It's increasingly hard for me to see Susan Collins surviving reelection - assuming she even decides to run. She's been in office for over 20 years now since Clinton's administration and Maine as a whole remains as blue as it ever has been. I'd say it may be close to 50/50 odds that she chooses to retire rather than face a humiliating defeat to end her career. Not only will 2026 almost certainly be a blue tsunami midterm, there's the amplified effect of having Trump in the White House further tainting the GOP brand and his cadre of loonies not including Musk. Hopefully other senate Republicans will become more vulnerable too to potentially knock off.
I'd be careful about predicting a "blue tsunami" for fear of disappointment relative to overstated expectations--remember how 2022 was supposed to be a "red tsunami?" I do agree with Lakshya Jain and others that 2026 does look likely to be bluer than any year since at least 2018, but we shouldn't get overconfident or ahead of ourselves.
Regarding Collins, the same was said by many about her likely losing in 2020, but she survived and it wasn't very close. Of course, that doesn't necessarily presage 2026, as her luck could run out especially if she thinks that "suck up to Trump while expressing concern at the right times" will prove a winning formula. And the Maine GOP's luck will almost certainly run out at least for Senate races if she steps aside.
You are right it isn't hard to see Collins surviving another election. But given what we already know, she seems to be by far the most vulnerable GOP senator. Presidential elections are harder to gauge and predict but midterms tend to swing wildly in 1 direction, especially now with hyperpolarization. 2008 is actually the most impressive year I think for Collins since she managed to win with double digits during a time where Maine was even more solidly Democratic with both districts going towards a highly popular Obama and the GOP brand being worn out by W Bush. I guess we will see if her brand holds up now in 2026 with Trump as president who is arguably even more unpopular. It may be premature, but it's very hard to see how 2026 doesn't at least lean towards Democrats, as they are the minority party federally and that's combined with Trump's unpopularity corruption and incompetence, which will only worsen by the day.
2026 should definitely at least lean to Dems, but as you mention Susan Collins has beaten the odds before. Time will tell if she becomes the GOP's Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown (potential comebacks from them notwithstanding.)
One more fun fact about Susan Collins: she was an question to a Jeopardy answer tonight. "Hailing from Caribou, Maine, she is the longest serving woman in the Senate".'
In the same "Senators" category, Cory Booker, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, and Tammy Baldwin were all questions or answers.
And Susan Collins is a yes for Tulsi Gabbard. Obviously the WH is putting major pressure on these two who are up for election this year.
It's increasingly hard for me to see Susan Collins surviving reelection - assuming she even decides to run. She's been in office for over 20 years now since Clinton's administration and Maine as a whole remains as blue as it ever has been. I'd say it may be close to 50/50 odds that she chooses to retire rather than face a humiliating defeat to end her career. Not only will 2026 almost certainly be a blue tsunami midterm, there's the amplified effect of having Trump in the White House further tainting the GOP brand and his cadre of loonies not including Musk. Hopefully other senate Republicans will become more vulnerable too to potentially knock off.
I'd be careful about predicting a "blue tsunami" for fear of disappointment relative to overstated expectations--remember how 2022 was supposed to be a "red tsunami?" I do agree with Lakshya Jain and others that 2026 does look likely to be bluer than any year since at least 2018, but we shouldn't get overconfident or ahead of ourselves.
Regarding Collins, the same was said by many about her likely losing in 2020, but she survived and it wasn't very close. Of course, that doesn't necessarily presage 2026, as her luck could run out especially if she thinks that "suck up to Trump while expressing concern at the right times" will prove a winning formula. And the Maine GOP's luck will almost certainly run out at least for Senate races if she steps aside.
It's not at all hard for me to see her winning another election.
You are right it isn't hard to see Collins surviving another election. But given what we already know, she seems to be by far the most vulnerable GOP senator. Presidential elections are harder to gauge and predict but midterms tend to swing wildly in 1 direction, especially now with hyperpolarization. 2008 is actually the most impressive year I think for Collins since she managed to win with double digits during a time where Maine was even more solidly Democratic with both districts going towards a highly popular Obama and the GOP brand being worn out by W Bush. I guess we will see if her brand holds up now in 2026 with Trump as president who is arguably even more unpopular. It may be premature, but it's very hard to see how 2026 doesn't at least lean towards Democrats, as they are the minority party federally and that's combined with Trump's unpopularity corruption and incompetence, which will only worsen by the day.
2026 should definitely at least lean to Dems, but as you mention Susan Collins has beaten the odds before. Time will tell if she becomes the GOP's Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown (potential comebacks from them notwithstanding.)
It's got nothing to do with Collins; from this day forward, it's 100% about Trump imo
Convince Maine voters of that.
I think Trump will convince them
Maybe, but the same was said in 2020. Collins will probably stand or fall on her own record and support, or lack thereof, for him.
I think 2026 is not comparable to 2020
We've heard the same thing every 6 years. I'll believe she'll lose only if we see it.
How much Collins wins re-election by is another question assuming she does in fact get re-elected to the Senate.
One more fun fact about Susan Collins: she was an question to a Jeopardy answer tonight. "Hailing from Caribou, Maine, she is the longest serving woman in the Senate".'
In the same "Senators" category, Cory Booker, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, and Tammy Baldwin were all questions or answers.