Morning Digest: Republicans spurn Trump's pick and nominate candidate who dropped out

Islamophobia may have just led the GOP to fumble away a race for a swing district

Michigan Republican Tom Smith (right). (Credit: Tom Smith Facebook)

Leading Off

MI-08

Former General Motors engineer Tom Smith said Wednesday he would accept the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, a declaration that came one day after he became the only person we know of to ever beat a Donald Trump-endorsed primary opponent without actually being a candidate.

But though both parties were startled on Tuesday evening when Smith, an unknown who dropped out of the race last month, scored a 50-33 victory against Navy veteran Amir Hassan in Michigan’s swingy 8th District, only one side is responsible for the outcome.

Republicans this year have aggressively meddled in Democratic primaries across the country—conservatives publicly bragged Wednesday that they’d successfully boosted environmental William Lawrence in the neighboring 7th District—but Democrats took no action to hinder Hassan.

The GOP base, however, was quite eager to tear down Trump’s pick in the 8th District, a constituency in the Flint and the Tri-Cities areas that he’d carried by a narrow 50-48 margin in 2024. MAGA fans didn’t seem to care that Hassan was the only contender waging a serious effort against McDonald Rivet, even as he came nowhere close to matching her gigantic fundraising hauls.

Hassan, as The New Republic reported the week before the primary, was the target of Islamophobic attacks on Truth Social following Trump’s endorsement. One user responded to Trump, “Have you lost your mind, endorsing Muslim candidates?”

Hassan, however, has publicly talked about his conversion from Islam to Christianity during the campaign.

The erstwhile frontrunner told the Midland Daily News in April that he’d been raised Christian and had become a Muslim during his time in the armed forces. But while his campaign website initially identified him as a “proud Muslim,” Hassan informed the paper he’d “rededicated myself to Christ” on Easter.

That didn’t deter Smith, however, from firing off an Islamophobic attack on Hassan in mid-July, calling on Republicans to reject “possible Trojan Horse candidate and lifelong Democrat Amir Haneef Hassan.”

Smith, though, didn’t plan to be the one to benefit from Hassan’s fall. Instead, Smith used that missive to urge his supporters to back Al Lemmo, a retired civilian mechanical engineer with the Army.

At the time, though, almost no one cared about what an obscure now-former contender like Smith had to say.

Just days earlier, Smith had sent a handwritten note to the FEC saying he would not be filing a fundraising report for the just-completed second quarter because he’d brought in a mere $1,850. (Candidates only need to file disclosures after they’ve raised or spent more than $5,000.)

In a plaintive postscript, he added, “I could not file this form electronically because I have had no success logging in and have not been able to get a response from the help desk.”

But Smith’s technical challenges were the least of anyone’s concerns going into Tuesday’s primary, a contest in which the Trump-endorsed Hassan seemed poised for an easy win. Lemmo, though, still believed Islamophobia could carry him to victory. He told the New York Times on Wednesday that his ads “didn’t so much appeal to bigotry against Muslims as kind of counted on it.”

Just about everyone, therefore, was stunned on Tuesday evening when Smith emerged seemingly out of nowhere to defeat Hassan by 17 points, with Lemmo taking a distant third place.

The improbable new nominee, whom Politico notes is the first person to score a primary win against a Trump-backed congressional candidate this cycle, told the site the following morning he would return to the campaign trail.

He soon made an appearance at a GOP unity rally alongside luminaries like Mike Rogers, the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate. Smith, though, had little to say during his first moments in the spotlight.

“I’m Tom Smith. I’m running for the 8th congressional district to unseat Communist comrade Rivet, and I’ll need your help to do it,” he told his audience. Gongwer Michigan’s Liz Nass, who attended the event, describes these two sentences as Smith’s “full remarks.”

The NRCC, for its part, put out a statement predicting voters would reject McDonald Rivet, who won her first term 51-45 two years ago, in favor of “commonsense conservative Thomas Smith.” But it remains to be seen if the committee will devote serious resources to go after the congresswoman, who had over $4 million banked in mid-July, at a time when far more serious campaign operations need the support.

It’s also an open question as to what other major groups will do now that Smith is the Republican standard-bearer.

This spring, the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC reserved $4.2 million in ad reservations in Flint to aid McDonald Rivet, while the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund booked $2.5 million to attack her. Ad reservations, though, can be scaled back or canceled if the parties decide the race is no longer competitive—something both sides may well do here.

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The Downballot Podcast

The pro-pipe bomb Republican running for secretary of state

Once again, Republicans are fielding an array of election deniers who nevertheless want to oversee their state’s elections, though this year’s crop might just take the cake. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, Chelsey Wininger, the executive director of the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State, walks us through every competitive race her shop is focused on—including the showdown in Arizona, where the GOP nominee wants to repeal the state’s ban on pipe bombs. And no, we’re not kidding.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap all of this week’s high-profile primaries, including Michigan’s Democratic Senate battle, an extraordinary GOP botch in a swingy House district, and some very good news for an endangered Democrat in Washington state. They wrap up with the latest on two scandal-plagued House Republicans, including one who just bailed on his bid for reelection and another whom fellow Republicans would like to see vamoose as well.

Election Recaps

MI-Sen

Just before 10 AM ET on Wednesday morning, the Associated Press called Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary for former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed, prompting Democrats across the state and country to rally behind his candidacy.

They included Rep. Haley Stevens, who issued a statement congratulating her opponent after losing by a narrower-than-expected 48.5 to 47.5 margin.

“I want to congratulate Abdul El-Sayed on winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate,” Stevens said. “He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election.”

MI-13

The AP called the Democratic primary for Michigan’s 13th District for state Rep. Donavan McKinney on Wednesday morning, making Rep. Shri Thanedar the sixth House Democrat to lose a bid for renomination this year.

McKinney defeated Thanedar by a 52-48 margin and will be the overwhelming favorite to win this safely blue constituency in the fall. A victory in November would make McKinney the first Black person to represent Detroit, the largest Black-majority city in America, since Thanedar’s predecessor, former Democratic Rep. Brenda Lawrence, left office in 2023.

Senate

MT-Sen

After Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar reportedly failed to reach an agreement for one of them to withdraw from Montana’s Senate race in recent meetings between the two candidates, a group supporting Bodnar is now running ads attacking Bankhead.

A new spot from the Montana Freedom Fund features clips of Bankhead offering up a series of comments, including, “So if you’re poor right now, it’s because you decided you wanted to be poor.” “You know, I voted for John McCain,” and “I personally would not get an abortion.”

A narrator also accuses her of having been a member of “a far-right church that’s against choice and gay marriage” and says she “promoted antisemitic rapper Yeezy over Clinton.” It adds that she “told the Washington Post she doesn’t care if her campaign helps Republicans,” referencing a recent interview she did with the paper.

Candidates have until Monday to remove their names from the November ballot.

NE-Sen

Former union official Mike Marvin, who won the Legal Marijuana Now Party’s Senate primary in May, did not file paperwork to remove his name from the November ballot ahead of Monday’s deadline as many Nebraska political observers thought he might.

Others in the small party had accused Marvin of being a “plant” whose goal was to drop out to benefit independent Dan Osborn, a charge Marvin always denied. Now he’ll appear alongside independent Dan Osborn and Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts, though two new parties that Democrats have accused of trying to serve as spoilers could also potentially qualify candidates.

SC-Sen

A super PAC that has spent $1 million on positive ads and mailers boosting Sen. Darline Graham has pivoted to attacking one of her opponents, Rep. Russell Fry, ahead of next week’s Republican primary.

A new spot from Security is Strength blasts the congressman for “voting for increasing the gas tax by 70 percent and a nearly $1 billion taxpayer-funded bailout,” but it reserves special scorn for the possibility that a Fry victory in the Senate race could leave his House seat vacant at the start of next year.

“His empty seat could hand AOC and the woke liberals in DC power,” warns the narrator. Republican leaders in South Carolina’s legislature have suggested they might seek to change the law to mitigate this potential problem but have not yet taken any action.

House

CA-14

Supporters of Melissa Hernandez are spending heavily on her behalf ahead of her Aug. 18 runoff against fellow Democrat Aisha Wahab in the special election for California’s vacant 14th District.

Bold America, a super PAC affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has so far put almost $1.5 million into the race, both for ads supporting Hernandez, the president of the board of Bay Area Rapid Transit, and attacking Wahab, a state senator.

AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project, also just jumped in with another $1.2 million in advertising. In all, Hernandez has gotten more than $3 million in outside help while Wahab has received just under $275,000 in third-party support.

But Hernandez has a very steep hill to climb. In the first round of voting on June 16, Wahab led 43-17, though Hernandez later received the endorsement of the third-place Democrat, businesswoman Rakhi Israni, who took 13%. Wahab and Hernandez will also face off in the November general election for a full term.

FL-07

A new poll shows scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills in danger of losing renomination on Aug. 18, but he’s still ahead by double digits as Republican primary voters have yet to consolidate behind a single alternative.

St. Pete Polls’ new survey for Florida Politics, which is the first of the contest, shows Mills winning just 30% of GOP voters in the 7th District in Central Florida. That’s a weak share for any incumbent, and especially so for a Republican backed by Donald Trump.

But Mills, who, among many other things, has been accused of abusing two different women and is reportedly under investigation by the Department of Justice for an undisclosed matter, only needs to win a plurality of the vote in the four-person primary. Currently, at least, St. Pete has him in first.

Ryan Elijah, a former TV anchor with Orlando’s Fox affiliate, is well behind with 14%. Two underfunded contenders, real estate agent Sarah Ulrich and frequent candidate Michael Don Johnson, take 8% and 7%, respectively. But 41% of respondents are undecided in this poll, a greater proportion than say they’re supporting Mills.

Two of Mills’ colleagues in the Sunshine State’s House delegation are taking action to encourage Republicans who are tired of the incumbent to consolidate behind Elijah.

“We need leaders in Congress who serve with integrity, energy, and an unwavering commitment to the people who sent them there,” Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos wrote Wednesday in a joint statement. “Ryan Elijah is that leader.”

Democrats, by contrast, would prefer GOP voters to listen to MAGA’s master and renominate the damaged Mills. Such an outcome would give them a bigger opening to flip the 7th District, a constituency Trump carried by a 56-43 spread in 2024.

One powerful Democratic group is ready to move if Republicans pick Mills again. This spring, the House Majority PAC booked close to $4 million in the Orlando media market, which could be used on this race.

Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff, has decisively outraised Mills, and he has the DCCC’s support going into the primary. Dalton, though, still needs to get past former Rep. Alan Grayson, who has waged numerous failed campaigns since his last victory in 2014, and Navy veteran Marialana Kinter.

NC-11

Local GOP leaders will convene Monday to begin the process of selecting a replacement for scandal-tarred Rep. Chuck Edwards, who dropped his bid for reelection in the wee hours on Wednesday morning. The choice will be made by the party’s executive committee in North Carolina’s 11th District.

Jason Simmons, who chairs the state GOP, said in a statement that Republicans were “prepared to move through this process quickly and efficiently,” though he didn’t indicate how long he anticipated it would take.

The new nominee will face Democrat Jamie Ager, who finished June with over $2 million banked in his campaign to flip this constituency in the western part of the state.

Ager was already waging a strong effort to flip the 11th District, which Donald Trump carried 54-45 in 2024, even before the House Ethics Committee began investigating allegations that the congressman had sexually harassed his aides. The seat is likely to remain a battleground following the departure of Edwards, whom the panel said Monday should be censured.

Ballot Measures

CO Ballot

A longshot conservative effort to repeal a constitutional amendment ensuring the right to an abortion will not appear on the ballot after proponents failed to submit signatures ahead of Monday’s deadline.

Two years ago, Coloradans voted 62-38 to place language into the constitution that guarantees abortion rights, as well as repeal a 40-year-old amendment that prohibited the state from using public funds to pay for abortions.

As recently as last week, organizers said they were still collecting signatures for their amendment to excise that language and said they were “so close” to their goal. However, the secretary of state’s website lists the proposal as “expired,” meaning signatures were not filed.

MO Ballot

At the same Tuesday press conference where he announced that he would not allow a referendum to repeal Missouri’s new congressional map to appear on the November ballot, Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins also refused to certify a separate proposal that would sharply restrict the legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-backed ballot initiatives. Advocates said they would challenge Hoskins’ determination in court.

Their plan, spearheaded by a group called Respect Missouri Voters, would amend the state constitution to make the ability to bring initiatives and referendums a “fundamental right” and bar lawmakers from weakening either of these powers.

It would further prevent the legislature from repealing or modifying laws passed by initiative, or repassing laws rejected via referendum, unless a four-fifths supermajority in both chambers agrees.

In addition, it would enshrine the current requirements for the signatures necessary to place a measure on the ballot and would also affirm that only a simple statewide majority is required to approve an initiative or referendum. Lastly, it would allow the courts to rewrite misleading summary statements drafted by elected officials.

Republicans in Missouri have long sought to tamper with the initiative process to make proposals they dislike harder if not impossible to enact, and they’ve sometimes been successful. But their most recent effort went down in flames earlier this week, as voters rejected an amendment that would have required initiatives to win a majority in all eight congressional districts by an eye-popping 80-20 margin.

Reformers, though, are wary of future GOP attempts to clamp down on direct democracy, prompting a bipartisan effort to place Respect Missouri Voters’ plan on the ballot. (Prominent backers include former Republican Sen. John Danforth and former Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander.)

Hoskins, though, said that the proposal violates the state constitution’s prohibition on amendments that address more than a single subject. In a statement, Respect Missouri Voters rejected that contention, saying its plan “is limited to one subject and one article.” The group also said it “intend[s] to take every necessary legal action to ensure the people of Missouri will be heard.”

Poll Pile

• NV-Gov: The Tarrance Group for the Republican Governors Association and Better Nevada PAC:

  • Joe Lombardo (R-inc): 50, Aaron Ford (D): 43.

• FL-25 (R): 1892 Polling for Scott Singer:

  • Singer: 21, Dan Franzese: 14, George Moraitis: 13, Joe Kaufman: 7, Raven Harrison: 3.

• IN-05: Impact Research for J.D. Ford:

  • Victoria Spartz (R-inc): 48, Ford (D): 46.

• SC-07: Blueprint Polling for John Vincent:

  • Russell Fry (R-inc): 41, Vincent (D): 37.

Editor’s note: In the previous Digest, we incorrectly stated that Michigan Republican Amir Hassan is Muslim. Hassan has said he was raised Christian and later converted to Islam but told the Midland Daily News he’d “rededicated myself to Christ” in April.

We also incorrectly stated the Kansas City Chiefs are moving to Missouri from Kansas. The team is currently based in Missouri and relocating to Kansas.

In addition, we incorrectly stated the date for a potential Republican primary runoff in South Carolina. That contest would take place on Aug. 25, not Aug. 28.