Like many of my friends here at the DownBallot, I stayed up late last night to watch the Canadian vote count. Perhaps the best election summary comes from satirist Andy Borowitz:
CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER THANKS TRUMP FOR ELECTION VICTORY
. In an emotional victory speech late Monday night, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney thanked Donald J…
Like many of my friends here at the DownBallot, I stayed up late last night to watch the Canadian vote count. Perhaps the best election summary comes from satirist Andy Borowitz:
CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER THANKS TRUMP FOR ELECTION VICTORY
. In an emotional victory speech late Monday night, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney thanked Donald J. Trump for his stunning election win.
“I don’t deserve credit for this victory,” Carney, choking back tears, told his supporters. “Donald, I couldn’t have done it without you.”
Carney received congratulatory calls from dozens of other world leaders whose political careers have been boosted by Trump, including Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“It’s like I told you, man,” Zelenskyy reportedly told the Canadian. “Trump is magic.”
As long as the Liberal Party has strong leadership, it will simply be hard for the NDP to find a relevant voice. They don't have Tommy Douglas or Jack Layton to carry them anymore.
Sure, but after two disappointing election cycles it was obviously time to move on.
And it's hard to think of a worse profile than Singh's to prop up the Trudeau government, his whole stock in trade was being the anti-nepo baby alternative to Trudeau.
And then Singh kept keeping the Liberals alive to the point the Tories rightfully or wrongly said Singh and the NDP were keeping Trudeau way past his expiration date so Singh can qualify for his parliamentary pension.
It's funny, I was going to use the phrase "past his expiration date" because Singh's brand is "fresh". Running in a third election after doing grubby deals with the insiders doesn't make you seem so "fresh" anymore.
If Singh had passed a no confidence motion while Trudeau was still the PM, sure the conservatives would win a supermajority but even his party would have benefited a lot i.e in December before the pension attacks started.
Yes, he and his party could have brought down the government last year which would have resulted in a Conservative majority but a much better result for the NDP. To their credit, they didn’t
Yes. He was a mistake from the start. As was Mulcair. If they want to bounce back, they are going to need to find a leader who is left-populist to more distinguish themselves from the Liberals.
Also the Liberal Party is going to have to completely collapse a la 2011. As long as Canada keeps FPTP, there will really only be two parties that dominate.
(I’m quoting this fascinating update in full. Link to election blog at bottom.)
The CBC Decision Desk is watching 11 ridings in particular before making a call on a majority or minority government. They are all ridings where the Liberals are currently in second place. Last night, they went from 163 projected seats to 168 as advance and special ballots were counted, in some cases making up several hundred or even 1,000-vote deficits — so these could flip. The Liberals need four of the following 11 ridings to do that.
– Terrebonne in Quebec: It is the closest race in the country right now, where the Bloc is leading the Liberals by 28 votes. Two polls are left to report, which could be 880 votes.
– Nunavut: There is a 54-vote margin with at least 647 votes to come.
– Vancouver Kingsway: The NDP's Don Davies is leading the Liberals by 308 votes.
– Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore (Ontario): The Liberals are trailing by 359 votes and we are expecting at least 3,500 special ballots there.
– Miramichi Grand Lake (New Brunswick): There is a 394-vote margin here. One of the two special ballot polls has reported, where at least 2,700 special ballots were cast.
– Milton East Halton Hills South (Ontario): Former Ontario Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Parm Gill is leading the Liberal candidate by 556 votes. Again, one of the two special ballot polls reported and at least 2,800 special ballots were cast.
– Shefford (Quebec): Here, there is a 651-vote margin for the Bloc. The Liberals were in the lead for part of last night. Again, one of the two special ballot polls reported and there were at least 1,800 special ballots cast.
– Cloverdale Langley City (B.C.): This is a large margin, at 923 votes. But neither of the special polls have reported and there are at least 5,500 votes in those polls.
– Kitchener South Hespeler (Ontario): Conservatives are leading the Liberals by a little more than 1,100 votes with one of the special polls having reported — and 3,000 special ballots were cast.
– Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (B.C.): Right now the Liberals are trailing by 1,400 votes, but they were trailing by 2,500 votes last night and there are still eight polls yet to report.
– Hamilton East Stoney Creek (Ontario): The incumbent Liberal is trailing right now by 1,500 votes. At one point last night, the Liberals were trailing by 3,000 votes. They've now cut that in half, and there are still six polls left to report, including a minimum of 4,800 special ballots.
The Liberals also need to hold the two races where they have a close lead — Kelowna and Terra Nova The Peninsulas, in Newfoundland and Labrador.
I could see IA being one of the Senate seats that could be swingy if the hypothetical you are describing would happen.
MT on the other hand would be more challenging in today’s environment vs back in 2006. Senator Steve Daines is running for his third term, not his first or 2nd. If this were an open race and Daines wasn’t in the Senate, I’d say maybe.
However, in 2020 Steve Bullock didn’t cut down the margin enough in his Senate election to make me believe unseating an incumbent GOP Senator in MT would be promising.
Bullock running in a blue wave, open seat, non-presidential year could've been interesting.. more swing voters in MT than, say, TN. But tis not to be..
The vote % is closer than I'd have expected. Currently at 43.6% vs 41.4%. Granted I wasn't following this super closely, but the surface level details I got made it seem like Liberals were a bit further ahead on the popular vote.
Like many of my friends here at the DownBallot, I stayed up late last night to watch the Canadian vote count. Perhaps the best election summary comes from satirist Andy Borowitz:
CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER THANKS TRUMP FOR ELECTION VICTORY
. In an emotional victory speech late Monday night, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney thanked Donald J. Trump for his stunning election win.
“I don’t deserve credit for this victory,” Carney, choking back tears, told his supporters. “Donald, I couldn’t have done it without you.”
Carney received congratulatory calls from dozens of other world leaders whose political careers have been boosted by Trump, including Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“It’s like I told you, man,” Zelenskyy reportedly told the Canadian. “Trump is magic.”
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/canadian-prime-minister-thanks-trump
Stunning that four party leaders failed to win their own riding (district):
– Pierre Poilievre, Conservative. Lost by 4.5% margin.
– Jagmeet Singh, NDP. Lost by 24% margin.
– Jonathan Pedneault, Green Party. Lost by 45.3% margin.
– Maxime Bernier, People’s Party. Lost by 54% margin!
Feels like the NDP make a huge mistake sticking with Singh after the last election.
As long as the Liberal Party has strong leadership, it will simply be hard for the NDP to find a relevant voice. They don't have Tommy Douglas or Jack Layton to carry them anymore.
Sure, but after two disappointing election cycles it was obviously time to move on.
And it's hard to think of a worse profile than Singh's to prop up the Trudeau government, his whole stock in trade was being the anti-nepo baby alternative to Trudeau.
And then Singh kept keeping the Liberals alive to the point the Tories rightfully or wrongly said Singh and the NDP were keeping Trudeau way past his expiration date so Singh can qualify for his parliamentary pension.
It's funny, I was going to use the phrase "past his expiration date" because Singh's brand is "fresh". Running in a third election after doing grubby deals with the insiders doesn't make you seem so "fresh" anymore.
If Singh had passed a no confidence motion while Trudeau was still the PM, sure the conservatives would win a supermajority but even his party would have benefited a lot i.e in December before the pension attacks started.
Yes, he and his party could have brought down the government last year which would have resulted in a Conservative majority but a much better result for the NDP. To their credit, they didn’t
Yes. He was a mistake from the start. As was Mulcair. If they want to bounce back, they are going to need to find a leader who is left-populist to more distinguish themselves from the Liberals.
Also the Liberal Party is going to have to completely collapse a la 2011. As long as Canada keeps FPTP, there will really only be two parties that dominate.
How would that be different from how Mulcair and Singh were?
Mulcair was a former Liberal who praised Margaret Thatcher. Singh never struck that tone and appeared more interested in social issues and nice suits.
MAJORITY OR MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT?
(I’m quoting this fascinating update in full. Link to election blog at bottom.)
The CBC Decision Desk is watching 11 ridings in particular before making a call on a majority or minority government. They are all ridings where the Liberals are currently in second place. Last night, they went from 163 projected seats to 168 as advance and special ballots were counted, in some cases making up several hundred or even 1,000-vote deficits — so these could flip. The Liberals need four of the following 11 ridings to do that.
– Terrebonne in Quebec: It is the closest race in the country right now, where the Bloc is leading the Liberals by 28 votes. Two polls are left to report, which could be 880 votes.
– Nunavut: There is a 54-vote margin with at least 647 votes to come.
– Vancouver Kingsway: The NDP's Don Davies is leading the Liberals by 308 votes.
– Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore (Ontario): The Liberals are trailing by 359 votes and we are expecting at least 3,500 special ballots there.
– Miramichi Grand Lake (New Brunswick): There is a 394-vote margin here. One of the two special ballot polls has reported, where at least 2,700 special ballots were cast.
– Milton East Halton Hills South (Ontario): Former Ontario Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Parm Gill is leading the Liberal candidate by 556 votes. Again, one of the two special ballot polls reported and at least 2,800 special ballots were cast.
– Shefford (Quebec): Here, there is a 651-vote margin for the Bloc. The Liberals were in the lead for part of last night. Again, one of the two special ballot polls reported and there were at least 1,800 special ballots cast.
– Cloverdale Langley City (B.C.): This is a large margin, at 923 votes. But neither of the special polls have reported and there are at least 5,500 votes in those polls.
– Kitchener South Hespeler (Ontario): Conservatives are leading the Liberals by a little more than 1,100 votes with one of the special polls having reported — and 3,000 special ballots were cast.
– Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (B.C.): Right now the Liberals are trailing by 1,400 votes, but they were trailing by 2,500 votes last night and there are still eight polls yet to report.
– Hamilton East Stoney Creek (Ontario): The incumbent Liberal is trailing right now by 1,500 votes. At one point last night, the Liberals were trailing by 3,000 votes. They've now cut that in half, and there are still six polls left to report, including a minimum of 4,800 special ballots.
The Liberals also need to hold the two races where they have a close lead — Kelowna and Terra Nova The Peninsulas, in Newfoundland and Labrador.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/canada-election-vote-counting-resumes-with-some-key-races-still-too-close-to-call-9.6738893
I hope Don Davies hangs on. He’s a good progressive. Unfortunately, long-time BC NDP Peter Julian, who’s even better, lost his seat.
I saw that - unfortunate, Julian could have been the ideal man for a post-Singh rebuild
Yes.
Could he still, from outside of the government?
He could. But they usually try to find a winnable seat to win in a by election. NDP only have 7, 3 in BC. Not sure any of them would want to resign.
Davies hung out to win. Liberals and NDP combined have a majority again. 176 seats.
“Trump is magic”
Outside of the satire, it would be funny if Democrats end up unseating Republicans in the House and Senate and were quoted saying this. Hahaha
I do remember Dems winning back the Senate in 2006 when they were originally predicted not to flip it.
Would be nice if history repeats itself on November 3, 2026.
Polarization way deeper than in 2006. We'll need the equivalent of a triple double grand slam hat trick to win 4 Senate seats.
Yeah. Casey losing was the 2nd worst result in 2024 and made it so we would need that triple double grand slam hat trick.
I could see IA being one of the Senate seats that could be swingy if the hypothetical you are describing would happen.
MT on the other hand would be more challenging in today’s environment vs back in 2006. Senator Steve Daines is running for his third term, not his first or 2nd. If this were an open race and Daines wasn’t in the Senate, I’d say maybe.
However, in 2020 Steve Bullock didn’t cut down the margin enough in his Senate election to make me believe unseating an incumbent GOP Senator in MT would be promising.
Bullock running in a blue wave, open seat, non-presidential year could've been interesting.. more swing voters in MT than, say, TN. But tis not to be..
Last open seat race in MT was back in 2014 when Max Baucus left the Senate to serve as Ambassador to China.
Obama should have never nominated Baucus if it meant to save the Senate seat.
The vote % is closer than I'd have expected. Currently at 43.6% vs 41.4%. Granted I wasn't following this super closely, but the surface level details I got made it seem like Liberals were a bit further ahead on the popular vote.
2 points is on the low end of the final polls which ranged from 2-5.