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William's avatar

Democrats were in a zoom call earlier and Pat Ryan NY18 was bullish on flipping 5 NY house seats from the Republicans. Here is new polling of one NY19

Riley (D) 46%

Molinaro(R-inc) 42%

Harris leads by 1% 49% to 48% in this district

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1848830224852783389

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Paleo's avatar

Obviously he means 1, 4, 17, 19, 22. I think that’s a bit of a stretch. 3 is more doable.

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Henrik's avatar

NY-1 is the one I’m most skeptical of, for sure. And 22 always just seems to be fools gold

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Paleo's avatar

I think there’s a good chance of taking 22. I’m skeptical about 17.

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Henrik's avatar

Mmm, fair. Lawler seems to have carved out a niche for himself, especially as a media darling

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Tigercourse's avatar

He's got what I think is a pretty strong ad out right now against Jones.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Could you link or describe it?

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Tigercourse's avatar

I'm having trouble finding it but it's Jones staring directly at the camera (on a zoom meeting) saying "we need to defund the police". It also links him to AOC, which doesn't much matter on this district, though doesn't help Jones. The "defund the police" bit was a brutally stupid thing for Jones to say.

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Jonathan's avatar

Jones is not good at politics(if he loses; I am hoping that he goes through an honest evaluation)

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Tigercourse's avatar

I haven't even gotten one single mailing from Jones. He should be hitting my area hard to come out and make up for losses in more conservative areas of the district.

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Kuka's avatar

Josh Marshall at TPM just posted about 3 Republicans in surprisingly close races: Perry in PA; Luna in FL; and Crane in AZ. While these races have all been discussed here, his point was that in a good Trump year it seems strange that these solidly if not overwhelmingly Republican districts are close. He couches things as very uncertain but this is an interesting point.

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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

Perry is in an increasingly blue district because it includes Harrisburg & the most blue part of York County. Luna's district is mostly rich highly-educated suburbia but still highly-educated suburbia. Crane's district is heavily-gerrymandered (goes 270 degrees around Phoenix) desert in NE AZ and includes Flagstaff & a lot of pissed off Native Americans, including his opponent.

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