers (R): 46 (48-48 presidential tie)

• MI-Sen: Siena: Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 46 (45-45 presidential tie) (Sept.: 47-42 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Morning Consult: Slotkin (D): 49, Rogers (R): 41 (49-48 Harris) (mid-Oct.: 48-41 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: The Tarrance Group (R) for Mike Rogers: Rogers (R): 50, Slotkin (D): 48 (Sept.: 49-47 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Mitchell (R) for MIRS and Michigan News Source: Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 46 (49-48 Harris) (late Oct.: 49-47 Rogers)

• MN-Sen: Chism (D): Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 52, Royce White (R): 35 (48-43 Harris)

• NE-Sen-A: Torchlight Strategies (R) for Deb Fischer: Deb Fischer (R-inc): 51, Dan Osborn (I): 44 (mid-Oct.: 51-44 Fischer)

• NV-Sen: Emerson College for RealClearWorld: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 49, Sam Brown (R): 45 (48-47 Harris) (early Oct.: 50-42 Rosen)

• NV-Sen: Susquehanna Polling & Research (R): Brown (R): 47, Rosen (D-inc): 46 (50-44 Trump)

• NV-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights: Rosen (D-inc): 48, Brown (R): 46 (49-48 Harris) (Sept.: 50-36 Rosen)

• NV-Sen: DFP (D): Rosen (D-inc): 49, Brown (R): 42 (49-47 Harris)

• NV-Sen: Siena: Rosen (D-inc): 52, Brown (R): 43 (48-46 Harris) (Aug.: 49-40 Rosen)

• OH-Sen: Miami University: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48, Bernie Moreno (R): 46 (49-46 Trump)

• OH-Sen: Morning Consult: Moreno (R): 47, Brown (D-inc): 46 (53-44 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 47-46 Moreno)

If you’ve appreciated our poll pile this cycle—which is truly a massive endeavor, as you can see!—we hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription if you haven’t already.

• PA-Sen: Marist: Bob Casey (D-inc): 50, Dave McCormick (R): 48 (50-48 Harris) (Sept.: 52-47 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Suffolk University for USA Today: Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 46 (49-49 presidential tie) (Sept.: 47-43 Casey)

• PA-Sen: OnMessage (R): Casey (D-inc): 46, McCormick (R): 46 (49-47 Trump) (Sept.: 45-44 Casey)

• PA-Sen: DFP: Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 45 (50-48 Harris)

• PA-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post: Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 46 (48-47 Harris) (Sept.: 47-46 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Siena for the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer: Casey (D-inc): 50, McCormick (R): 45 (47-47 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 48-44 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Muhlenberg College for Morning Call: Casey (D-inc): 49, McCormick (R): 46 (49-47 Harris) (Sept.: 48-43 Casey)

• PA-Sen: Morning Consult: Casey (D-inc): 46, McCormick (R): 43 (48-48 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 49-41 Casey)

• TX-Sen: Morning Consult: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 47, Colin Allred (D): 44 (52-45 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 46-45 Cruz)

• VA-Sen: Roanoke College: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 51, Hung Cao (R): 40 (51-41 Harris) (Aug.: 49-38 Kaine)

• VA-Sen: Cygnal (R): Kaine (D-inc): 52, Cao (R): 42 (50-43 Harris)

• VA-Sen: Chism (D): Kaine (D-inc): 46, Cao (R): 45 (45-45 presidential tie)

• WI-Sen: Marist: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 48 (50-48 Harris) (Sept.: 51-48 Baldwin)

• WI-Sen: OnMessage (R): Baldwin (D-inc): 48, Hovde (R): 47 (48-47 Trump) (late Oct.: 49-48 Hovde)

• WI-Sen: Siena: Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Hovde (R): 46 (48-45 Harris) (Sept.: 50-43 Baldwin)

• WI-Sen: Morning Consult: Baldwin (D-inc): 49, Hovde (R): 47 (48-48 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 49-44 Baldwin)

• NC-Gov: Siena: Josh Stein (D): 56, Mark Robinson (R): 38 (48-45 Harris) (Sept.: 47-37 Stein)

• NC-Gov: Morning Consult: Stein (D): 52, Robinson (R): 36 (49-47 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 54-32 Stein)

• NH-Gov: UNH: Kelly Ayotte (R): 48, Joyce Craig (D): 44 (51-46 Harris) (Sept.: 47-46 Craig)

• CA-49: SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune: Mike Levin (D-inc): 51, Matt Gunderson (R): 38 (52-44 Harris) (early Oct.: 53-41 Levin)

• ME-02: SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote: Jared Golden (D-inc): 53, Austin Theriault (R): 41 (49-44 Trump)

• ME-02: UNH: Golden (D-inc): 45, Theriault (R): 44 (48-44 Trump)

• NH-01: UNH: Chris Pappas (D-inc): 51, Russell Prescott (R): 39 (Sept.: 52-35 Pappas)

• NH-02: UNH: Maggie Goodlander (D): 53, Lily Tang Williams (R): 39 (Sept.: 49-38 Goodlander)

• AZ Ballot: DFP: Abortion amendment: Yes: 58, No: 34

• AZ Ballot: Siena: Abortion amendment: Yes: 54, No: 39 (mid-Oct.: 52-33 Yes)

• CA Ballot: UC Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times: Raise minimum wage measure: Yes: 47, No: 39 (57-35 Harris) (Sept.: 46-36 Yes)

• CA Ballot: UC Berkeley: Rent control measure: No: 45, Yes: 35 (Sept.: 37-36 Yes)

• CA Ballot: UC Berkeley: Expand felony charges measure: Yes: 60, No: 25 (Sept.: 60-21 Yes)

• MA Ballot: UNH: Allow rideshare drivers to unionize measure: Yes: 55, No: 25 (60-34 Harris) (Sept.: 48-28 Yes)

• MA Ballot: UNH: Psychedelics question: Yes: 48, No: 36 (Sept.: 51-20 Yes)

• MA Ballot: UNH: Raise minimum wage for tipped workers: No: 45, Yes: 41 (Sept.: 51-33 Yes)

• ME Ballot: UNH: Change state flag: No: 52, Yes: 43

• ME Ballot: SurveyUSA: Change state flag: No: 52, Yes: 33 

• NV Ballot: NPI: Abortion amendment: Yes: 59, No: 30

• NV Ballot: DFP: Abortion amendment: Yes: 66, No: 26

• NV Ballot: Siena: Abortion amendment: Yes: 63, No: 33

• OH Ballot: Miami University: Redistricting amendment: Yes: 46, No: 45

• RI Ballot: UNH: Constitutional convention question: No: 47, Yes: 34 (54-40 Harris) (Sept.: 39-28 Yes)

• Los Angeles, CA District Attorney: UC Berkeley: Nathan Hochman: 50, George Gascon (inc): 25 (early Oct.: 51-21 Hochman)