The Downballot's guide to the top elections for state legislature in 2024

Thousands of seats are up for grabs. Here are the most important.

North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham, whose switch from Democratic to Republican gave the GOP supermajorities in the legislature last year. Cotham faces a serious challenge from her former party in November. (credit: Tricia Cotham campaign site)

More than 5,800 seats in 86 different state legislative chambers will go before voters in 44 states this year. Partisan control is on the line in a dozen bodies, while in many more, one party or the other is trying to consolidate power by winning a supermajority—while the other is desperately seeking to avoid being cast into superminority status.

With Republican dysfunction in Congress grinding federal lawmaking to a crawl, state legislatures are now home to some of the most important legislative activity in the nation. And following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, many have passed consequential bills that have had a profound impact on reproductive rights, particularly in Republican-run states that have adopted restrictive new abortion bans.

Below is The Downballot's guide to the most significant legislative battlegrounds this year, covering 24 chambers in 13 states. We've divided this guide into two sections: states where majorities are at stake, and those where supermajorities are up for grabs.

Each state's name is linked to The Downballot's district-by-district list of potentially competitive races, while each chamber's name is linked to an interactive map of all districts hosted by Dave's Redistricting App.

We also have a chart that provides an overview of the partisan breakdown for every chamber on the ballot this year. And you can find our complete list of races to watch for every state right here (each state is on a separate tab).

Unless otherwise specified, all seats in each chamber are up for election. In all cases, vacant seats are assigned to the party that last held them.

We'll be following all of these races closely on election night, when we'll be liveblogging the returns on our private Discord server. To join, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.

Majority Battles

Alaska

Senate: 17 Majority Caucus (9 D, 8 R); 3 Minority Caucus (3 R) • Seats up this year: 10 Majority (5 D, 5R)

House: 23 Majority Caucus (20 R, 2 D, 1 I); Minority Caucus (11 D, 1 R, 4 I); 1 no caucus (1 R)

Alaska is home to the most complicated—and fascinating—governing alliances at the legislative level anywhere in the country, as the brief summary above hints.

In the Senate, following the 2022 elections, every Democrat and most of the Republicans joined together to form a coalition, leaving three far-right Republicans who've often been at odds with their own party out in the cold. That coalition is very likely to remain intact next year, though hardliners are challenging several members of the Majority Caucus and could reduce its size.

The House is even more complex. Until last year, it had been run by a Democratic-led coalition since 2017, in part due to GOP infighting that prevented the party from uniting around a speaker. But after the most recent elections, Republicans managed to convince the four members of the rural Bush Caucus (two Democrats and two independents) to support their candidate, bringing about the current arrangement.

Democrats and their allies, however, are hoping to make gains in November that will once again allow them to call the shots when the legislature reconvenes. In addition, some members of the current majority might be willing to switch sides, boosting the chances of Democrats leading another alliance come January.

Since 2022, Alaska has used ranked-choice voting to elect members of its legislature, with general elections featuring up to four candidates. The new system also eliminated party primaries and replaced them with a single top-four primary, a switch that has boosted the fortunes of independents and moderate Republicans.

The districts in use since the most recent census were drawn by a GOP-dominated commission, but state courts ordered modifications to the Senate map after concluding Republicans had violated the state constitution by seeking to gerrymander the lines.

Arizona

Senate: 16 R, 14 D (Democrats need 1 to tie, 2 for majority)

House: 31 R, 29 D (Democrats need 1 to tie, 2 for majority)

Arizona's legislature, where both the Senate and House are balanced on a knife's edge, offers Democrats two of their best opportunities for flipping legislative chambers this year.

Both chambers use the same map, which was drawn by an independent commission, with each district electing one senator and two representatives. In each, Democrats would need to net one seat to earn a tie and two to win a majority.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump each carried 15 districts in 2020 as Biden was narrowly carrying the state. Three Republican representatives sit in seats that Biden carried, while two Democrats represent Trump turf. In the Senate, GOP incumbent J.D. Mesnard is defending a seat that Biden took 51-48, while there are no Democrats in Trump seats. 

Unlike in many states, ties in the Senate are not broken by the lieutenant governor because Arizona doesn't have a lieutenant governor (though it will begin electing one starting in 2026). When the Senate was last deadlocked following the 2000 elections, the parties reached a power-sharing agreement, a method used to resolve such ties in many states.

Maine

Senate: 22 D, 13 R (Republicans need 5 for majority)

House: 81 D, 68 R, 2 I (Republicans need 8 for majority)

Maine has regularly been a legislative battleground in recent years, but it's drawn much less attention this time around. Still, the state bears watching if Democrats have a difficult night. Because Maine law requires supermajorities to approve new maps, the current districts were passed in a bipartisan fashion.

Michigan

House: 56 D, 54 R (Republicans need 1 to tie, 2 for majority)

Democrats are fighting hard to hold the two-seat majority in the Michigan House they won in a shocker two years ago (the Senate is up only in midterms), with many closely divided districts in play.

Court-ordered redistricting has also made matters tougher, transforming the safely blue seat in the Detroit area held by Democratic state Rep. Mai Xiong into a swingy one that Biden would have only narrowly carried.

Republicans need to flip one seat for a tie and two to take control. Regardless of what happens in the House, though, Democrats will retain their 20-18 edge in the Senate until 2026, barring any early departures.

The key reason for Democratic success in 2022: Michigan for the first time used independently drawn maps, which replaced previous GOP gerrymanders thanks to a redistricting reform proposal voters passed in 2018.

Trump, however, took 56 districts even as he was losing the Wolverine State in 2020, while the other 54 went for Biden. (These topline numbers are the same under both the map used in 2022 and the new one, though as noted above, one seat shifted materially.) Four Democrats hold Trump seats, compared to two Republicans in Biden constituencies.

Minnesota

Senate: 34 D, 33 R • Seats up this year: 1 D (Republicans need 1 for majority)

House: 70 D, 64 R (Republicans need 3 to tie, 4 for majority)

Minnesota's Senate was another stunning flip for Democrats in the 2022 midterms, but ordinarily, they wouldn't have had to worry about their new majority for another four years.

But Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is poised to easily win a seat in Congress, resigned from the legislature in July so that the special election to replace her could be held simultaneously with the general election. The contest will determine control of the chamber, though her party is favored to hold the 45th District in the Minneapolis suburbs.

There's more tension in the House, where Republicans have several targets in their quest to take their first majority in six years. Democrats, however, are making a play at several GOP-held seats to protect―and potentially even expand―their narrow majority.

While Democrats currently control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, the Land of 10,000 Lakes is far more accustomed to divided government. For that reason, Minnesota's maps have been drawn by the courts for decades because of frequent impasses between the two parties.

New Hampshire

Senate: 14 R, 10 D (Democrats need 2 to tie, 3 for majority)

House: 202 R, 195 D, 3 I (Democrats need 5 to tie, 6 for majority) • Floterial map

New Hampshire has the fourth-smallest Senate anywhere in the nation, behind only Alaska—and by far the largest House: If the U.S. House were similarly proportioned, there would be 95,550 representatives in Congress.

Combined with the state's penchant for swinging between the parties, that makes predicting control of the House especially difficult, though Democrats are buoyed by the fact that they unexpectedly made double-digit gains in 2022 despite running on maps that had been gerrymandered by Republicans.

Those maps are also unusual in a couple of ways. Many districts elect more than one representative, with the largest electing 11—by far the most of any multi-member district in the country. In addition, many districts are known as "floterial" districts because they "float" on top of normal districts to balance out population differences.

In the Senate, Democrats would need to flip two seats for a tie and three to take control. They're again hampered by GOP gerrymanders, though they're mostly on offense, with two potential target districts that were won by Biden and three more that went narrowly for Trump.

Pennsylvania

Senate: 28 R, 22 D • Seats up this year: 15 R, 10 D (Democrats need 3 to tie, 4 for majority)

House: 102 D, 101 R (Republicans need 1 for majority)

Pennsylvania was yet another state where Democrats won an astonishing victory at the legislative level in 2022 by flipping the state House, which had long been in GOP hands. Like in Michigan, the recipe was un-gerrymandered maps, though these came about because the state Supreme Court appointed an independent-minded tiebreaker to the commission responsible for drawing new districts.

Maintaining their one-seat margin in the House will be difficult for Democrats, especially since one incumbent represents a district Trump carried by nearly 30 points. But with 203 seats, the House is the second-largest state legislative chamber in the country, and both sides have a number of targets in more closely divided districts.

Winning an outright majority in the Senate, however, is probably impossible this year. Democrats are targeting three winnable GOP-held districts, but because only half the chamber is up, there's no viable option for a fourth seat.

But forcing a deadlock would set Democrats up well for 2026, and it would also give them functional control over the chamber. Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would be able to break a tie vote when it comes to organizing the Senate, allowing a Democrat to assume the role of president pro tempore, the top leadership position in the body. Davis would not, however, be able to resolve ties on legislation.

Wisconsin

Senate: 22 R, 11 D • Seats up this year: 10 R, 6 D (Democrats need 6 for majority)

Assembly: 64 R, 35 D (Democrats need 15 for majority)

It's the dawn of a new era in Wisconsin: Extreme Republican gerrymanders have finally been replaced with fair maps—proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and adopted by the GOP-run legislature—thanks to the new liberal majority on the state Supreme Court. The development guarantees Democratic gains in this perennial swing state, but the chief question is, just how far can they go?

In the Senate, Democrats can end the GOP's supermajority, but they'd need to flip six seats to win a majority of their own. However, their upside is limited this year because only half of all seats are on the ballot. They do still have the chance to pick up as many as four redrawn districts that are nominally held by Republicans, all of which Biden carried by small margins, while they're only defending a single seat. But they'll likely have to wait until 2026 to have a shot at taking control.

The Assembly, though, could conceivably change hands this year. Dozens of seats are on the table, most of which also went narrowly for Biden. They'd need to win at least one Trump seat, however, to secure a majority, since Trump would have carried 50 of the chamber's 99 districts under the revamped lines.

Supermajority Battles

Supermajorities are on the line in many more states this year, with some 30 chambers in play. In most cases, two-thirds of all seats in a given chamber are required for a supermajority, but in some states, the threshold is just three-fifths, or 60%.

Most importantly, supermajorities can be used to override a governor's vetoes, but they play many other roles as well. They are often required, for instance, when legislators wish to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot or raise taxes. They can be necessary when lawmakers wish to call themselves into a special session or designate legislation as "emergency" in nature, allowing it to take effect sooner. And they're typically needed to expel members.

Below we highlight some of the most important states where battles over supermajorities are taking place.

Kansas

Senate: 29 R, 11 D (Democrats need 3 to break supermajority)

House: 85 R, 40 D (Democrats need 2 to break supermajority)

Kansas Democrats need to flip two seats in the House or three in the Senate to break the GOP's supermajorities, which they've frequently used to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's vetoes. While they only need to whittle Republicans down in one chamber, they'd naturally prefer to do so in both, but GOP gerrymanders make their task more difficult.

Yet despite the GOP's numbers, several Kelly vetoes of high-profile bills have been sustained thanks to the support of a handful of Republican legislators who've gone against the rest of their party. But many of these more pragmatic Republicans have opted to retire, so Democrats will likely need to increase their own ranks if they're to uphold Kelly's vetoes during the final two years of her last term in office.

Montana

Senate: 34 R, 16 D • Seats up this year: 18 R, 7 D (Democrats need 1 to break supermajority)

House: 68 R, 32 D (Democrats need 2 to break supermajority)

States normally start using new maps as soon as possible after each census, but due to a strange (and probably unconstitutional) quirk in Montana law, this is the first election the state will host using redrawn district lines. Despite the delay, though, the news is especially welcome for Democrats, after the tiebreaking member on the state's bipartisan redistricting commission chose their plans over those of Republicans.

Democrats won't win majorities in deep-red Montana, but they're very likely to erase the GOP's supermajorities, now that Republicans are defending multiple districts Biden would have carried. On paper, Democrats need just one seat in the Senate, while in the House they need two.

But there's an overall topline that's more important than the results in either chamber. Montana has another unique rule that requires constitutional amendments to win a two-thirds supermajority of all legislators, essentially treating the House and Senate as a single body. To deprive the GOP of this power, therefore, Democrats need to collectively win at least 51 seats in the legislature.

Nebraska

Senate: 33 R, 15 D, 1 I • Seats up this year: 16 R, 9 D (Democrats need 1 to break supermajority)

Nebraska is the lone state with a unicameral (and officially nonpartisan) legislature, and it's also unusual in that its Senate allows for a robust filibuster, with a two-thirds vote required to cut off debate. Last year, for instance, Democrats used the procedure to force the GOP to abandon a six-week abortion ban, though Republicans eventually settled for a 12-week ban.

The GOP formally achieved a supermajority earlier this year when a conservative Democrat, Mike McConnell, switched parties. (McConnell had helped them break Democrats' abortion filibuster the year before.) Democrats would very much like to knock Republicans back below the two-thirds threshold this year, though all of their targets are in Trump districts, and the map was gerrymandered by the GOP.

Nevada

Senate: 13 D, 8 R • Seats up this year: 6 D, 4 R (Democrats need 1 for supermajority)

Assembly: 28 D, 14 R (Republicans need 1 to break supermajority)

Nevada is the rare state where Democrats are hoping to gain a supermajority, which would allow them to override vetoes from Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.

Democrats already hold exactly two-thirds of all seats in the 42-member Assembly thanks to carefully gerrymandered maps. That means, however, that their gains are virtually maxed out, so they're mostly playing defense in several swingy seats.

In the Senate, meanwhile, they need one more seat for a supermajority, and there's an open GOP district in the Reno area that went for Biden by 15 points that has Democrats' name on it. But they also have to safeguard two potentially vulnerable seats outside of Las Vegas if they're to hit the two-thirds mark.

North Carolina

Senate: 30 R, 20 D (Democrats need 1 to break supermajority)

House: 72 R, 48 D (Democrats need 1 to break supermajority)

North Carolina Democrats are desperate to claw their way out of the superminority so that they can once again sustain gubernatorial vetoes—a critical goal with Democrat Josh Stein favored to win the governorship.

They're also out for revenge after state Rep. Tricia Cotham switched parties to join the GOP last year, handing Republicans the three-fifths supermajorities they needed to run roughshod over Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes. That's precisely what they proceeded to do, passing, among other things, a 12-week abortion ban.

Democrats face brutal gerrymanders passed by Republicans last year, but they only need a single seat—one in either chamber—to send the GOP below the 60% mark. Of course, they'd prefer more, since they wouldn't have to rely on perfect attendance and perfect loyalty with a bigger buffer.

The House offers more opportunities, and there's one particularly juicy target: Cotham's seat. While Republicans sought to make her safely blue district more winnable for her, the best they could do was turn it into a swing seat. How angry are local Democrats? Last year, voters ousted Cotham's mother from local office in the same area as her daughter's district, rewarding her with fourth place in a top-three primary.

Other States

Democrats in New York are seeking to defend their two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers, while in Colorado, Connecticut, and Delaware, they already have a supermajority in one chamber and could win one in the other with small gains. New Mexico Democrats are also just below that threshold in both chambers.

It's a little more complicated in Oregon, where Democrats need just one seat in each chamber for a three-fifths supermajority that would allow them to raise taxes without Republican votes. But the two-thirds supermajority needed to overcome frequent GOP walkouts, which have brought legislative business to a halt by denying a quorum, looks out of reach.

Democrats would also like to bust Republican supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature in Florida and Missouri. In Iowa and South Carolina, meanwhile, the GOP is at two-thirds in one chamber and just below that mark in the other, so Democrats are hoping to at least maintain the status quo if not roll back Republican supermajorities altogether.