What stands out to me: Trump carried the median district by 1.6% more than he did the country as a whole. But Republicans won the median seat by only 1 point — or 1.7% less than they won the overall House vote.
That means House Democrats outperformed the presidential baseline in the tipping-point district by over 3 points. Had they merely…
What stands out to me: Trump carried the median district by 1.6% more than he did the country as a whole. But Republicans won the median seat by only 1 point — or 1.7% less than they won the overall House vote.
That means House Democrats outperformed the presidential baseline in the tipping-point district by over 3 points. Had they merely matched it, they’d be ten seats (won by Republican candidates between 1.0% and 4.3%) short of where they are today — facing down a 230–205 GOP majority.
What stands out to me: Trump carried the median district by 1.6% more than he did the country as a whole. But Republicans won the median seat by only 1 point — or 1.7% less than they won the overall House vote.
That means House Democrats outperformed the presidential baseline in the tipping-point district by over 3 points. Had they merely matched it, they’d be ten seats (won by Republican candidates between 1.0% and 4.3%) short of where they are today — facing down a 230–205 GOP majority.