Baffled as to why anyone in the Harris campaign would single out Michigan as worrisome. With the obvious caveat that early voting has limited predictive power--especially two weeks out--the numbers have been fantastic, arguably better than any other battleground state. Detroit in particularly has been a gem, with a ballot return rate hig…
Baffled as to why anyone in the Harris campaign would single out Michigan as worrisome. With the obvious caveat that early voting has limited predictive power--especially two weeks out--the numbers have been fantastic, arguably better than any other battleground state. Detroit in particularly has been a gem, with a ballot return rate higher than all other large municipalities and overall turnout in line with the state. This is a city where turnout in 2020 was 20 percentage points below the state average; hiking turnout from 50% to 55-60% would be huge. Ingham, Oakland, and Washtenaw have also been looking really solid.
If Harris can hold or expand our margins in Dem population centers and chip away at Ottawa and Livingston, she'll be in really good shape. Personally, I expect Michigan to be the best of the seven battlegrounds for us.
Fair, but there was mention that the Clark County ballots were delayed by a week. I haven’t been able to verify that but if that is the case it would go a long way towards explaining what is going on.
My impression of the Harris campaign is that they're not leaving anything to chance. If they had polls that showed a 7 swing state sweep and an 8 point national lead they would still be saying this.
Baffled as to why anyone in the Harris campaign would single out Michigan as worrisome. With the obvious caveat that early voting has limited predictive power--especially two weeks out--the numbers have been fantastic, arguably better than any other battleground state. Detroit in particularly has been a gem, with a ballot return rate higher than all other large municipalities and overall turnout in line with the state. This is a city where turnout in 2020 was 20 percentage points below the state average; hiking turnout from 50% to 55-60% would be huge. Ingham, Oakland, and Washtenaw have also been looking really solid.
If Harris can hold or expand our margins in Dem population centers and chip away at Ottawa and Livingston, she'll be in really good shape. Personally, I expect Michigan to be the best of the seven battlegrounds for us.
Same article every election cycle. Wash.Rinse.Repeat.
Yup, PA was late last week. Wonder if NV or WI will be next.
WI sounds like.
NV seems like genuine cause for concern at this point....
Fair, but there was mention that the Clark County ballots were delayed by a week. I haven’t been able to verify that but if that is the case it would go a long way towards explaining what is going on.
My impression of the Harris campaign is that they're not leaving anything to chance. If they had polls that showed a 7 swing state sweep and an 8 point national lead they would still be saying this.
Exactly. Good post