And speaking of Minnesota, this week the Trump campaign pulled out of Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia; the field narrows further, making our fundraising advantages even more formidable
Good post, but I don't blame anyone for Bachmann hanging on. She almost lost, but the reason she won was not that her opponent lacked funding! That district was just too conservative and Republican.
We're getting really good numbers from Wisconsin. It looks a lot like 2020, although it should be noted that the polling was too kind to Republicans in 2022, the polling showed Evers-Michels as a coinflip and Evers won by 3.4 and it showed Johnson with a mid-single digits lead and he wound up winning by 1.
If I were to guess right now, I think we get a repeat of 2020 with Trump overperforming in the polls but still losing narrowly. I do think its possible that the numbers that show Harris with a mid-single digit lead could end up being correct. There's this perception that Biden won because he was able to stop the bleeding in the rural areas and that's just not true. If you exclude Dane and Milwaukee counties, Trump did slightly better in the state even accounting for Biden's improvement in the WOW counties. I think Trump's numbers in the rural areas will continue to improve, but I think its possible he's crested in these areas and the numbers are flat or any improvement he sees is negligible and if that's the case, then I think a 4-6 point win is possible.
Thank you for tracking the actual spending! DCCC, NRCC, and the American Action Fund have all reserved air time in IA-01 and IA-03, but I'm curious to see whether they spend all of that money. In 2022, the DCCC spent less than GOP-aligned groups in IA-03 and spent virtually nothing in IA-01 or IA-02 (which was supposedly a targeted race that year).
With ranked choice voting, this should make no difference. All the non-Peltola voters need to do is rank her last, no matter how they rank the other three. This did not work so well for the R's in 2022, however, as many people ranked an R first, then chose Peltola second.
Actually I was thinking that the farther right candidate would actually attack the Republicans; I normally see that dynamic more; it's a 'purity' argument
Imo the key point of that poll is that Alsobrooks is unknown to over half the state and still winning; her favorable rating is huge and can consolidate the Democratic coalition relatively easily as she gets introduced to the broader statewide electorate; Sabato rates this race as Safe D and Cook rates it Solid D; I agree with the experts
Are you sure?? Perhaps I was thinking of another race that a poll came out and started a similar discussion and I checked cook/Sabato; my mistake, oops
Just to give an update about the two MA State House races I mentioned a few days ago:
In the 27th Middlesex (Somerville) district, the incumbent won easily with near 70% of the vote. (Not really surprising to me anyway.)
In the 25th Middlesex (Cambridge) district, the unofficial totals have the challenger up by just 40 votes. This margin, while small, is enough that they likely won. There's not many votes that aren't included in that number.
A junky pollster called SoCal Strategies that appears to be just some Republican kids spouting off. Even Nate Silver has banned them from his database.
I was flying back from Vancouver yesterday and couldn’t believe I missed the stories about Mark Robinson’s porn scandal and Tim Sheehy’s racist Native American remarks.
Hmm so Macron's former PM Edouard Philippe is predicting Macron will be forced to step down by next year. French politics is never boring, for better or worst.
Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late.
The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers trailed Democratic incumbents by a collective $37 million at the end of June.
Republicans were already worried about a glaring financial gap even before Kamala Harris’ rise. Now, with the election just two months away, they found themselves in an even more dire position: Democrats have seen a flood of enthusiasm in recent weeks, they’re far outspending Republicans on air and their donors are more energized than ever — with campaign finance data showing a surge in grassroots fundraising in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out.
Panic is starting to set in.
“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”
Right. WI also since Trump got elected moved to the left whereas pre-Trump and during the Tea Party wave moved more to the right due to the Koch Bros' influence.
You're forgetting that Russ Feingold had represented Wisconsin for more than 15 years from 1993-2011. He didn't get defeated for re-election by Ron Johnson because he was too liberal. He got defeated because of low turnout and underestimating the Tea Party wave back in 2010.
Besides, Johnson has barely even won his Senate elections by anymore than less than 5% points and his re-election win margins have continued to shrink. Not a good sign if he wants to hold on to his seat in the future.
As it turns out, when Barnes was the Democratic Senate Nominee he lost by just 1% points. Just because Barnes is "too far left" doesn't mean a liberal Democratic Senate Candidate can't win in WI.
If Tester is behind, it is by a lot less than our candidates in TX and FL are behind. There are reasons the professional ratings people all consider MT a toss-up (or tilt-R) while TX and FL are universally rated Likely R. This is not to say we should write off TX and FL--it's just to say our chances in MT are better.
I do not understand what I wrote that you disagree with. You said Tester had less chance to win than we have in TX and FL. I disagreed. You respond saying you disagree with me because Tester has all the funds he likely needs and donations would make more sense in TX and FL. I never said otherwise. Indeed, I have donated to Allred and DMP every quarter. Please don't try to create a disagreement by disagreeing with something I never said and would not have said.
Considering Tester defeated Rep. Matt Rosendale in the MT-SEN race back in 2018 before he ran for the MT-02 seat, while his margin of victory was just a sliver lower than in 2012, He still defeated Rosendale by 3+% points.
If Sheehy wins, I don’t think it will be anything other than perhaps 500-1000 votes more than Tester. Even then, i have yet to see evidence he’s running a credible campaign.
I think Klobuchar still runs ahead and really, who cares..the Republicans are not going to compete in Minnesota for those races
Who cares, you mean, except for us political nerds!
Yup; except us, lol
And speaking of Minnesota, this week the Trump campaign pulled out of Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia; the field narrows further, making our fundraising advantages even more formidable
Good post, but I don't blame anyone for Bachmann hanging on. She almost lost, but the reason she won was not that her opponent lacked funding! That district was just too conservative and Republican.
It's also not an abortion amendment, as covered in the digest yesterday, and particularly in the linked article by Quinn Yeargain.
Do you know if it was intended as a gotv type of amendment??; in Florida, the marijuana amendment will have a youth turnout dynamic, as an example
I have no idea. Maybe someone else will comment.
Sorry what's the source on this?
Aren’t they (almost) all.
Great airline, if they’re still around. Only one Rain Main will fly.
and, of course, CNN "battleground" polls listed above are much more favorable for the rancid orange
CNN polled the 6 swing states. Harris up in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump up in Arizona. While Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania are razor thin.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html
We're getting really good numbers from Wisconsin. It looks a lot like 2020, although it should be noted that the polling was too kind to Republicans in 2022, the polling showed Evers-Michels as a coinflip and Evers won by 3.4 and it showed Johnson with a mid-single digits lead and he wound up winning by 1.
If I were to guess right now, I think we get a repeat of 2020 with Trump overperforming in the polls but still losing narrowly. I do think its possible that the numbers that show Harris with a mid-single digit lead could end up being correct. There's this perception that Biden won because he was able to stop the bleeding in the rural areas and that's just not true. If you exclude Dane and Milwaukee counties, Trump did slightly better in the state even accounting for Biden's improvement in the WOW counties. I think Trump's numbers in the rural areas will continue to improve, but I think its possible he's crested in these areas and the numbers are flat or any improvement he sees is negligible and if that's the case, then I think a 4-6 point win is possible.
The Arizona numbers appear to be the victim of especially screwy crosstabs. I imagine it's actually a close race there, too.
Thank you for tracking the actual spending! DCCC, NRCC, and the American Action Fund have all reserved air time in IA-01 and IA-03, but I'm curious to see whether they spend all of that money. In 2022, the DCCC spent less than GOP-aligned groups in IA-03 and spent virtually nothing in IA-01 or IA-02 (which was supposedly a targeted race that year).
You bet! BTW, where did you see that American Action Network (I think that's what it's called, as opposed to Fund) had booked time in IA?
This story mentioned that AAN is targeting a bunch of races including Iowa’s first and third. Not sure whether they reserved the time already. https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/08/23/ad-buys-supporting-nunn-miller-meeks-focus-on-inflation-and-border-security/
Would ratf-ing in Alaska(funneling some amount of money to the Alaska independent party) help out peltola??.. Curious as to this group's thoughts
With ranked choice voting, this should make no difference. All the non-Peltola voters need to do is rank her last, no matter how they rank the other three. This did not work so well for the R's in 2022, however, as many people ranked an R first, then chose Peltola second.
Actually I was thinking that the farther right candidate would actually attack the Republicans; I normally see that dynamic more; it's a 'purity' argument
OR-5 poll Bynum up on Chavez-DeRemer and HArris up by 8https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1831328744528605496
Well, up 1 is basically tied but a good starting point.
MD-Gov: Gonzales research has Alsobrooks up 46-41: https://marylandreporter.com/2024/09/04/gonzales-poll-part-2-in-a-senate-race-alsobrooks-has-slight-lead-over-hogan-46-to-41/
Imo the key point of that poll is that Alsobrooks is unknown to over half the state and still winning; her favorable rating is huge and can consolidate the Democratic coalition relatively easily as she gets introduced to the broader statewide electorate; Sabato rates this race as Safe D and Cook rates it Solid D; I agree with the experts
Sabato and Cook both have it at Likely D, not Safe/Solid.
Are you sure?? Perhaps I was thinking of another race that a poll came out and started a similar discussion and I checked cook/Sabato; my mistake, oops
Likely seems right to me. It's very unlikely for her to lose, but Hogan is the country's most popular governor, so it's conceivable.
It may be closer than people want it to be, but I think Alsobrooks will win.
I don't think in the end; that it's close
Just to give an update about the two MA State House races I mentioned a few days ago:
In the 27th Middlesex (Somerville) district, the incumbent won easily with near 70% of the vote. (Not really surprising to me anyway.)
In the 25th Middlesex (Cambridge) district, the unofficial totals have the challenger up by just 40 votes. This margin, while small, is enough that they likely won. There's not many votes that aren't included in that number.
OH-Sen, Brown beating Moreno 50-45, Trump beating Harris 52-43 in Ohio https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1830714164534194407?s=46&t=NhLQrgM30BfZmjI73-3rMg
Who is the pollster? Can you give a non-X link?
A junky pollster called SoCal Strategies that appears to be just some Republican kids spouting off. Even Nate Silver has banned them from his database.
And if Brown is still winning by 5 per cent in that poll, that's a pretty good sign.
I was flying back from Vancouver yesterday and couldn’t believe I missed the stories about Mark Robinson’s porn scandal and Tim Sheehy’s racist Native American remarks.
Is either story getting traction??
'drunk indians'; used effectively should be able to get some reaction
Additional I voted stickers are available this year in Michigan. The contest was mostly for school kids.
https://www.michigan.gov/sos/resources/news/2024/09/04/secretary-benson-announces-2024-i-voted-sticker-design-contest-winners
Hmm so Macron's former PM Edouard Philippe is predicting Macron will be forced to step down by next year. French politics is never boring, for better or worst.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-top-ally-edouard-philippe-next-presidential-election/
Actually, he can't be forced to do anything
If Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points (looking more likely) what impact might this have on election?
Imo can't hurt
Apparently, House and Senate Republicans are starting to panic about fundraising woes.
One quote by the executive director of the NRSC is telling:
"We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats."
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/03/republican-campaign-money-problems-congress-00176947
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late.
The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers trailed Democratic incumbents by a collective $37 million at the end of June.
Republicans were already worried about a glaring financial gap even before Kamala Harris’ rise. Now, with the election just two months away, they found themselves in an even more dire position: Democrats have seen a flood of enthusiasm in recent weeks, they’re far outspending Republicans on air and their donors are more energized than ever — with campaign finance data showing a surge in grassroots fundraising in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out.
Panic is starting to set in.
“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”
While we're at it, donation pages for the Democratic Senate Candidates in the FL-SEN and TX-SEN races are below:
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senator of Florida https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dmp_website?refcode=main-donate-link
Colin Allred for Senator of Texas https://secure.actblue.com/donate/mw-allred-web-fr-homepage_2024?refcode=web-header&amount=25&amounts=10%2C25%2C50%2C75%2C100&ask=25
I think Tester is probably still the most likely of the three to win. Polling has previously underestimated him.
Mandela Barnes was too far left to win. A more moderate candidate would’ve had a shot there.
Right. WI also since Trump got elected moved to the left whereas pre-Trump and during the Tea Party wave moved more to the right due to the Koch Bros' influence.
You're forgetting that Russ Feingold had represented Wisconsin for more than 15 years from 1993-2011. He didn't get defeated for re-election by Ron Johnson because he was too liberal. He got defeated because of low turnout and underestimating the Tea Party wave back in 2010.
Besides, Johnson has barely even won his Senate elections by anymore than less than 5% points and his re-election win margins have continued to shrink. Not a good sign if he wants to hold on to his seat in the future.
As it turns out, when Barnes was the Democratic Senate Nominee he lost by just 1% points. Just because Barnes is "too far left" doesn't mean a liberal Democratic Senate Candidate can't win in WI.
WI isn't the same state as FL or OH.
If Tester is behind, it is by a lot less than our candidates in TX and FL are behind. There are reasons the professional ratings people all consider MT a toss-up (or tilt-R) while TX and FL are universally rated Likely R. This is not to say we should write off TX and FL--it's just to say our chances in MT are better.
I do not understand what I wrote that you disagree with. You said Tester had less chance to win than we have in TX and FL. I disagreed. You respond saying you disagree with me because Tester has all the funds he likely needs and donations would make more sense in TX and FL. I never said otherwise. Indeed, I have donated to Allred and DMP every quarter. Please don't try to create a disagreement by disagreeing with something I never said and would not have said.
Whatever Tester may be behind with, it's certainly helping that GOP Senate Candidate Tim Sheehy's candidacy is imploding with problems.
Afflicted by problems, anyway. It wouldn't be too shocking if he won, anyway, though.
I’m not convinced.
Considering Tester defeated Rep. Matt Rosendale in the MT-SEN race back in 2018 before he ran for the MT-02 seat, while his margin of victory was just a sliver lower than in 2012, He still defeated Rosendale by 3+% points.
If Sheehy wins, I don’t think it will be anything other than perhaps 500-1000 votes more than Tester. Even then, i have yet to see evidence he’s running a credible campaign.
Tester might be reaching the saturation point in terms of donations soon.
Maybe, but I'll see if he could still use online volunteers.
So hire field staff. Guarantee he’s not saturated on that.