Pretty much that- she just feared a flip (she does a lot of fearing - so much so that she's one of the only Democratic governors willing to suck up to Trump). A flip was very much not the case.
With a 19-18 edge there's not much to be gained by an extra seat and plenty to be lost in the other side getting an extra seat, so the calculation was probably just that preserving the status quo was fine even if the flip risk was tiny.
I briefly mentioned this above, but thanks for drawing attention to the fact that this seat is marginal. Maybe with a further-right candidate as the nominee, the district could be flipped.
Should be, but to be honest, a Covid czar makes me worry. People don't look back charitably at Covid policy. But if Vivek can be hung with data centers, that might cure the Covid issue.
To be fair, the current seat is a pretty tough lift at Trump+18. If Ogles still has a close race in November under the new lines redistricting could very well have been decisive.
Since there is no scandal around the Democrat, the only way he loses is some super strange turnout which is HIGHLY unlikely given every thing we now on turnout and over performances this year.
The GOP lost many winnable Senate seats during their waves to candidates who didn't have scandals per se, but were poor fits for their states/districts. Stabenow only won by 6% in her last re-election during a blue wave. A too-liberal nominee could certainly lose the MI Senate seat, especially against a non-controversial Republican.
This is an "orphan election" this year: no gubernatorial or Senate race on the ballot, SoS will be the top of the ticket. I think we get these once a decade. Turnout is going to be key.
well said, evidently i was still a little bitter about evan not running for reelection in 2010, dont think he could have beat coats but I remember being in high school that election night and being so pissed and just picking scapegoats, like evan who would be an upgrade over todd young.
I voted, but in my county, few Democrats are opposing Republicans, and only one race was contested (Congressional district). Yes, Secretary of State is contested, but there were only five of the eleven delegates (10 total to be elected) who I thought were likely to vote for Beau Bayh at the convention, and all but one of those five were an educated guess.
I think that Republican turnout is running about 2-1, but there are more contested primary races on their side, especially the sheriff and prosecutor races, for which Democrats did not field candidates.
from a place where party leaders' opinions matter more than some places, I thought party insiders would do all they could to get a bayh over the finish line? is that naivete? I have been trying to understand the rules of indiana conventions, and they seem to bear no resemblance to the nj variety
"A Bayh" hasn't been elected statewide since 2004, I'm not sure delegates hold as much reverence for them as you're suggesting. Obviously a name doesn't hurt, though.
I had gotten the impression that in one of the counties the dem did overperform - it just so happened that this was the only part of the district with any other concurrent local elections.
Yes, but that's been in true in many races across the country where we nonetheless overperformed. What made this one special? Only thing I can think of was that the GOP nominee was especially well-known and well-liked..?
Embarrassingly for the Republican candidate, they didn't even break 40% and there's a good chance they may end up losing by 20%. That's a blowout.
This was the district where Whitmer delayed the special, right? Did we ever found out why or is the assumption was she feared it would flip?
Pretty much that- she just feared a flip (she does a lot of fearing - so much so that she's one of the only Democratic governors willing to suck up to Trump). A flip was very much not the case.
In fact, he may win by around 20 percent.
With a 19-18 edge there's not much to be gained by an extra seat and plenty to be lost in the other side getting an extra seat, so the calculation was probably just that preserving the status quo was fine even if the flip risk was tiny.
I briefly mentioned this above, but thanks for drawing attention to the fact that this seat is marginal. Maybe with a further-right candidate as the nominee, the district could be flipped.
The Zohran Tactic.
I think Soto loses by a larger margin than Tilt, but I could be wrong.
Vivek won the OH GOP primary for governor.
He is so screwed in November.
I thought Putsch's racism would put up a fight, but Ramaswamy leads 86-14.
Should be, but to be honest, a Covid czar makes me worry. People don't look back charitably at Covid policy. But if Vivek can be hung with data centers, that might cure the Covid issue.
I really hope this bodes well for the SCOGA elections since they’re nonpartisan in name only.
At this point, better unseat Ogles.
Unfortunately, the same guy has confirmed Ogles will likely be getting shored up in redistricting in addition to them taking out Cohen.
https://x.com/PhilNvestigates/status/2051816843896029631
Ahhh. I have not paid attention enough to the redistricting information. Thanks for the heads up.
If only Democrats could really succeed in TN.
To be fair, the current seat is a pretty tough lift at Trump+18. If Ogles still has a close race in November under the new lines redistricting could very well have been decisive.
She is Hispanic - from a Cuban immigrant family. Shah had his chance.
Amish Shah leads in the primary poll thanks to name recognition: he was the seat's nominee last year!
I think ever since Eric Swalwell left the gubernatorial race, that’s where Bianco lost any momentum he ever had.
No question Steve Hilton has the best potential out of the two to advance in the general election.
When describing sexual harassment, please be careful with your adjectives.
It is disgusting that a candidate such as that of Fishback is polling as high as 9 points.
5 percent of Floridians being antisemitic white supremacists is not too bad.
5 percent of Floridians is almost 1.2 million people.
I think that MI state Senate seat will remain safe.
Since there is no scandal around the Democrat, the only way he loses is some super strange turnout which is HIGHLY unlikely given every thing we now on turnout and over performances this year.
The GOP lost many winnable Senate seats during their waves to candidates who didn't have scandals per se, but were poor fits for their states/districts. Stabenow only won by 6% in her last re-election during a blue wave. A too-liberal nominee could certainly lose the MI Senate seat, especially against a non-controversial Republican.
State senate special election, not US Senate.
The Indiana primary:
https://www.wlfi.com/news/how-indiana-chooses-its-secretary-of-state-candidates-it-s-not-what-you-think/article_d246d52a-f4a1-4395-bd01-079ff3a97d49.html
This is an "orphan election" this year: no gubernatorial or Senate race on the ballot, SoS will be the top of the ticket. I think we get these once a decade. Turnout is going to be key.
I would love to see Diego Morales disappear forever, unlikely as it is.
didn't love evan, hoping beau is more like his grandpa than dad
Even if Beau is well to the right of his father he'd be three times as good as MAGA Morales.
Amen
well said, evidently i was still a little bitter about evan not running for reelection in 2010, dont think he could have beat coats but I remember being in high school that election night and being so pissed and just picking scapegoats, like evan who would be an upgrade over todd young.
I worked for Evan in 2016 and spent time with Susan and the boys. I really like Beau, and I think he is more like his grandfather than his father.
.... and just donated to young beau!
Every twelve years, no?
Sounds right, I believe the last one was 2014.
I voted, but in my county, few Democrats are opposing Republicans, and only one race was contested (Congressional district). Yes, Secretary of State is contested, but there were only five of the eleven delegates (10 total to be elected) who I thought were likely to vote for Beau Bayh at the convention, and all but one of those five were an educated guess.
I think that Republican turnout is running about 2-1, but there are more contested primary races on their side, especially the sheriff and prosecutor races, for which Democrats did not field candidates.
That really worries me about his chances at the convention. Yikes.
from a place where party leaders' opinions matter more than some places, I thought party insiders would do all they could to get a bayh over the finish line? is that naivete? I have been trying to understand the rules of indiana conventions, and they seem to bear no resemblance to the nj variety
"A Bayh" hasn't been elected statewide since 2004, I'm not sure delegates hold as much reverence for them as you're suggesting. Obviously a name doesn't hurt, though.
No mention of a recent underperformance for a TX seat over the weekend? Anyone know what happened there ????
The seat was already very red to begin with, turnout was rough, and there wasn't much publicity
I had gotten the impression that in one of the counties the dem did overperform - it just so happened that this was the only part of the district with any other concurrent local elections.
Yes, but that's been in true in many races across the country where we nonetheless overperformed. What made this one special? Only thing I can think of was that the GOP nominee was especially well-known and well-liked..?
The GOP nominee was the district attorney for Montgomery County, whereas the Democrat was a complete unknown.
I saw a comment somewhere online that the Republican spent ~$250k to run up the score/avoid any embarassment in what was already a Trump +30 seat.
NY Gov Siena: Hochul 49 Blakeman 33
https://x.com/ronbrownstein/status/2051673041214804111?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
hard to imagine blakeman ends up getting paladino numbers