The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 981 likely Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show that 84% of likely Black voters will support Harris in November and 8% say they’ll support Trump. Another 8% are undecided.
Imo she either equals Biden or winds up just above him(and in raw numbers, I think she outpaces him because I think she gets a better overall AA turnout)
I'm skeptical about turnout matching Biden's....AA turnout and overall turnout. Eighty-one million votes is a very high bar. Hopefully the message is starting to get through but the reports of base apathy in urban strongholds this October are at least as loud as the proven-true reports of a MAGA wave in South Florida at this time in 2020.
I can absolutely imagine a scenario where turnout this year is meaningfully lower than 2020.
But, I can also see it matching or exceeding. Both 2018 and 2022 saw the highest midterm turnout since the 70s; 2020 wasn't a once-off high turnout election.
The story of the outcome of this year is, in my view, currently coming down to what the story of turnout is. It looks like the MAGA voters are more or less expected to show up and vote. Does the anti-MAGA crowd come out again, does it grow from former republicans willing to preserve democracy, or did some of it grow complacent and thus won't show up?
There's valid arguments for any of those happening. The data is all over the place depending on what pollsters believe will happen and thus how they model their electorate.
Which is a long winded way of saying I wouldn't be surprised if you were right, but I would be unequally unsurprised if you were wrong. It's too hard to tell right now.
I utterly fail to see how Americans can consider 67% a high-turnout Election. By any reasonable measure, as well as comparison to other Western nations, that is absolutely dismal!
At the very least, we should be aiming at a Democratic turnout of 75–80% in every single swing states.
Apex is in Wake County; you probably know that Raleigh is the seat. It's originally a railroad town that boomed with the Research Triangle tech explosion in the late 90s/early 2000s. It's basically a Raleigh suburb and part of the RDU metro.
I think Kamala Harris will significantly exceed Biden’s turnout. In 2020, because of the pandemic, there was minimal canvassing and person-to-person GOTV effort for our side, whereas Trump had this.
Now, in 2024, this is very much reversed. Enthusiasm is through the roof and the Harris-Walz Campaign has invested heavily in GOTV and groundgame operations. Moreover, this is augmented by the GOTV/groundgame efforts of a wide network of local, state and national organizations: Field Team 6, Red Wine & Blue, etc etc.
All in all, the number of volunteers who feel a personal stake in preventing America from turning Fascist is seven-digit.
And what does Trump have? Huge legal bills and grift – his own as well as his operatives’. He has outsourced his GOTV to Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA, and to Elon Musk. What could possibly go wrong??
This follows a trend we've seen with Hispanic only polls and young voter only polls where the numbers look very comparable to 2020 in contrast to Trump consistently, sometimes significantly, overperforming with these groups in the crosstabs of polls.
My prior is that polls that specifically target subgroups tend to be more accurate because the results aren't muddled by people outside the group responding randomly or deliberately that they're a member of the group. The Howard poll isn't likely to get many non-black people inaccurately responding that they are black and voting for Trump.
What are the Hispanic-only polls showing Harris performing comparably to previous Democrats? The only one I've seen is that Telemundo poll from a couple of weeks ago showing Hispanic support for Harris cratering to 54-40.
I've seen the votoLatino one(led by a woman who's name is Kumar, I think) it's @60% Harris with about 7-8% still undecided(personally, I think the undecided % in some of these polls is ridiculously high)
The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 981 likely Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show that 84% of likely Black voters will support Harris in November and 8% say they’ll support Trump. Another 8% are undecided.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-maintains-strong-lead-black-swing-state-voters-new-poll-rcna175420
Imo she either equals Biden or winds up just above him(and in raw numbers, I think she outpaces him because I think she gets a better overall AA turnout)
I'm skeptical about turnout matching Biden's....AA turnout and overall turnout. Eighty-one million votes is a very high bar. Hopefully the message is starting to get through but the reports of base apathy in urban strongholds this October are at least as loud as the proven-true reports of a MAGA wave in South Florida at this time in 2020.
I can absolutely imagine a scenario where turnout this year is meaningfully lower than 2020.
But, I can also see it matching or exceeding. Both 2018 and 2022 saw the highest midterm turnout since the 70s; 2020 wasn't a once-off high turnout election.
The story of the outcome of this year is, in my view, currently coming down to what the story of turnout is. It looks like the MAGA voters are more or less expected to show up and vote. Does the anti-MAGA crowd come out again, does it grow from former republicans willing to preserve democracy, or did some of it grow complacent and thus won't show up?
There's valid arguments for any of those happening. The data is all over the place depending on what pollsters believe will happen and thus how they model their electorate.
Which is a long winded way of saying I wouldn't be surprised if you were right, but I would be unequally unsurprised if you were wrong. It's too hard to tell right now.
Imo Trump being on the ballot increases overall turnout(for both sides)
I utterly fail to see how Americans can consider 67% a high-turnout Election. By any reasonable measure, as well as comparison to other Western nations, that is absolutely dismal!
At the very least, we should be aiming at a Democratic turnout of 75–80% in every single swing states.
You have a solid point.
My mother and I voted today at the Apex (NC) Town Hall. Got in line just before noon, 1.5-hr wait. Line was just as long when we left.
40 minutes is the longest I have ever waited to early vote, previously.
What county?
Apex is in Wake County; you probably know that Raleigh is the seat. It's originally a railroad town that boomed with the Research Triangle tech explosion in the late 90s/early 2000s. It's basically a Raleigh suburb and part of the RDU metro.
I think Kamala Harris will significantly exceed Biden’s turnout. In 2020, because of the pandemic, there was minimal canvassing and person-to-person GOTV effort for our side, whereas Trump had this.
Now, in 2024, this is very much reversed. Enthusiasm is through the roof and the Harris-Walz Campaign has invested heavily in GOTV and groundgame operations. Moreover, this is augmented by the GOTV/groundgame efforts of a wide network of local, state and national organizations: Field Team 6, Red Wine & Blue, etc etc.
All in all, the number of volunteers who feel a personal stake in preventing America from turning Fascist is seven-digit.
And what does Trump have? Huge legal bills and grift – his own as well as his operatives’. He has outsourced his GOTV to Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA, and to Elon Musk. What could possibly go wrong??
This follows a trend we've seen with Hispanic only polls and young voter only polls where the numbers look very comparable to 2020 in contrast to Trump consistently, sometimes significantly, overperforming with these groups in the crosstabs of polls.
My prior is that polls that specifically target subgroups tend to be more accurate because the results aren't muddled by people outside the group responding randomly or deliberately that they're a member of the group. The Howard poll isn't likely to get many non-black people inaccurately responding that they are black and voting for Trump.
You're probably right, but what do you suppose they're doing to weed out liars that's not being done in polling of the entire pool of voters?
What are the Hispanic-only polls showing Harris performing comparably to previous Democrats? The only one I've seen is that Telemundo poll from a couple of weeks ago showing Hispanic support for Harris cratering to 54-40.
Here's one that shows Harris up 59-37, down 51-44 in Florida but up 25+ in the contested states. https://www.hispanicfederation.org/our-work/civicengagement/national-poll-on-latino-voter-sentiment-in-the-2024-election-crosstabs-on-swing-states/
I've seen the votoLatino one(led by a woman who's name is Kumar, I think) it's @60% Harris with about 7-8% still undecided(personally, I think the undecided % in some of these polls is ridiculously high)
So the range between polls is pretty big. I hope we'll get good data on the actual voting after the fact.
Me too; imo if Harris can get 63% of Hispanic in the swing states, then she's ok
on cue here is one of Latino voters in battleground states. Harris leads 62% to 34%
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1846944600352538943
Similar-ish to 2020
I bet 8% turns out to be an overestimate when it comes to actual votes cast.
Can you expound on this? I'm not exactly following your thoughts? Apologies
Nothing deep, I’m just saying Trump will probably get less than 8% of actual votes cast by folks identifying as African-American.
Agreed and I think AA turnout is being low balled