Illinois' insanely expensive primaries are finally coming to an end
Our preview gives the lay of the land in every major race
The 2026 primary season continues Tuesday as voters in Illinois pick candidates for state and federal offices, including in several Democratic contests that have drawn attention far outside the Land of Lincoln.
Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin announced last April that he would not seek a sixth term representing this reliably blue state, leading to an expensive and unpredictable three-way battle between Rep. Robin Kelly, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.
The decisions by Kelly and Krishnamoorthi to run statewide in turn set off packed primaries for the House districts they are giving up. There are similarly busy races underway to replace Democratic Reps. Danny Davis and Jan Schakowsky, who are both retiring after close to three decades in Congress.
The primaries for these four Democratic-friendly districts, all of which are located in or around Chicago, have been defined by massive outlays from third-party interests. Organizations affiliated with the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, the AI industry, and the crypto sector have been responsible for most of the over $30 million in outside spending that’s been deployed across these four House races.
These well-heeled groups aren’t just interested in using their resources to promote their favored candidates and undermine contenders they’re hoping to keep out of Congress. Some candidates who have struggled to gain support have been the involuntary beneficiaries of positive ads that are in fact aimed at diverting votes away from a stronger rival.
Many of these PACs have also deployed misleading ads attacking vocal progressives as insufficiently liberal while simultaneously portraying centrists as progressive warriors. Semafor’s Dave Weigel dubbed this approach “bizarro-world branding.”
“What hasn’t changed is that these PACs run on what their strategists believe will play with Democratic primary voters, not what their funders want to achieve,” he wrote. “As a result, watching TV in Chicago makes you feel like a cordyceps fungus has taken over the Democratic Party — imitating its messaging to destroy it, just as the parasite does in the wild.”
Below, you’ll find our guide to these five races. We’re also shining a spotlight on the Democratic primary for president of the Cook County Board of Commissioners, where four-term incumbent Toni Preckwinkle is fighting to remain the leader of America’s second-most populous county.
When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
You can find The Downballot’s calculations for the results of the 2024 presidential election for each of the state’s 17 congressional districts, as well as an interactive map from Dave’s Redistricting App.
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time. Join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night!
IL-Sen (D) (54-43 Harris)
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi enjoyed a huge advantage on the airwaves and in the polls well into January, but he’s no longer the solid favorite against Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.
Things began to change when a super PAC partially funded by Gov. JB Pritzker, who, along with Sen. Tammy Duckworth, is Stratton’s most prominent supporter, started airing ads two months before the primary.
The intervention appears to have made a difference, as a trio of internal polls released in March showed Stratton with a 2-to-5-point advantage over the congressman. Krishnamoorthi’s side countered with surveys finding him maintaining a double-digit lead, though even those numbers still show him losing ground late in the race.
FiftyPlusOne’s average gave Krishnamoorthi a final 34-30 edge over Stratton, with Rep. Robin Kelly taking a distant third place with 13%. (Seven other Democrats are also on the ballot, but none have attracted much attention.)
But Kelly, who has struggled to raise money, could still have an impact on the race. Krishnamoorthi’s allies have spent more than $1 million on ads ostensibly promoting Kelly, who, like Stratton, is Black—a move aimed at weakening the lieutenant governor.
The race has featured little in the way of substantive policy differences between the candidates, who’ve frequently argued—and attacked one another—over who’s most beholden to wealthy donors and corporate interests. Opposition to ICE has been a central theme, but as NBC noted, all three contenders have called for the agency to be “abolished” or “dismantled.”
IL-02 (D) (66-33 Harris)
Ten Democrats are campaigning to succeed Kelly in the 2nd Congressional District, a sprawling constituency that includes a slice of southeastern Chicago, the southern Chicago suburbs, and parts of east-central Illinois.
The most recognizable name belongs to former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who is Kelly’s immediate predecessor and the son and namesake of the late civil rights figure. Jackson, who represented previous versions of this district starting in 1995, resigned shortly before pleading guilty to federal corruption charges in 2012.
Jackson went on to serve a year and a half in prison after admitting to spending $750,000 in campaign contributions on personal purchases and has focused on the theme of redemption in his comeback effort.
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