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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

Monday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.

26,378 new requests, R+3,382. Overall request advantage now down to D+518,092

129,935 ballot returns, D+22,549. Overall ballot advantage now D+348,198. Under 42k short of the (once) popular firewall, 102k below my firewall

Total Requests:

D - 1,079,726 (57.74%)

R - 561,634 (30.03%)

O - 228,705 (12.23%)

Total - 1,870,065

Total Returns:

D - 649,060 (60.11% return rate)

R - 300,862 (53.57%)

O - 101,733 (44.48%)

Total - 1,051,655

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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

Best update for GOP yet. Request advantage at lowest point since 10/2. Return rate advantage (6.54%) lowest since 10/9.

Almost a quarter of all ballots returned today are from Westmoreland (exurban Pitt) & York (exurban Philly). Big updates from Luzerne & Montgomery as well. Erie still lagging. Allegheny has reached 100k Dem returns with 52k outstanding. Philadelphia will hit that milestone Wednesday or Thursday.

I see no cause for concern. The "firewall" is still quite sizeable.

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DiesIrae's avatar

Yeah, Westmoreland and York - the former in particular - are quite Republican. Seems like they dumped a ton of ballots. I'm not surprised the return edge shrunk.

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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

They are overall but for the mail Westmoreland is D+8k & York is D+3900.

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DiesIrae's avatar

Sure, which is part of why the ballot edge expanded. But they're closer than many counties, so putting them in the system drops the return rate gap.

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