One of my last predictions is that neither of the following three things will happen:
1) 2020 redux, +/- PV swing. Never happened before, some states will swing more than others, at least a few will even swing against the national trend. Boo to the pollsters showing this.
2) All seven designated swing states are near ties. I feel like this…
One of my last predictions is that neither of the following three things will happen:
1) 2020 redux, +/- PV swing. Never happened before, some states will swing more than others, at least a few will even swing against the national trend. Boo to the pollsters showing this.
2) All seven designated swing states are near ties. I feel like this is pollster groupthink, there's no reason to think all seven have converged like this. Also boo to the pollsters showing this.
3) 2022 redux, FL and NY zoom right, CO, MN, MI zoom left, etc. While midterms can have hints for the following pres year (most notably IA, ME-02, IL-12, NY-01 in 2014, and then Indiana in 2006), there has never been total alignment. We got blown out in OH in 2010, then Obama held it in 2012, etc. There's a lot of specific reasons certain states were really good or bad in the midterms and I don't think it all boils down to "those states are permanently that way now".
So what do I think will happen? I dunno! I suspect Harris does particularly well in suburbs and small cities that shot left in 2020 but the statewide swings could be mitigated (or exacerbated) by other demographics. I don't trust any of the conventional wisdoms. I strongly believe some state polling averages will be close while others miss badly, in either direction.
One of my last predictions is that neither of the following three things will happen:
1) 2020 redux, +/- PV swing. Never happened before, some states will swing more than others, at least a few will even swing against the national trend. Boo to the pollsters showing this.
2) All seven designated swing states are near ties. I feel like this is pollster groupthink, there's no reason to think all seven have converged like this. Also boo to the pollsters showing this.
3) 2022 redux, FL and NY zoom right, CO, MN, MI zoom left, etc. While midterms can have hints for the following pres year (most notably IA, ME-02, IL-12, NY-01 in 2014, and then Indiana in 2006), there has never been total alignment. We got blown out in OH in 2010, then Obama held it in 2012, etc. There's a lot of specific reasons certain states were really good or bad in the midterms and I don't think it all boils down to "those states are permanently that way now".
So what do I think will happen? I dunno! I suspect Harris does particularly well in suburbs and small cities that shot left in 2020 but the statewide swings could be mitigated (or exacerbated) by other demographics. I don't trust any of the conventional wisdoms. I strongly believe some state polling averages will be close while others miss badly, in either direction.
I will be looking very closely at Florida. I think there's a 10-15% chance Harris shocks everyone and wins it.
I am really hoping this !
I think Dobbs will play in Florida(not predicting wins here, just closer margins); and I think 1.1 million Puerto Ricans are pissed off here to boot
I am thinking 1980, but to a lesser extent, obviously.
Much lesser!