TargetEarly has Dems +5 with that same batch of data.
Now, IDK how their modeling process works, but I'd assume a pro-Dem theory would go like this:
1) GOP not as hostile to EV as in 2020/22, so they should do slightly better.
2) GOP always does well in in-person EV.
3) Generally, people will use mail less and ED more this time as people revert to pre-COVID voting habits. As a result, less blue EV and less red ED vote. But we can only see the first half now.
4) Despite this, modeled EV is still ahead of 2020 splits in MI, WI, & NE-02. And still good if behind 2020, in PA.
5) Modeled party is still ahead of the FINAL EV splits in most battlegrounds (though not all).
6) Harris should get more crossover votes and independent votes than Trump. Thilus, straight registration analysis will miss some of her strength, and even modeled party. Especially late registrants who are younger.
That is a lot of IFs. And there is scant evidence of the GOP ground game struggling as it pertains to turnout ofcregistered GOP voters so far. Though it is still very early.
There will be no way to tell for sure until ED. Again, expect some GOP improvement in raw numbers. But believe there are some Cheney GOP votes and unaffiliated young votes for Kamala in there. We are more enthusiastic & she is more popular. And the ground game IS better
TargetEarly has Dems +5 with that same batch of data.
Now, IDK how their modeling process works, but I'd assume a pro-Dem theory would go like this:
1) GOP not as hostile to EV as in 2020/22, so they should do slightly better.
2) GOP always does well in in-person EV.
3) Generally, people will use mail less and ED more this time as people revert to pre-COVID voting habits. As a result, less blue EV and less red ED vote. But we can only see the first half now.
4) Despite this, modeled EV is still ahead of 2020 splits in MI, WI, & NE-02. And still good if behind 2020, in PA.
5) Modeled party is still ahead of the FINAL EV splits in most battlegrounds (though not all).
6) Harris should get more crossover votes and independent votes than Trump. Thilus, straight registration analysis will miss some of her strength, and even modeled party. Especially late registrants who are younger.
That is a lot of IFs. And there is scant evidence of the GOP ground game struggling as it pertains to turnout ofcregistered GOP voters so far. Though it is still very early.
There will be no way to tell for sure until ED. Again, expect some GOP improvement in raw numbers. But believe there are some Cheney GOP votes and unaffiliated young votes for Kamala in there. We are more enthusiastic & she is more popular. And the ground game IS better