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Oggoldy's avatar

CNN polled the 6 swing states. Harris up in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump up in Arizona. While Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania are razor thin.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html

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safik's avatar

We're getting really good numbers from Wisconsin. It looks a lot like 2020, although it should be noted that the polling was too kind to Republicans in 2022, the polling showed Evers-Michels as a coinflip and Evers won by 3.4 and it showed Johnson with a mid-single digits lead and he wound up winning by 1.

If I were to guess right now, I think we get a repeat of 2020 with Trump overperforming in the polls but still losing narrowly. I do think its possible that the numbers that show Harris with a mid-single digit lead could end up being correct. There's this perception that Biden won because he was able to stop the bleeding in the rural areas and that's just not true. If you exclude Dane and Milwaukee counties, Trump did slightly better in the state even accounting for Biden's improvement in the WOW counties. I think Trump's numbers in the rural areas will continue to improve, but I think its possible he's crested in these areas and the numbers are flat or any improvement he sees is negligible and if that's the case, then I think a 4-6 point win is possible.

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

The Arizona numbers appear to be the victim of especially screwy crosstabs. I imagine it's actually a close race there, too.

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