Morning Digest: At long last, Michigan is holding a pivotal election for control of its Senate

A seat vacant for 16 months will determine whether Democrats retain their narrow majority

Democrat Chedrick Greene (far left) campaigning with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (far right). (Credit: Chedrick Greene Facebook)

Leading Off

Special Elections

Democrat Chedrick Greene and Republican Jason Tunney are finally facing off on Tuesday in a special election that will determine whether Democrats maintain their slim majority in the Michigan Senate—or if Republicans can force a tie that could bring the chamber to a standstill.

But while the stakes are high in the race to represent the 35th Senate District, which Kamala Harris, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried by a tight 50-49 spread in 2024, Democrats enjoy a huge spending advantage.

The Washington Post, citing data from AdImpact, reported last week that Greene and his allies have spent $1.6 million on advertising, compared to only $300,000 for Tenney’s side.

Republicans, however, are still hoping to overcome that gulf and flip this competitive district, which is located at the crook between the state’s Thumb and the rest of its “mitten.” Tenney has received help from former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP’s presumptive nominee for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, and Rep. John James, the one-time frontrunner in the August primary for governor.

Greene, likewise, is getting aid from some of his party’s biggest names. He’s appeared with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the likely Democratic nominee in the race to succeed the termed-out governor.

If Greene, a fire captain in the city of Saginaw, prevails on Tuesday, Democrats will regain the 20-18 edge they first won in 2022. That advantage, though, got whittled down by a seat in January of last year, when Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet stepped down after winning a 2024 bid for Congress.

Following McDonald Rivet’s victory, it looked like a bare-knuckled race to replace her would soon unfold, but that’s not what happened. Instead, it was only just before Labor Day—and in the face of legal action—that Whitmer finally scheduled the contest for the following spring, a delay she never publicly explained.

The governor, though, likely feared that Republicans could flip the 35th District and deadlock the Senate at 19 apiece. While Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would still be able to break ties in this scenario, experts believe that a single Republican senator could thwart him by abstaining—a tactic that would prevent Democrats from either obtaining the requisite majority needed to pass a bill or creating a tie for Gilchrist to break.

Democrats have managed to avoid this problem over the last 16 months because, with the 35th District vacant, a majority is defined as 19 out of 37 sitting senators. The math would change, though, if Tenney prevails on Tuesday and restores the full membership to 38.

The Democrats’ strong overperformances in special elections across the country, however, give Greene reason to feel optimistic about his prospects.

He cleared his first hurdle in early February when he decisively won the Democratic primary despite an effort by a mysterious GOP-backed group to meddle in the race. That outfit, with the misleading name ProgressiveMI, spent six figures to boost state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, apparently in the belief that her liberal views would make her more vulnerable in the general election.

Tenney won the GOP’s nomination that same night, but his already tough task got even tougher a few weeks later when gas prices spiked as a result of Donald Trump’s war with Iran. The Detroit News asked Tenney during the final days of the campaign whether high costs at the pump were harming his prospects, to which he responded, “I don’t think it helps.”

Greene and Tunney will almost certainly face off again six months from now in the campaign for a full four-year term. Greene is unopposed in the August primary, while Tunney faces only a minor candidate who earned little support in the special election primary.

That second bout will take place on the same night when control of the entire state government will be up for grabs. Every seat in the Senate and House, where Republicans are defending the small majority they won in 2024, will be on the ballot, as will the state’s governorship.

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Primary season finally gets back underway tonight—and the next two months will be extremely busy! In May and June, fully 26 states will hold their primaries, while another half dozen will also host runoffs.

It’s a major marathon, so to make sure you can stay on top of it all, we encourage you to bookmark our 2026 election calendar, which includes dates for every candidate filing deadline, primary, and runoff.

And if you appreciate our commitment to producing clean, easy-to-understand, and accurate resources like this one, then we hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription.

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How Dems can fight back, post-VRA

Redistricting Roundup

FL Redistricting

A civil rights organization and a group of voters filed a lawsuit in state court challenging Florida’s new Republican-drawn congressional map on Monday, arguing that the redrawn districts violate amendments to the state Constitution that prohibit partisan gerrymandering.

The suit was brought by the Elias Law Group, one of the most prominent Democratic election law firms, and is backed by the National Redistricting Foundation, an arm of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

As the new map was racing through the legislature last week, a DeSantis attorney argued to lawmakers that they should ignore the ban on gerrymandering because the state’s conservative Supreme Court suggested last year that it might invalidate those amendments.

LA Redistricting

The Supreme Court on Monday granted a request by Louisiana Republicans to immediately return the Callais case to a lower court, a move that would speed up the process for the GOP to impose a new map dismantling one or both of the state’s majority-Black congressional districts in time for the 2026 elections.

In a concurring opinion co-signed by Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, Justice Samuel Alito complained that a dissent written by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson “would require that the 2026 congressional elections in Louisiana be held under a map that has been held to be unconstitutional.”

However, the Supreme Court has frequently required that elections be held under illegal maps, regularly concluding that it’s too close to an election for the courts to intervene.

Jackson took note of this hypocrisy, writing, “There is also the so-called Purcell principle, which we invoked only five months ago to chide a federal district court for ‘improperly insert[ing] itself into an active primary campaign.’”

In the case Jackson invoked, the Supreme Court blocked a ruling by a district court forbidding Texas from using its new congressional map in part because the lower court had acted “on the eve of an election.”

In that situation, though, the district court issued its decision 15 weeks before Texas’ primaries, and well before any votes had been cast. By contrast, the Supreme Court handed down its Callais decision just 17 days before Louisiana’s House primaries, which Republican Gov. Jeff Landry has said are now canceled.

SC Redistricting

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster tells the Post and Courier that he doesn’t plan to call a special session of the legislature so that Republicans can target the state’s only majority-Black congressional district, despite saying on Friday that “it would be appropriate” for lawmakers to review the map.

Only the governor can convene a special session, but members of the state’s Freedom Caucus say they plan to push for a vote before lawmakers adjourn their regular session next week that would allow the legislature to reconvene on its own. Such a vote, however, would require the backing of two-thirds of both chambers to succeed, and it’s not clear whether hardliners can muster that level of support.

Governors

PA-Gov, PA-07

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is denying claims by a House candidate he supports that he once sought to help a Republican who’s now trying to stop him from winning a second term as governor this fall.

The unexpected remarks came from Bob Brooks, the president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, who is running for the Democratic nomination in the state’s 7th Congressional District.

In 2024, the PPFA endorsed Republican Stacy Garrity’s bid for state treasurer while backing Democrats in other statewide races. According to Axios, which first reported the story, Brooks was asked why his union had done so when he addressed a group of college Democrats last week.

In audio obtained by the publication, Brooks explained the decision by saying that the Democrats’ nominee for treasurer, Erin McClelland, “came out hard about something on Josh Shapiro, and really the Democratic Party as a whole turned on Erin McClelland.

“And he said, ‘I would like you guys to endorse Stacey Garrity,’” Brooks continued. “So we went with Stacey Garrity.”

In the primary, McClelland, a small business owner, defeated the establishment-backed candidate, state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro, in a 54-46 upset. And after Joe Biden abandoned his bid for a second term, McClelland publicly called on Kamala Harris not to tap Shapiro as her running mate.

“I want a VP pick that’s secure enough to be second under a woman, is content to be VP & won’t undermine the President to maneuver his own election & doesn’t sweep sexual harassment under the rug,” she wrote in a since-deleted tweet.

In the general election, Shapiro pointedly did not endorse McClelland, who went on to lose to Garrity 52-46.

In a statement to Axios, a Shapiro spokesperson called Brooks’ remarks “inaccurate” and said, “The governor did not ask Bob Brooks to make any endorsements in that race — and the only races he is focused on are winning up and down the ballot this November.”

Brooks also tried to walk back his own statements, telling Axios, “I misspoke and made an inaccurate comment,” adding, “The governor did not ask my union to make any endorsements.”

Shapiro now faces Garrity, the only candidate seeking the Republican nod, in November’s race for governor. Brooks, meanwhile, is squaring off against three other Democrats for the right to take on vulnerable GOP Rep. Ryan McKenzie.

In that race, Brooks is the establishment favorite. Shapiro endorsed him last year, and on Monday, he earned the support of the DCCC, which added him to its Red to Blue program for top candidates.

House

Florida

Florida’s new congressional map, which Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law on Monday, has sparked new interest—and a round of musical chairs—from a variety of candidates. Below we sum up all the latest developments, district by district.

• FL-11: Florida Politics says that former state Rep. Jason Fischer, who is now chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Randy Fine, is considering entering the GOP primary.

• FL-14, FL-16: Republican Eddie Speir, the wealthy founder of a Christian charter school, launched a bid for the open 16th District in February but now says he’s considering hopping over to the revamped 14th District. The latter is held by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, who’s said she’s running again despite the GOP making her district considerably redder.

• FL-16: Former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner has jumped into the race for the conservative 16th District, making him the first notable Democrat to run.

• FL-22, FL-19, FL-25: Florida Politics reports that “sources on other campaigns” think former New York Rep. Chris Collins could switch from the open 19th District, where there’s a crowded Republican primary, to the revamped 22nd District, where so far no incumbents are running. Collins himself has yet to say anything. Meanwhile, wealthy crypto businessman Michael Carbonara has switched from the 25th to the 22nd.

• FL-25: Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz tells Politico that he hasn’t made a “final decision” about whether to seek reelection but says that if he does so, he’d run in the redrawn 25th District. Around half of that district is made up of Moskowitz’s current constituents.

• FL-26: Attorney Nicole Locklin, who’d already reported raising money for a bid against Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, announced on Monday that she’d run for the overhauled 26th District. In their quest to make nearby districts redder, Republicans made the 26th considerably bluer, though Trump would still have won it handily in 2024.

The Downballot recently cataloged all the major changes the GOP’s new map makes, including its dismantling of the heavily Latino 9th District, which had previously been protected by the Voting Rights Act.

Morning Digest: Florida GOP passes new House map, turbocharged by VRA's demise

MA-06

Joe Biden has endorsed Democrat Dan Koh, who served as an aide to the former president when he was in the White House, in the crowded primary for Massachusetts’ open 6th District.

PA-01

An official GOP political committee that’s received heavy funding from Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick appears to be meddling in the May 19 Democratic primary that will determine who faces the congressman in November.

As PoliticsPA explains, an outfit called the Republican Federal Committee of Pennsylvania has sent out mailers attacking Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, claiming he “calls himself a king.” The flipside features an image of protesters holding posters saying “Say No to Kings” and “Say No to Robert Harvie,” as though Harvie was the target of a No Kings rally.

That imagery and message seem designed to drive a wedge between Harvie and Democratic voters, who’ve turned out in record numbers for No Kings protests—directed, of course, at Donald Trump. A spokesperson for Fitzpatrick, though, insisted to PoliticsPA that the effort is aimed at “select targeted voters in ALL parties, to include Republicans, Democrats and Independents (NOT just Democrats).”

Harvie, who just earned the backing of the DCCC, is one of the strongest candidates Democrats have ever recruited to take on Fitzpatrick. Republicans would therefore likely prefer to face his underfunded primary rival, mathematician Lucia Simonelli.

The Republican Federal Committee has not yet reported how much it’s spending on these mailers, but Fitzpatrick’s campaign has been its top donor this cycle, contributing $350,000 so far.

DCCC

The DCCC added eight more Democrats to its Red to Blue program highlighting top candidates on Monday:

• AZ-01: Marlene Galan-Woods

• CA-22: Jasmeet Bains

• CO-05: Jessica Killin

• ME-02: Joe Baldacci

• PA-01: Bob Harvie

• PA-07: Bob Brooks

• TX-15: Bobby Pulido

• TX-35: Johnny Garcia

Pulido, who won his primary in March, is the sole member of this group who is already his party’s nominee. Of the remaining seven, Killin and Harvie have only underfunded intraparty opponents in the primaries in their respective races, while the rest face credible opposition.

This is the DCCC’s second batch of Red to Blue candidates this cycle; a first, featuring a dozen hopefuls, was rolled out in February.

Ethics

Last month, the House Ethics Committee issued an unusual statement saying that it had investigated 20 members for alleged sexual misconduct over the last decade but named only 15 targets. It now appears that media outlets have identified three of the five lawmakers whose names were not previously known.

In late April, NOTUS reported that in 2023, the committee had looked into accusations that Democratic Rep. Alma Adams of North Carolina had had an “inappropriate relationship” with a top staffer, Sandra Brown.

The panel did not release any findings, and an Adams spokesperson told NOTUS that the committee “closed the matter after finding no violation of any House Rules and, most importantly, no inappropriate or improper relationship.”

A week later, CNN published a story about another member of North Carolina’s delegation, Republican Chuck Edwards, reporting that he was under investigation for alleged sexual harassment. NOTUS offered further details the following day, saying that Edwards allegedly had an affair with a one-time aide.

Then on Monday, NOTUS reported that the Office of Congressional Ethics had looked into whether Democratic Rep. Jim Costa of California had “made inappropriate advances to two congressional interns” in 2023. The OCE (now known as the Office of Congressional Conduct) and the Ethics Committee both ultimately voted to dismiss the matter.

The Edwards investigation, however, remains ongoing. Also on Monday, Axios, which first revealed the inquiry’s existence but not its nature, reported that the congressman had sent a handwritten letter to a young female staffer saying she had “written a complex chapter in my heart that I will never stop reading.”

The 65-year-old Edwards, who is married, “did not respond to multiple attempts to seek comment,” the publication said. He faces a stiff challenge in November from Democrat Jamie Ager.

Poll Pile

• GA-Sen (R): Cygnal for the Democracy Defense Project:

  • Mike Collins: 30, Derek Dooley: 12, Buddy Carter: 11, other candidates 1% or less, undecided: 45%.

  • The Democracy Defense Project is a bipartisan group that describes its mission as “defend[ing] the transparency, safety, security, and validity of U.S. elections.”

• MN-Sen (D): Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association (pro-Peggy Flanagan):

  • Peggy Flanagan: 44, Angie Craig: 33.

    • Jan.: 40-28 Flanagan.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Evitarus for the California Democratic Party:

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 18, Steve Hilton (R): 18, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Tom Steyer (D): 12, Katie Porter (D): 8, Matt Mahan (D): 7, other candidates 2% or less.

    • Mid-April: Hilton (R): 16, Bianco (R): 14, Becerra (D): 13, Steyer (D): 13, Porter (D): 10, Mahan (D): 5.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): SurveyUSA for KGTV and the San Diego Union-Tribune:

  • Hilton (R): 20, Steyer (D): 18, Bianco (R): 12, Becerra (D): 10, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 7, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 5, other candidates 2% or less.

    • Early April: Steyer (D): 21, Hilton (R): 18, Eric Swalwell (D): 9, Porter (D): 8, Bianco (R): 8, Villaraigosa (D): 5, Becerra (D): 4, Betty Yee (D): 4, Mahan (D): 4.

• FL-Gov (R): Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Byron Donalds:

  • Byron Donalds: 54, James Fishback: 9, Jay Collins: 7, Paul Renner: 2.

    • Jan.: Donalds: 45, Collins: 6, Fishback: 4, Renner: 3.

• GA-Gov (D): The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

  • Keisha Lance Bottoms: 39, Michael Thurmond: 10, Jason Esteves: 8, Geoff Duncan: 7, other candidates 1% or less, undecided: 35.

    • Oct.: Keisha Lance Bottoms: 40, Thurmond: 11, Duncan: 5, Esteves: 3.

• GA-Gov (R): Cygnal for the Democracy Defense Project:

  • Rick Jackson: 27, Burt Jones: 24, Brad Raffensperger: 12, Chris Carr: 6, Clark Dean: 1, undecided: 30.

• GA-Gov (R): Remington Research Group:

  • Jackson: 29, Jones: 28, Raffensperger: 14, Carr: 5, undecided: 24.

  • The pollster says this “survey was conducted independent of any campaign.”

• NM-Gov (R): Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal:

  • Gregg Hull: 30, Doug Turner: 21, Duke Rodriguez: 9, undecided: 40.

Correction: This piece incorrectly identified the district that Jason Fischer is reportedly interested in. Fischer is reportedly considering running for Florida’s 11th District, not the 16th.