Morning Digest: A progressive activist got badly outspent. She won anyway.

Analilia Mejia relied on unions and "abolish ICE"—and got an assist from her rival's enemies

Analilia Mejia, Democratic nominee for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District (credit: Analilia Mejia Facebook)

Leading Off

NJ-11

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia was confirmed as the winner of last week’s Democratic primary for New Jersey’s vacant 11th District when her nearest opponent, former Rep. Tom Malinowski, conceded on Tuesday.

On election night, multiple outlets prematurely called the race for Malinowski, but later-counted votes tilted heavily in favor of Mejia, who runs an advocacy group called the Center for Popular Democracy. She was leading 29-28 when Malinowski conceded, though some votes remained to be counted, while former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way was in third with 17%.

Mejia’s victory came despite getting outspent by a wide margin throughout the race. According to AdImpact, her total ad support amounted to $215,000, while Way, the best-funded candidate, benefited from $2.6 million in spending.

But Mejia made up the gap thanks to her deep roots in progressive politics. She was a former executive director of the New Jersey Working Families Party, a labor-backed party that typically supports Democrats at the ballot box, and also served as Bernie Sanders’ national political director during his 2020 presidential campaign.

Sanders was one of many prominent progressives who endorsed Mejia, along with figures like New York Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez. She also earned the backing of several influential unions and her one-time employer, the Working Families Party.

Mejia emerged as the most outspoken voice in the race, particularly in her calls to abolish ICE, saying the agency “cannot be reformed.” She also likely benefited from some $2 million in attack ads leveled against Malinowski by the United Democracy Project, the political arm of the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC.

UDP’s advertising didn’t mention Israel at all but rather hammered the ex-congressman for backing a bipartisan border spending bill in 2019 that most House Democrats supported, saying he’d voted “to fund ICE.”

It was never clear why AIPAC had a beef with Malinowski, but it’s unlikely the group will feel more warmly toward Mejia: At a candidate forum last month, she was the lone participant to raise her hand when asked if Israel “has committed genocide in Gaza.”

Some centrists were “livid” over AIPAC’s blunder, Politico reported, with the head of Third Way calling it “one of the greatest own-goals in American political history.”

Malinowski was also scathing in his concession statement. After praising Mejia for “running a positive campaign and for inspiring so many voters” and saying he’d support her in the April 16 general election, he lit into his antagonists.

“But the outcome of this race cannot be understood without also taking into account the massive flood of dark money that AIPAC spent on dishonest ads during the last three weeks,” he said. “I wish I could say today that this effort, which was meant to intimidate Democrats across the country, failed in NJ-11. But it did not. I met several voters in the final days of the campaign who had seen the ads and asked me, sincerely: ‘Are you MAGA? Are you for ICE?’”

“My convictions — including my support for Israel as a democratic and Jewish state — don’t change because of who supports or opposes me,” he continued. “But our Democratic Party should have nothing to do with a pro-Trump-billionaire-funded organization that demands absolute fealty to positions that are outside the mainstream of the American pro-Israel community, and then smears those who don’t fall into line.”

Mejia will now head into the general election as the heavy favorite over Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the lone Republican who filed to run. According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the 11th District by a 53-45 margin in 2024, and Sherrill defeated her Republican opponent 57-42 last year, per the New Jersey Globe.

However, she’ll soon have to run in the June 2 primary for a full term, and she could face stiffer opposition then. One local Democrat, Assemblymember Rosy Bagolie, told Politico on Monday evening—before Malinowski conceded—that she was considering a challenge to Mejia.

“She is not representative of the moderate Democrats of this district, which is what I’ve been hearing and seeing online,” Bagolie said. She’ll have to decide before the special election, though, since the candidate filing deadline is March 23.

One key Malinowski supporter in the primary, though, swiftly endorsed Mejia for her races in both April and June, Sen. Andy Kim. And Malinowski himself had a warning for AIPAC should it once again try to intervene.

“If AIPAC backs a candidate — openly or surreptitiously — in the June NJ-11 Congressional primary, I will oppose that candidate and urge my supporters to do so as well,” he said.

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Why the GOP is right to freak out after Texas

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Both chambers of Virginia’s state legislature passed the Democrats’ proposed congressional map on Tuesday, sending the bill to Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger for her signature.

Voters must also approve a constitutional amendment allowing lawmakers to enact a new map in an April 21 vote. In addition, Democrats are also appealing a lower court ruling that found that legislators hadn’t followed proper procedures in referring the amendment to the ballot.

Last week, the state’s intermediate Court of Appeals asked the state Supreme Court to hear the appeal directly, saying the dispute was of “such imperative public importance as to justify the deviation from normal appellate practice.”

Senate

KY-Sen

Allies of Rep. Andy Barr have begun what the Courier Journal reports is a $2.5 million ad campaign attacking one of his top rivals in the GOP primary, Nate Morris, as a “woke” businessman.

The commercial from Keep America Great PAC castigates Morris for having “signed a pledge supporting DEI” and supporting Nikki Haley’s failed effort to deny Donald Trump the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Trump has yet to back anyone in the closely watched May 19 primary for the seat that Mitch McConnell is giving up.

This latest offensive comes shortly after Barr drew attention—and condemnation—for his own new spot, in which he declares, “It’s not a sin to be white.”

In his ad, the congressman delivers that line after he accuses Morris of being one of the “corporate losers” to “fall for” DEI. He later says, “[I]t’s not against the law to be male, and it shouldn’t be disqualifying to be a Christian.”

Barr’s ad does not mention former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who is also competing in the primary. Cameron, who would be the first Black person to represent Kentucky in the Senate, has led in most polls, but he’s struggled to raise money compared to the wealthy Morris and well-connected Barr.

Cameron, who was the GOP’s unsuccessful nominee against Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in 2023, has claimed his campaign has experienced financial issues because he’s alienated McConnell and his donor network. While Cameron previously worked as the senator’s general counsel and once described him as a “friend” and a “mentor,” he’s joined almost everyone in GOP politics in blasting McConnell’s votes against Trump’s agenda.

“It’s probably the worst-kept secret in town that the McConnell team is helping the Barr team,” Cameron recently told the Lexington Herald-Leader. “[I’ve] heard that from donors that I’ve sat face-to-face with that told me that, as a McConnell donor, they’re now supporting the Barr campaign.”

The incumbent has not backed the congressman, a former McConnell intern who has also lacerated him during his Senate campaign, or anyone else in this race. A McConnell spokesperson responded to Cameron’s insinuations by telling the paper that the senator doesn’t intend to abandon his public neutrality.

ME-Sen

After suggesting for months that she hadn’t made up her mind about seeking reelection, Republican Sen. Susan Collins said on Tuesday that she’d run for a sixth term representing Maine.

Collins will likely face either Gov. Janet Mills or oyster farmer Graham Platner in November. Immediately after her announcement, the pro-Democratic Senate Majority PAC said it had booked $24 million in advertising time for the general election. SMP’s GOP counterpart, the Senate Leadership Fund, previously said it would spend $42 million on Collins’ behalf.

TX-Sen

Rep. Jasmine Crockett began airing her first TV ads for the March 3 Democratic primary on Tuesday, a move that comes more than a month after state Rep. James Talarico first took to the airwaves.

Talarico and an allied super PAC have used their considerable head start to blanket Texans’ TV screens. The Texas Tribune’s Jasper Scherer, citing data from AdImpact, says that Talarico’s campaign spent or reserved $12.3 million in ad time, while his supporters at a group called Lone Star Rising have deployed another $3.8 million.

Crockett, by contrast, has so far booked just $1.5 million, Scherer says. Both sides are still waiting to see whether a pro-Crockett outside group will get involved during the remaining three weeks of the contest—something Crockett backers have suggested is in the works but has yet to materialize as of Tuesday.

Crockett’s side, though, argues that the congresswoman, who has a large following on social media, doesn’t need to match Talarico on TV.

“This isn’t an apples to apples comparison of traditional campaigns because for all intents and purposes, Jasmine Crockett is not a traditional politician,” Jen Ramos, a Crockett supporter who is also a member of the state party’s Executive Committee, told Alex Roarty of NOTUS. “So it would only make sense that she does not run a campaign in a traditional way.”

“Candidates of color cannot use these traditional methods because these traditional methods were not designed for them,” Ramos added.

No one disputes that Crockett, who would be the first Black person to represent Texas in the Senate, is waging a campaign that’s anything but traditional. Roarty reports that she hasn’t even revealed who her campaign manager is—or whether she even has one—and that confusion over who is running her operation has been a source of “particular frustration” for fellow Democrats.

Even Crockett’s opening ad, which debuted online during the Super Bowl before it began running on TV two days later, has hardly been conventional.

The spot depicts lightning emanating from Crockett as she confronts what the Houston Chronicle’s Faith Bugenhagen characterizes as “a cartoon, anime-esque depiction of the back of President Donald Trump.” The final shot of the candidate standing with a huge number of supporters, though, is the moment that generated the most attention.

Observers quickly speculated that Crockett had used AI tools to make it look as though she was surrounded by a horde of hundreds of people. Her team responded to Bugenhagen’s inquiries with what the reporter notes was neither a confirmation nor a denial. The campaign instead said, “Our new ad was created through hundreds of hours of real craft and collaboration between creatives and union labor.”

On the GOP side, allies of Attorney General Ken Paxton have also now begun airing what would be the first TV ads of the campaign aimed at helping Paxton—except that they don’t actually mention him. Lone Star Liberty PAC’s opening offensive instead is entirely directed against Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is competing against Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn in an ugly three-way race.

Morning Digest: Republicans contemplate giving up on Cornyn

“Wesley Hunt didn’t vote for President Trump,” claims the narrator, “But Wesley Hunt did say he has no regrets about voting for Hillary Clinton.” The narrator later accuses Hunt of backing Barack Obama.

Hunt acknowledged during his unsuccessful 2020 House campaign that he last cast a vote in a primary in 2008, when he said he’d taken part in the Democratic primary after Rush Limbaugh called for Republicans to support Clinton to “bloody up Obama politically.”

But while Hunt indicated that he’d heeded Limbaugh’s call to back Clinton, he later told the New York Times in 2022 that he’d actually cast that ballot for Obama. Hunt, who would go on to win a House seat that year on his second try, added that he’d supported John McCain in the general election.

But while Hunt, who, like Crockett, would be Texas’ first Black senator, said he’d already considered himself a Republican by then, he still had fond words for the 44th president. In that same 2022 interview, he told the Times, “In many ways President Obama is actually why somebody like me even exists”—a line that also made it into Lone Star Liberty’s spot.

Cornyn’s allies also accuse the congressman of supporting Clinton in their own new anti-Hunt ad, though they also focus on some far more recent sins against MAGA.

“President Trump needs every Republican vote in Congress,” says the narrator for Lonestar Victory Fund. “But Wesley Hunt’s been AWOL. Hunt skipped over 20% of his congressional votes.”

Governors

NY-Gov

New York Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado announced Tuesday that he was ending his intraparty challenge against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, a decision he said he reached because “there is simply no viable path forward.”

Delgado, who struggled to attract the money and endorsements necessary to overcome his huge polling deficit, was Hochul’s only serious opponent in the June 23 primary. In the fall, the governor will likely face Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who likewise appears to be on a glide path to capturing the GOP nomination.

After surviving a tough 2022 campaign, Hochul appeared to once again be vulnerable, in both the primary and potentially the general election as well. However, she’s seen a major turnaround in her fortunes since Donald Trump reclaimed the White House. Hochul has spent the last year positioning herself as an ardent foe of the administration, and Empire State voters appear to be viewing her current incarnation more favorably.

The governor posted a 54-41 job approval rating in a Siena University poll conducted in late January, a considerable shift from the 41-51 deficit the school found in October of 2024. Siena’s most recent survey also showed Hochul defeating Blakeman in a 54-28 landslide.

House

CA-43

Nonprofit executive Myla Rahman announced Tuesday that she would wage an intraparty challenge against Rep. Maxine Waters, an 87-year-old Democrat who is seeking a 19th term.

“The community has said that they’d like new energy, a new perspective,” Rahman, 53, told Politico of her bid to represent South Los Angeles and neighboring suburbs like Inglewood and Compton. Rahman also argued she’d be a “more energetic, younger, more relatable in terms of the experiences that people face in the district.”

Rahman had been running for a seat in the state Assembly before switching to the 43rd Congressional District and had self-funded nearly all of the $35,000 that her campaign brought in. Rahman, though, says she’s “very confident” she’ll raise a serious sum for what will be a tough race against a well-known incumbent who has never struggled to win reelection.

Waters, long an outspoken liberal, emerged as one of Donald Trump’s most prominent foils early in his first term, and Time Magazine included her in its 2018 list of the 100 most influential people in the world.

While Waters hasn’t attracted the same level of attention since Trump returned to the White House, she’s argued that her extensive seniority makes her too valuable to lose. The incumbent told Punchbowl News last year she wanted to regain her old spot as chair of the Financial Services Committee if Democrats retake the chamber, adding that she wants to remain there “for a lot more time.”

Despite her connections inside and outside of Congress, though, Waters hasn’t raised much money for her latest reelection effort. The incumbent brought in just shy of $80,000 during the final three months of 2025 and ended the year with about $150,000 in the bank.

The 43rd District, which was not impacted by the state’s new congressional map, backed Kamala Harris 73-24. Because this seat is so heavily Democratic, there’s a good chance that Waters and Rahman will advance past the June 2 top-two primary and face off again in the fall general election.

FL-27

Journalist Eliott Rodriguez, who recently retired after a long career at CBS’ Miami affiliate, is considering a bid against Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, the Miami Herald reports.

Two other Democrats, businessman Richard Lamondin and attorney Robin Peguero, are already running for South Florida’s 27th District, which backed Donald Trump by a 57-42 margin in 2024. Democrats, though, hope that the GOP’s boomeranging fortunes with Latino voters will help put this seat in play.

GA-11

State Rep. Jordan Riley is the latest Republican considering a bid for Georgia’s newly open 11th Congressional District, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. So far, neurosurgeon John Cowan is the only notable candidate to enter the GOP primary following Rep. Barry Loudermilk’s retirement announcement, but many other names could join.

IL-07

AIPAC’s United Democracy Project began airing ads on Monday to support Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin ahead of the packed March 17 Democratic primary for Illinois’ open 7th District.

The first commercial, which Jewish Insider reports is part of a $500,000 buy, touts the candidate as the “fearless” daughter of “a single mom on public assistance.” The spot, which—as per usual for AIPAC—does not mention Israel or any related topics, goes on to pledge that Conyears-Ervin will stand up to Donald Trump and focus on “lowering costs.”

Conyears-Ervin is one of 13 Democrats competing to succeed Rep. Danny Davis, who opted against seeking a 16th term representing a safely blue constituency that includes Chicago’s West Side and downtown. Davis, who turned back a challenge from Conyears-Ervin two years ago, is backing state Rep. La Shawn Ford.

Two other candidates, however, ended 2025 with considerably more money than the rest of the field.

Jason Friedman, a wealthy businessman who has self-funded part of his campaign, led with just over $1 million in the bank. Emergency room physician Thomas Fisher was in second with about $460,000. Ford and Conyears-Ervin were next up with roughly $310,000 and $220,000, respectively.

Two other contenders, attorney Reed Showalter and former Cook County Commissioner Richard Boykin, had six figures in the bank, while labor leader Anthony Driver had only a little more than $70,000 available. Driver, though, hopes his support from unions like the SEIU will help him overcome his financial deficit.

LA-05

State Rep. Michael Echols announced Tuesday that he would join the race to replace Rep. Julia Letlow, a fellow Republican who is leaving Louisiana’s 5th District behind to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy for renomination.

Echols entered the GOP primary one week after Donald Trump endorsed state Sen. Blake Miguez’s campaign to represent the 5th, a safely red constituency that includes northeastern Louisiana and part of the state capital of Baton Rouge. The newcomer, though, insists that Miguez, who represents communities in the southern part of the state, remains a poor fit here.

“I feel adamant that the person who runs and represents the congressional district needs to live and work in the congressional district,” Echols, who holds the powerful role as chair of the House Republican Caucus, argued to NOLA.com. “You shouldn’t have to cross three congressional districts to get to the people you’re supposed to be representing every day.”

Echols kicked off his bid for the 5th on the same day that one of his would-be rivals, conservative activist Larry Davis, announced he would instead wage a long-shot campaign against Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields in the neighboring 6th District. Louisiana’s candidate filing deadline is Friday.

NV-02, NV-AG

Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian tells the Nevada Independent that he will continue his campaign for attorney general rather than seek the GOP nod to succeed retiring Rep. Mark Amodei.

Tarkanian, who opposed Amodei for renomination in 2022 in one of his numerous failed campaigns for higher office, is now hoping to succeed termed-out Attorney General Aaron Ford, a Democrat who is challenging GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo. Tarkanian’s main primary opponent is attorney Adriana Guzman Fralick, who has Lombardo’s endorsement.

NY-21

New York’s Conservative Party announced Tuesday that it would back Republican Assemblyman Robert Smullen’s campaign to replace GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, who is not seeking reelection in the 21st District.

While the Conservative Party is a separate entity from the Republican Party and has its own ballot line, GOP hopefuls frequently seek its stamp of approval. But wealthy businessman Anthony Constantino, who is Smullen’s main rival in the June 23 GOP primary, is taking a very different approach.

Constantino last year claimed that Conservative Party head Gerard Kassar threatened to kill him and that a staffer’s “brake lines were subsequently cut.” Kassar responded by filing a defamation suit against Constantino.

OH-01

Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno has endorsed Air Force veteran Eric Conroy in his bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in the state’s 1st Congressional District.

Republicans recently made Landsman’s district redder as part of their latest gerrymander, transforming it from a constituency that supported Kamala Harris 53-46 to one that would have given Donald Trump a 51-48 edge.

However, the GOP field has yet to demonstrate it’s ready to take advantage of the new opportunity, as both Conroy and the only other notable candidate, dentist Steven Erbeck, have reported soft fundraising to date.

TN-05

Former Rep. Jim Cooper, who represented Tennessee’s 5th District for more than 30 years, has endorsed Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder in the Democratic primary for the current version of the seat he once held.

In terms of fundraising, Molder has swamped both his lone rival for the Democratic nod, Nashville Metro Councilor Mike Cortese, and the Republican he’s hoping to unseat in November, Rep. Andy Ogles.

But Molder is running on much more difficult turf than Cooper ever did. After the 2020 census, Republicans split the city of Nashville, which had always been in the 5th District, between three different constituencies. That made Cooper’s district much redder and prompted him to retire. Two years later, Donald Trump carried the 5th by an imposing 58-40 margin.

However, Ogles’ indifferent fundraising and litany of scandals, plus a strong performance by Democrat Aftyn Behn in last year’s special election for the neighboring 7th District, have Democrats thinking the incumbent might be vulnerable. At least one Republican thinks so, too: Former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher launched a primary challenge last fall. Trump, though, swiftly endorsed Ogles for another term.

TX-21

Former Bexar County GOP vice chair Kyle Sinclair has dropped his bid for Texas’ open 21st Congressional District and instead endorsed former Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira, who recently earned Donald Trump’s blessing. A few other Republicans are still running, but Teixeira dominated them in fundraising during the final quarter of last year.

Poll Pile

• GA-Gov (R): co/efficient (R): Rick Jackson: 24, Burt Jones: 16, Brad Raffensperger: 9, Chris Carr: 3, Clark Dean: 1, Gregg Kirkpatrick: 1, undecided: 42. The pollster says this survey was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or committee.”

• CA-40 (top-two primary): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Young Kim: Young Kim (R-inc): 23, Ken Calvert (R-inc): 22, Joe Kerr (D): 22, Esther Kim Varet (D): 14.

• CA-48 (top-two primary): Blueprint Polling (D) for Ammar Campa-Najjar: Darrell Issa (R-inc): 44, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 19, Brandon Riker (D): 7, Marni von Wilpert (D): 6, Corinna Contreras (D): 5, Abel Chavez (D): 3.

• TX-18 (D): Lake Research Partners (D) for Christian Menefee: Christian Menefee (inc): 49, Al Green (inc): 29, Amanda Edwards: 7. (Dec.: 41-35 Menefee.) Edwards dropped out of the race after this poll was finished, though her name will remain on the ballot.