Morning Digest: Ayanna Pressley isn't ruling out a Senate run in Massachusetts

A more centrist colleague is also looking at opposing Ed Markey for renomination

Democratic Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts (credit: Ayanna Pressley Facebook)

Leading Off

MA-Sen

Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley is once again not ruling out challenging Sen. Ed Markey in next September’s Democratic primary. This development comes as fellow Rep. Seth Moulton is reportedly considering waging his own intraparty campaign against the 79-year-old incumbent.

Politico’s Kelly Garrity contacted Pressley’s team this week to ask if she’s thinking of running for the Senate in this reliably blue state, and they did not dismiss the idea when given the opportunity.

"The congresswoman remains focused on serving her district and effectively fighting back against the White House’s attacks on the LGBTQ+ community, Black and brown folks, and our immigrant neighbors," responded her spokesperson.

Pressley, who is one of the most prominent progressives in Congress, didn’t rule out running back in March, but chatter about her plans largely subsided over the ensuing months. The congresswoman’s light fundraising during the second quarter of the year—she raised only $130,000 and had a similar amount in the bank at the end of June—also indicated she wasn’t planning to run statewide anytime soon.

The New York Times, though, highlights that Pressley has yet to endorse Markey, who is a fellow ally of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

The question about what Pressley would do became more pressing on Tuesday when the Boston Globe reported that Moulton, who has often found himself at odds with progressives, is "seriously considering" running for the Senate. Moulton may make his decision quickly, as the Times separately wrote that his "potential campaign kickoff is expected in early October."

While Moulton—who at 46 is over three decades Markey’s junior—appears willing to run no matter what the senator does, it’s possible that Pressley, 51, is hoping the incumbent will retire. Markey, though, announced last year that he’ll seek reelection, and he’s repeatedly reaffirmed that he’s running.

If Markey, Moulton, and Pressley all seek this Senate seat, Massachusetts Democrats could be in for an unpredictable primary.

While the two House members could split the anti-incumbent vote and make it easier for Markey to win renomination with just a plurality, Moulton could be the one who benefits from a three-way race. Garrity writes that some political watchers believe that "Pressley and Markey would split the progressive vote, leaving a moderate lane open for Moulton."

Pressley, conversely, could stand out from her two would-be rivals as the only woman of color competing against two white men.

Markey, though, is once again making the case that the Bay State should keep him in office after more than half a century in politics. The incumbent, who was first elected to represent his hometown of Malden in the legislature back in 1972, joined the U.S. House in 1976 and won a promotion to the Senate in a 2013 special election.

But while he’s now the second-longest serving member of Congress—Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley arrived two years before him—Markey has cultivated an image as an ardent liberal who challenges the status quo.

"​​He was an original co-sponsor of Medicare For All. He co-authored the Green New Deal with me last year," Ocasio-Cortez declared in a Markey ad during his difficult 2020 primary against then-Rep. Joe Kennedy III. "When it comes to progressive leadership, it’s not your age that counts. It’s the age of your ideas."

Markey, who fended off Kennedy before easily winning his general election, echoed AOC last year as he announced his reelection campaign. The senator again dismissed concerns about his age this month by telling the Globe he was "the most energized I’ve ever been."

"Donald Trump," Markey added, "is bringing out the Malden in me every single day."

Redistricting Roundup

MD Redistricting

State Senate President Bill Ferguson sounds more open to holding a special session to redraw Maryland’s congressional map than he did last week, though he still expressed his reluctance about the idea.

"I’m hopeful that this trend that we’ve seen just in Texas and California can be stemmed, but we’ll see," the chamber’s top Democrat told reporters this week. "We’re talking through it and looking through the options to keep it as a possibility in the case that we have to deploy it."

But Ferguson, whose new comments came well after Missouri’s GOP leaders passed a new gerrymander and as Donald Trump continues to pressure their counterparts in other states to follow suit, still isn’t ready to retaliate. He repeated his earlier belief that redistricting in Maryland "should be the absolute last option."

The Downballot Podcast

How to poll diverse communities

Polling is more difficult than ever, particularly in a city as complicated and diverse as New York. Adam Carlson, founding partner at Zenith Research, joins us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to discuss how he conducted a detailed poll of the New York City mayor’s race and how he views the state of that race now. We also get his take on this year’s governor elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the contest to pass California’s redistricting ballot measure, plus a peek at 2026.

Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss the current moves to gerrymander Kansas and how that might launch a serious Democratic challenger into the Senate race there. They also discuss the Wisconsin governor’s race, where a hardline conservative Republican has jumped in, and the Washington, D.C. delegate contest, where Eleanor Holmes Norton has her first serious challenger in years.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

How to poll diverse communities

Senate

KY-Sen, KY-04

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie seems determined to keep people guessing whether he’ll make a late entry into Kentucky’s Senate race until the moment candidate filing closes on Jan. 9.

"I’m going to keep all my degrees of freedom open until January," Massie told Semafor’s Burgess Everett on Wednesday. "But I’m signing up to run in the House race."

Massie, who repeatedly pissed off Donald Trump long before he sponsored a petition to require a vote on the release of files related to the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, will face an expensive renomination battle if he sticks with his plan to stay in the 4th District. But while Trump’s allies have already spent close to $2 million on ads against Massie, they have yet to land a strong candidate to oppose him in the May 19 primary.

TX-Sen

Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s allies have released a poll showing Rep. Wesley Hunt performing poorly in the March 3 Republican primary as part of their ongoing pressure campaign to dissuade the congressman from running.

The survey from Ragnar Research for One Nation shows Cornyn edging out Attorney General Ken Paxton 32-31, with Hunt taking 17%. This poll, which was first shared by NOTUS, also finds Cornyn and Paxton deadlocked 39-39 in a two-way race.

Hunt’s backers last week publicized their own numbers showing Paxton taking 38% as Cornyn only led Hunt 28-23 for the second spot in a potential runoff. Candidates need a majority to avert a second round of voting on May 26.

VA-Sen

State Sen. Bryce Reeves on Wednesday became the first notable Virginia Republican to announce a campaign against Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, who is favored to secure a fourth term next year.

Reeves won his current office in 2011 by unseating a Democratic incumbent by 226 votes, a tight win that flipped the legislature’s upper chamber to the GOP for most of the next eight years. (Democrats, who regained control in 2014 before losing it again a few months later, have held the state Senate since the 2019 elections.)

But while Reeves has easily defended what’s now a reliably red seat, his attempts to seek a promotion haven’t gone well. He narrowly lost an ugly primary for lieutenant governor in 2017, and he took a close third place in the 2022 nomination contest to face Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the 7th Congressional District. (Democrats won both general elections.)

Warner, who won his last race 56-44 in 2020, has been raising money for his planned campaign. While the Virginia Mercury writes that the incumbent "has not formally announced" he’s in, Warner last month urged supporters to contribute to "my Senate race next year."

Governors

OK-Gov

State Superintendent Ryan Walters said Wednesday evening he would resign next month to become the leader of a national right-wing education group. While Walters, who declared that his goal was to "destroy the teachers unions," did not mention anything about seeking office next year, his departure means he almost certainly won’t be on the ballot in Oklahoma in 2026.

Walters looked like a likely candidate just months ago to succeed termed-out Gov. Kevin Stitt, a fellow Republican and former ally whom Walters has repeatedly clashed with. The far-right superintendent, though, performed poorly in primary polls even before two members of the Board of Education said his office TV displayed footage of nude women during a meeting.

This bizarre story ended last week when law enforcement officials concluded that Walters’ TV had been tuned to Samsung’s "Movie Hub Action" channel and began playing the Jackie Chan film "The Protector."

Walters generated attention again on Tuesday when he announced that every high school in the state would have a chapter of Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA organization. The superintendent, who did not say how he would enforce such a requirement, did not give any obvious hints that he was about to resign from office.

TX-Gov

Businessman Andrew White announced Wednesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to oppose Gov. Greg Abbott, the Texas Republican who holds the office that White’s late father occupied in the 1980s.

The new candidate, who touted himself as an "Independent Democrat," presented himself as a candidate who could appeal to both progressives and moderates and end the state’s "culture wars."

White sought to challenge Abbott for reelection in 2018, but he lost the Democratic nomination 53-47 to former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez in a runoff. Abbott went on to easily defeat Valdez that fall before winning again in 2022, and he’s now seeking a fourth term.

White joins rancher Bobby Cole in the March primary, while a few other candidates are also privately considering whether to run.

White, though, argues he’s the strongest option to prevent Abbott from becoming the longest-serving governor in Texas history and break the GOP’s three-decade winning streak. The new challenger told the Dallas Morning News that he was "the best candidate that Democrats have nominated to run against Greg Abbott in the last 20 years, maybe since 1982."

That was the year that his father, Mark White, claimed the governorship by unseating Republican incumbent Bill Clements. The elder White, though, lost his 1986 rematch to Clements, and his 1990 comeback ended with a primary defeat against Ann Richards. Richards went on to win the general election before losing in 1994 to future President George W. Bush, and no Democrat has held this office since then.

Before Andrew White can get a chance to end that losing streak, though, he’ll need to convince primary voters to choose him. He argued to the Houston Chronicle that Democrats weren’t "ready" for him in 2018 because they were "playing a lot of identity politics," but that things would be different next year.

House

TN-07, GA-Sen

State Rep. Gino Bulso is airing one of the first campaign ads anywhere about the death of Charlie Kirk as he competes against 10 fellow Tennessee Republicans in next month’s special election primary.

"They took a shot at President Trump. They assassinated Charlie Kirk, and they crushed working families with inflation," Bulso tells the audience. The candidate, who stands in front of a photo of an injured Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, tells the audience he’ll "fight, fight, fight" for a conservative agenda.

The Nashville Banner subsequently asked Bulso’s team to define "they," and his campaign responded that "the radicalized left are targeting conservative leaders and celebrating political violence."

Bulso, as Politico highlights, isn’t the only Republican candidate in the South to run a commercial about the shooting. Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter, who is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, recently debuted a spot showing a mugshot of the accused killer as the narrator declares that "brave conservatives must step up and fight back."

But while Carter’s competitive primary isn’t until next spring, Bulso’s nomination contest is less than two weeks away on Oct. 7.

There is no obvious frontrunner in either the GOP or Democratic primaries for Tennessee’s 7th District, which is vacant following Republican Mark Green’s resignation in July. The general election will take place on Dec. 2.

Morning Digest: Why Tennessee Democrats think they can pull a special election upset

Secretaries of State

MI-SoS

Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini joined the Republican race for Michigan secretary of state on Wednesday. The nomination will effectively be decided in March at a party endorsement convention rather than through a traditional state-run primary.

Forlini, who is running to succeed term-limited Democratic incumbent Jocelyn Benson, told the Detroit News he believed Republicans wanted someone with experience as their next secretary of state.

Forlini’s main intraparty opponent is businesswoman Monica Yatooma, who says she got involved in politics in the aftermath of the 2020 election and has been more than willing to entertain Donald Trump’s lies about his defeat that year.