Does anyone remember Bev Harris, Blackbox voting, and all the voting machine conspiracies about Diebold in the 2000s? The recent election denialism made me think of that.
Yes they are. I can’t believe there are progressives who still make excuses for Nader. Without Nader on the ballot, Bush v. Gore would never have happened.
Nader voters were seriously misguided and hurt the country, but they weren't engaging in an unconstitutional power grab. But keep spouting off stuff...
And it wasn't just Broward County's ballot, where more than 10,000 people voted for Pat Buchanan when they meant to vote for Gore. Duval County had just as big of a ballot design problem but it got little press. Confusing ballot design cost Gore more than 20,000 votes.
yep, sure do. I was involved with her and her colleague right here in Warren County, Ohio in 2004, when our Board of Elections was improperly locked up to outside observers after the polls closed on election night by a contrived bomb threat. They came here and did an investigation, in which I participated. I was involved with the recount, also - - county coordinator. (not so fun times).
There but for the grace of God goes our party. In a world without HRC or Obama, it's not impossible that RFK Jr, who was pushing these conspiracies at the time, could have run in our 2008 primary and had a real shot.
I respectfully disagree. He's never held elected office before and that would have severely hurt his chances in the primaries. As the "government is good" party, we Democrats actually expect our politicians to be able to govern and to demonstrate that. Yes, Obama was seen as "inexperienced" in some circles, but at least he was a State Senator and US Senator before he became President. This is a major reason why Orange Slob never tried to run for office under our banner. He knew he'd never make it to the White House that way.
I've always thought JFK jr. would have been our nominee in 2008 if it wasn't for that plane crash. People think he was planning on running for Governor of New York in 2002.
I might be misremembering, but I thought the general expectation was that he was going to go after NYC mayor. We all know that isn't the best launching pad for most people.
I think Vanity Fair had an article out after his death that said people close to him thought he was going for Governor. Really good read if you can find it only somewhere.
Update with correction: As of 8:30pm today, at least 8,740,613 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 1,936,909 • Mail Ballots Returned: 6,767,438. Early Votes have been cast in 36 states plus DC. These 16 states have at least 100,000 votes:
CA 903,487•
MI 857,270•
FL 833,464•*
VA 815,119<
OH 551,001• (Corrected from 719,827)
PA 690,891•
GA 620,687•
IL 432,934<
NJ 408,261•*
MA 360,707•
MN 337,633•
MD 297,805•*
WI 283,123•
IN 220,686•
AZ 172,145•
NE 107,804•*
*) States that report party registration: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV.
Great! First they are saying the Firewall may not be met due to dwindling dem numbers and now it's Harris team in disarray! I thought PA was gonna go our way too. Now we must get NC! Ughh
Actually in the article... it looks like the complaints against Nikki Lu, the Harris PA campaign representative, are because she's from Pittsburgh and not Philly. So... regional prejudice.
Aside from that, it goes against all I've heard of the strong ground game actually going on in PA.
I cannot speak for Philly, but the ground game in rural central PA is strong! I have not seen so many volunteers and so much canvassing since 2008, and maybe not even then.
Thanks for your service(I normally don't speak of my personal activism, but since you posted, I'll add that I'm doing another lit drop just tomorrow morning before I leave on my weekend trip; be prepared for a gas price survey as well); and reading Politico is a waste of time; like Jus here says, if you want to 'do something'; your local\state DEC will assuredly put you to work
Sounds like a rehash of "Dems in disarray" or "black and Latino men supporting Trump" that has little merit or basis. If you feel concerned volunteer or donate.
The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 981 likely Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show that 84% of likely Black voters will support Harris in November and 8% say they’ll support Trump. Another 8% are undecided.
Imo she either equals Biden or winds up just above him(and in raw numbers, I think she outpaces him because I think she gets a better overall AA turnout)
I'm skeptical about turnout matching Biden's....AA turnout and overall turnout. Eighty-one million votes is a very high bar. Hopefully the message is starting to get through but the reports of base apathy in urban strongholds this October are at least as loud as the proven-true reports of a MAGA wave in South Florida at this time in 2020.
I can absolutely imagine a scenario where turnout this year is meaningfully lower than 2020.
But, I can also see it matching or exceeding. Both 2018 and 2022 saw the highest midterm turnout since the 70s; 2020 wasn't a once-off high turnout election.
The story of the outcome of this year is, in my view, currently coming down to what the story of turnout is. It looks like the MAGA voters are more or less expected to show up and vote. Does the anti-MAGA crowd come out again, does it grow from former republicans willing to preserve democracy, or did some of it grow complacent and thus won't show up?
There's valid arguments for any of those happening. The data is all over the place depending on what pollsters believe will happen and thus how they model their electorate.
Which is a long winded way of saying I wouldn't be surprised if you were right, but I would be unequally unsurprised if you were wrong. It's too hard to tell right now.
I utterly fail to see how Americans can consider 67% a high-turnout Election. By any reasonable measure, as well as comparison to other Western nations, that is absolutely dismal!
At the very least, we should be aiming at a Democratic turnout of 75–80% in every single swing states.
Apex is in Wake County; you probably know that Raleigh is the seat. It's originally a railroad town that boomed with the Research Triangle tech explosion in the late 90s/early 2000s. It's basically a Raleigh suburb and part of the RDU metro.
I think Kamala Harris will significantly exceed Biden’s turnout. In 2020, because of the pandemic, there was minimal canvassing and person-to-person GOTV effort for our side, whereas Trump had this.
Now, in 2024, this is very much reversed. Enthusiasm is through the roof and the Harris-Walz Campaign has invested heavily in GOTV and groundgame operations. Moreover, this is augmented by the GOTV/groundgame efforts of a wide network of local, state and national organizations: Field Team 6, Red Wine & Blue, etc etc.
All in all, the number of volunteers who feel a personal stake in preventing America from turning Fascist is seven-digit.
And what does Trump have? Huge legal bills and grift – his own as well as his operatives’. He has outsourced his GOTV to Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA, and to Elon Musk. What could possibly go wrong??
This follows a trend we've seen with Hispanic only polls and young voter only polls where the numbers look very comparable to 2020 in contrast to Trump consistently, sometimes significantly, overperforming with these groups in the crosstabs of polls.
My prior is that polls that specifically target subgroups tend to be more accurate because the results aren't muddled by people outside the group responding randomly or deliberately that they're a member of the group. The Howard poll isn't likely to get many non-black people inaccurately responding that they are black and voting for Trump.
What are the Hispanic-only polls showing Harris performing comparably to previous Democrats? The only one I've seen is that Telemundo poll from a couple of weeks ago showing Hispanic support for Harris cratering to 54-40.
I've seen the votoLatino one(led by a woman who's name is Kumar, I think) it's @60% Harris with about 7-8% still undecided(personally, I think the undecided % in some of these polls is ridiculously high)
Does WWE have its very own broadcast channel? Or McMahon have veto power over which ads are broadcast in conjunction with its ... theatrical events? Unless that is the case, I would think that anyone is free to book advertisement with the broadcaster.
If Craig loses it will be because that primary fight got too nasty. Particularly at the end. We Democrats need to treat 2008 as the exception, not the rule when it comes to intraparty fighting.
Most G20 countries don't have primaries and go straight to the general election. We do. Primaries often hurt. Especially when people get too attached to individual politicians.
NORTH CAROLINA: Early In-Person Voting started today. Does anyone have links to reliable sources for turnout at the polls? Good data-oriented, on-the.ground reporting? Or better yet: live updates of how many people are voting?
GEORGIA has a stellar website, showing hourly updates (with just 30-minute lag) of how many people have voted:
Here's a link below but all comparisons to either 2020 or 2022 are unfair. This is the first "normal" election with no-excuse mail-in voting in PA since the law passed in spring 2019.
GEORGIA: Tom Bonier’s TargetEarly (TargetSmart) has posted its "Modeled Party" analysis of Georgia’s Early Vote. So far, Republican and Democratic voting seems to be neck-in-neck. This is a strong contrast with the 2020 Presidential and 2022 Midterm Elections, when Democrats were running up a significant Early-Vote advantage.
I’ve never gotten a good explanation on how his model actually works, which is why I’m skeptical of its efficacy (not just for meh Georgia, but also for Michigan where his figures by all accounts look stellar for us)
That’s a valid criticism. It is also one of my long-standing criticisms against Nate Silver, even when he was running FiveThirtyEight. Nate always added (and continues to add) a "special sauce" – and the ingredients and their precise mix are proprietary; this means no-one can replicate and quality-assure Nate’s analysis and prognosis.
In general the poll aggregators are past their sell by date because the polls themselves just arent that useful. They try to add value by doing some special sauce math, but given the inaccuracy of the polls the best they can do is tell us that a close race is close.
Right now, Republican-aligned pollsters – many of them crap pollsters – are releasing a flood of swing-state polls, clearly with the intention of impacting the averages. (The pollster version of Steve Bannon’s "flooding the zone with shit".)
Imho, 538 should be far stricter with enforcing their quality demands. (Say, use only polls rated +1.5 / B or higher.) Given the sheer number of recent bad polls, merely giving them a low weighting does NOT solve the problem – those bad polls are still skewing the averages.
Does anyone remember Bev Harris, Blackbox voting, and all the voting machine conspiracies about Diebold in the 2000s? The recent election denialism made me think of that.
I do remember the "election denialism" of 2000 – SCOTUS denied that the presidential winner be decided by an accurate count of the Florida election.
I blame those who voted for Nader for 2000.
Yes, but also Roger Stone, Governor Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris (Florida SoS).
Likewise three members of George W. Bush’s legal team who later were duly rewarded: John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.
They're not as much to blame as the unconstitutional Supreme Court's order partisan power grab.
Yes they are. I can’t believe there are progressives who still make excuses for Nader. Without Nader on the ballot, Bush v. Gore would never have happened.
Dude; no one is making excuses for Nader; chill out and focus; then reread what he posted(you don't get to add to his post; then editorializing it)
Nader voters were seriously misguided and hurt the country, but they weren't engaging in an unconstitutional power grab. But keep spouting off stuff...
Without the Nader voters the power grab doesn’t happen.
Also Nader got GOP money.
Also the butterfly ballot design.
And it wasn't just Broward County's ballot, where more than 10,000 people voted for Pat Buchanan when they meant to vote for Gore. Duval County had just as big of a ballot design problem but it got little press. Confusing ballot design cost Gore more than 20,000 votes.
yep, sure do. I was involved with her and her colleague right here in Warren County, Ohio in 2004, when our Board of Elections was improperly locked up to outside observers after the polls closed on election night by a contrived bomb threat. They came here and did an investigation, in which I participated. I was involved with the recount, also - - county coordinator. (not so fun times).
I wonder whatever happened to her.
She died. Her colleague, Andy Stephenson, died as well a few years later of brain cancer. Sad.
There but for the grace of God goes our party. In a world without HRC or Obama, it's not impossible that RFK Jr, who was pushing these conspiracies at the time, could have run in our 2008 primary and had a real shot.
I respectfully disagree. He's never held elected office before and that would have severely hurt his chances in the primaries. As the "government is good" party, we Democrats actually expect our politicians to be able to govern and to demonstrate that. Yes, Obama was seen as "inexperienced" in some circles, but at least he was a State Senator and US Senator before he became President. This is a major reason why Orange Slob never tried to run for office under our banner. He knew he'd never make it to the White House that way.
I've always thought JFK jr. would have been our nominee in 2008 if it wasn't for that plane crash. People think he was planning on running for Governor of New York in 2002.
I agree
Only if he had gotten elected somewhere (either New York or Massachusetts most likely) statewide first.
I might be misremembering, but I thought the general expectation was that he was going to go after NYC mayor. We all know that isn't the best launching pad for most people.
I think Vanity Fair had an article out after his death that said people close to him thought he was going for Governor. Really good read if you can find it only somewhere.
It would have been a fascinating alternative history if he had won governor in 2002. It might have been a tall order though.
Early Vote breaks 8 million.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
EARLY VOTE
Update with correction: As of 8:30pm today, at least 8,740,613 people have voted. In-Person Early Votes: 1,936,909 • Mail Ballots Returned: 6,767,438. Early Votes have been cast in 36 states plus DC. These 16 states have at least 100,000 votes:
CA 903,487•
MI 857,270•
FL 833,464•*
VA 815,119<
OH 551,001• (Corrected from 719,827)
PA 690,891•
GA 620,687•
IL 432,934<
NJ 408,261•*
MA 360,707•
MN 337,633•
MD 297,805•*
WI 283,123•
IN 220,686•
AZ 172,145•
NE 107,804•*
*) States that report party registration: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV.
•) States with updates today.
<) Updates are lagging.
Re: Stellar Democratic fundraising… Looks like Elon Musk will be writing another check.
Not to mention Timothy Mellon, who has funded something approaching $200m (172 by old date), Miriam Adelson (100m) and others....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/biggest-campaign-donors-election-2024/
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-pennsylvania-campaign-drama-00183844
Great! First they are saying the Firewall may not be met due to dwindling dem numbers and now it's Harris team in disarray! I thought PA was gonna go our way too. Now we must get NC! Ughh
Please take a breath; or better yet, step away from politics for a few days
"Worry less, do more!"
By the way; that's the exact same article, written by the exact same rag every single election; it's no better than trash
Actually in the article... it looks like the complaints against Nikki Lu, the Harris PA campaign representative, are because she's from Pittsburgh and not Philly. So... regional prejudice.
Aside from that, it goes against all I've heard of the strong ground game actually going on in PA.
It's a junk article written by a rag
I cannot speak for Philly, but the ground game in rural central PA is strong! I have not seen so many volunteers and so much canvassing since 2008, and maybe not even then.
The article is crap; it should be ignored
Not only is it crap, it’s by Politico.
That's funny!
the idea that a dem presidential campaign has a lagging ground game in Philly is hilarious
Especially this Dem presidential campaign.
I feel you Gina. These next three weeks are going to be exhausting.
Only if you read Politico. Otherwise, the next three weeks can be fun.
I'm actually enjoying all the lit dropping I'm doing. I'm up to over 600 doors.
And I'm excited to start door knocking as well
Thanks for your service(I normally don't speak of my personal activism, but since you posted, I'll add that I'm doing another lit drop just tomorrow morning before I leave on my weekend trip; be prepared for a gas price survey as well); and reading Politico is a waste of time; like Jus here says, if you want to 'do something'; your local\state DEC will assuredly put you to work
Sounds like a rehash of "Dems in disarray" or "black and Latino men supporting Trump" that has little merit or basis. If you feel concerned volunteer or donate.
This is Politico. They have a tendency to exaggerate things when it comes to reporting on Democrats and their “drama.” It’s been going on for years.
It's Politico. You might as well get your news from Pravda.
The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion poll of 981 likely Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show that 84% of likely Black voters will support Harris in November and 8% say they’ll support Trump. Another 8% are undecided.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/harris-maintains-strong-lead-black-swing-state-voters-new-poll-rcna175420
Imo she either equals Biden or winds up just above him(and in raw numbers, I think she outpaces him because I think she gets a better overall AA turnout)
I'm skeptical about turnout matching Biden's....AA turnout and overall turnout. Eighty-one million votes is a very high bar. Hopefully the message is starting to get through but the reports of base apathy in urban strongholds this October are at least as loud as the proven-true reports of a MAGA wave in South Florida at this time in 2020.
I can absolutely imagine a scenario where turnout this year is meaningfully lower than 2020.
But, I can also see it matching or exceeding. Both 2018 and 2022 saw the highest midterm turnout since the 70s; 2020 wasn't a once-off high turnout election.
The story of the outcome of this year is, in my view, currently coming down to what the story of turnout is. It looks like the MAGA voters are more or less expected to show up and vote. Does the anti-MAGA crowd come out again, does it grow from former republicans willing to preserve democracy, or did some of it grow complacent and thus won't show up?
There's valid arguments for any of those happening. The data is all over the place depending on what pollsters believe will happen and thus how they model their electorate.
Which is a long winded way of saying I wouldn't be surprised if you were right, but I would be unequally unsurprised if you were wrong. It's too hard to tell right now.
Imo Trump being on the ballot increases overall turnout(for both sides)
I utterly fail to see how Americans can consider 67% a high-turnout Election. By any reasonable measure, as well as comparison to other Western nations, that is absolutely dismal!
At the very least, we should be aiming at a Democratic turnout of 75–80% in every single swing states.
You have a solid point.
My mother and I voted today at the Apex (NC) Town Hall. Got in line just before noon, 1.5-hr wait. Line was just as long when we left.
40 minutes is the longest I have ever waited to early vote, previously.
What county?
Apex is in Wake County; you probably know that Raleigh is the seat. It's originally a railroad town that boomed with the Research Triangle tech explosion in the late 90s/early 2000s. It's basically a Raleigh suburb and part of the RDU metro.
I think Kamala Harris will significantly exceed Biden’s turnout. In 2020, because of the pandemic, there was minimal canvassing and person-to-person GOTV effort for our side, whereas Trump had this.
Now, in 2024, this is very much reversed. Enthusiasm is through the roof and the Harris-Walz Campaign has invested heavily in GOTV and groundgame operations. Moreover, this is augmented by the GOTV/groundgame efforts of a wide network of local, state and national organizations: Field Team 6, Red Wine & Blue, etc etc.
All in all, the number of volunteers who feel a personal stake in preventing America from turning Fascist is seven-digit.
And what does Trump have? Huge legal bills and grift – his own as well as his operatives’. He has outsourced his GOTV to Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA, and to Elon Musk. What could possibly go wrong??
This follows a trend we've seen with Hispanic only polls and young voter only polls where the numbers look very comparable to 2020 in contrast to Trump consistently, sometimes significantly, overperforming with these groups in the crosstabs of polls.
My prior is that polls that specifically target subgroups tend to be more accurate because the results aren't muddled by people outside the group responding randomly or deliberately that they're a member of the group. The Howard poll isn't likely to get many non-black people inaccurately responding that they are black and voting for Trump.
You're probably right, but what do you suppose they're doing to weed out liars that's not being done in polling of the entire pool of voters?
What are the Hispanic-only polls showing Harris performing comparably to previous Democrats? The only one I've seen is that Telemundo poll from a couple of weeks ago showing Hispanic support for Harris cratering to 54-40.
Here's one that shows Harris up 59-37, down 51-44 in Florida but up 25+ in the contested states. https://www.hispanicfederation.org/our-work/civicengagement/national-poll-on-latino-voter-sentiment-in-the-2024-election-crosstabs-on-swing-states/
I've seen the votoLatino one(led by a woman who's name is Kumar, I think) it's @60% Harris with about 7-8% still undecided(personally, I think the undecided % in some of these polls is ridiculously high)
So the range between polls is pretty big. I hope we'll get good data on the actual voting after the fact.
Me too; imo if Harris can get 63% of Hispanic in the swing states, then she's ok
on cue here is one of Latino voters in battleground states. Harris leads 62% to 34%
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1846944600352538943
Similar-ish to 2020
I bet 8% turns out to be an overestimate when it comes to actual votes cast.
Can you expound on this? I'm not exactly following your thoughts? Apologies
Nothing deep, I’m just saying Trump will probably get less than 8% of actual votes cast by folks identifying as African-American.
Agreed and I think AA turnout is being low balled
WaPo headline suggests GOTV efforts are somehow nefarious:
– "Massive influx of shadowy get-out-the-vote spending floods swing states"
https://wapo.st/3Yp5gSa
(The only thing that clearly is nefarious is Elon Musk offering people $47 for each swing state voter they recruit for Trump.)
Great political messaging video! Dave Bautista tells us who "strongman!" Trump really is.
https://nitter.poast.org/jessejoyce/status/1846764158945317381#m
Should be a hit against Trump’s relationship with the WWE.
Should be shown repeatedly during WWE broadcasts!
Unfortunately, it will likely not as Trump has a long history with Vince McMahon.
Does WWE have its very own broadcast channel? Or McMahon have veto power over which ads are broadcast in conjunction with its ... theatrical events? Unless that is the case, I would think that anyone is free to book advertisement with the broadcaster.
Bautista may have a contract situation here..??
Ah, never having watched WWE, I hadn’t realized Bautista himself had been a wrestler.
UMass/YouGov:
PA Harris 46-45
NH Harris 50-41
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Umass_Lowell_PA_Oct.pdf
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Umass_Lowell_NH_Oct.pdf
Any polls regarding the NH Gov race? The question is how many Harris/Ayotte voters will there be?
Ayotte 42-41. According to this poll.
So many undecideds with such little time left, September primaries need eliminating; way too late!! 😢🇺🇲
They should have pushed the leaners.
This👆👆👆
If Craig loses it will be because that primary fight got too nasty. Particularly at the end. We Democrats need to treat 2008 as the exception, not the rule when it comes to intraparty fighting.
Most G20 countries elect a President in about three months. September primaries are fine
I disagree
Most G20 countries don't have primaries and go straight to the general election. We do. Primaries often hurt. Especially when people get too attached to individual politicians.
NORTH CAROLINA: Early In-Person Voting started today. Does anyone have links to reliable sources for turnout at the polls? Good data-oriented, on-the.ground reporting? Or better yet: live updates of how many people are voting?
GEORGIA has a stellar website, showing hourly updates (with just 30-minute lag) of how many people have voted:
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
In-person: 312,260 on Tuesday; 276,667 yesterday; 252,128 today as of 6:30pm.
Wednesday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
28,714 new requests, R+2144. Overall request advantage now down to D+523,214 (lowest since 10/4)
60,836 ballot returns, D+13,418. Overall ballot advantage now D+271,171.
Total Requests:
D - 1,035,258 (58.87%)
R - 512,044 (29.12%)
O - 211,107 (12.01%)
Total - 1,758,409
Total Returns:
D - 450,379 (43.50% return rate)
R - 179,208 (35.00%)
O - 62,974 (29.83%)
Total - 692,561
Great! You beat me to it by 2 minutes. I’ve deleted my post. :)
Erie, Luzerne & Westmoreland are still lagging behind. Each have 30-40k in requests with a 9-11k Dem advantage & current have a return rate under 5%.
Do we have 2020 numbers to compare this to?
Here's a link below but all comparisons to either 2020 or 2022 are unfair. This is the first "normal" election with no-excuse mail-in voting in PA since the law passed in spring 2019.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22registeredParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=PA&view_type=state
https://bsky.app/profile/coachfinstock.bsky.social/post/3l6pmokpp6a2i
New contender for best ad of the cycle!
Any other way to post this? For some reason it's locked for me?
Yeah, "Sign-in required."
GEORGIA: Tom Bonier’s TargetEarly (TargetSmart) has posted its "Modeled Party" analysis of Georgia’s Early Vote. So far, Republican and Democratic voting seems to be neck-in-neck. This is a strong contrast with the 2020 Presidential and 2022 Midterm Elections, when Democrats were running up a significant Early-Vote advantage.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state
I’ve never gotten a good explanation on how his model actually works, which is why I’m skeptical of its efficacy (not just for meh Georgia, but also for Michigan where his figures by all accounts look stellar for us)
That’s a valid criticism. It is also one of my long-standing criticisms against Nate Silver, even when he was running FiveThirtyEight. Nate always added (and continues to add) a "special sauce" – and the ingredients and their precise mix are proprietary; this means no-one can replicate and quality-assure Nate’s analysis and prognosis.
Nate is past his sell date imo
Worse. Nate is in bed with Peter Thiel and his Polymarkets.
In general the poll aggregators are past their sell by date because the polls themselves just arent that useful. They try to add value by doing some special sauce math, but given the inaccuracy of the polls the best they can do is tell us that a close race is close.
Right now, Republican-aligned pollsters – many of them crap pollsters – are releasing a flood of swing-state polls, clearly with the intention of impacting the averages. (The pollster version of Steve Bannon’s "flooding the zone with shit".)
Imho, 538 should be far stricter with enforcing their quality demands. (Say, use only polls rated +1.5 / B or higher.) Given the sheer number of recent bad polls, merely giving them a low weighting does NOT solve the problem – those bad polls are still skewing the averages.
I initially read "special sauce meth," which it might as well be...
Because Republicans are now being told it’s okay to vote early.
GA is like FL in that GOP suburbanites voted early fairly heavily, no?