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ArcticStones's avatar

FLORIDA EARLY VOTE

(As of evening, October 21th) The situation is now reversed; Republicans have opened a small lead in the early voting. HOWEVER, Demcrats are still outperforming Republicans in 57 of Florida’s 67 counties.

@FloridaGOP +18,899 over @FloridaDems

- Democrat: 660,745 (39.3%)

- Republican: 679,644 (40.5%)

- Other: 338,751 (20.2%)

TOTAL: 1,679,140

https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1848515571044007956#m

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IggySD's avatar

There were some comments yesterday that the numbers were bad, are there any goal posts for FL? I think back in 2016 or so the early vote was heavily Dem and it wasn’t enough. But with changes in voter registration and voting patterns what would be considered good numbers now?

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ArcticStones's avatar

From time to time, Christopher Bouzy has some really interesting facts and analysis. That said, he does strike me as an incurable optimist and a bit of a Dem cheerleader right now. I don’t have time to look for specific Tweets right now, but here is his feed.

https://nitter.poast.org/cbouzy

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Patntx's avatar

He seems way too confident we are winning FLA.

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Henrik's avatar

He’s too optimistic in a lot of his projections, and that’s being generous. That said - he did call correctly that 2022 was not in fact going to be a red wave, though people like Rosenberg and Bonier did that with way less fantastical suggestions

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ArcticStones's avatar

I agree. Occasionally Bouzy offers data that I find interesting, but I do think his rhetoric is over the top.

With a stellar GOTV effort in Florida, fueled by the Abortion and Weed referenda, I do think it’s within the realm of possibility that Debbie Murcasel-Powell defeats Rick Scott.

My dream scenario for Election Night is North Carolina and Florida being called early for Kamala Harris. I think she’ll win NC, but I definitely wouldn’t bet my life or my life savings on Florida.

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sacman701's avatar

I can't imagine that anyone would look at the collection of data and anecdotes on Florida this year and seriously conclude that Harris is likely to win it. She'd do well to come within 5.

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Henrik's avatar

If Harris loses Florida by 5 I will be ecstatic

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Jonathan's avatar

So will Murcasel-Powell

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Tom A's avatar

Not just on Florida itself. While states dont move in unison, the movement is clsoe enough that - Harris wins FL means she's safely ahead in most of the swing states - not tied or losing in the polls.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Definitely not likely. It would be a real upset.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Florida isn't happening sadly in the presidential or senate race. We all knew republicans would zoom past us in early voting quite easily. Florida dems need to concentrate on clawing back some of the 2022 losses and getting Whitney Fox elected.

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Jonathan's avatar

Actually we need to win some state leg seats and build up a bench(I might add that the Florida Democratic party is the best this cycle I've seen in 30 years; NOT hopium)

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ArcticStones's avatar

It’s terrific that Florida Democrats have a candidate in every state legislative race. That’s such a huge step forward!

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