Morning Digest: Florida GOP passes new House map, turbocharged by VRA's demise

Republicans aim to target four Democrats, though they may fall short

Credit: Stephen Wolf/The Downballot

Leading Off

FL Redistricting

Florida Republicans on Wednesday afternoon passed a new congressional map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis that aims to unseat four Democratic incumbents—including one whose district had enjoyed the protection of the Voting Rights Act until the Supreme Court issued a ruling gutting the 60-year-old law earlier that same day.

While the VRA is now a virtual dead letter, DeSantis’ map very likely violates amendments to the Florida Constitution prohibiting partisan gerrymandering that voters approved in 2010. However, Republicans were apparently convinced by a DeSantis attorney who argued to lawmakers that they should ignore the ban on gerrymandering because the state’s conservative Supreme Court suggested last year that it might invalidate those amendments.

Florida’s map, which last elected 20 Republicans and just eight Democrats in 2024, was already heavily tilted toward the GOP, but now that advantage could grow even more extreme. However, Republicans declined to meaningfully shore up districts represented by vulnerable GOP incumbents, and in one case, they materially weakened a seat they already hold.

They may also not make all the gains they’re hoping for. In particular, the 2024 presidential results may represent a high-water mark for Florida Republicans. Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity, combined with a sharp U-turn among many Latino voters, could result in a political environment in November that’s more similar to election years when Democrats have been more competitive in the Sunshine State, such as 2020.

We’ve already seen hard evidence of this at the ballot box. In a dozen special elections since Trump returned to the White House, Florida Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris by an average of 15 points and Joe Biden by an average of 8 points. Democrat Eileen Higgins also turned in a similarly strong showing in winning the race for Miami mayor last year.

Below we discuss the major changes the new boundaries make to Democratic constituencies on a district-by-district basis, as well as the potential new opportunity it might open up. You can find interactive versions of both the new map and the old map on Dave’s Redistricting App.

FL-09: Darren Soto (D)

• Old map: 51-48 Harris (2024); 58-41 Biden (2020)

• New map: 58-41 Trump (2024); 53-46 Trump (2020)

Without even waiting for the Supreme Court to hand down its ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, Republicans began advancing plans to dismantle the prior version of the 9th District, an Orlando-area district that was home to a large Latino population.

Like Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, who first won office in 2016, many residents traced their roots to Puerto Rico. As such, the district had been shielded from tampering thanks to the VRA, but DeSantis’ map—which he published two days before the court’s Callais decision—did not hesitate to split it into four main pieces.

Previously, the 9th included all of Osceola County and a sizable chunk of Orange County just to the north. The revamped version, which now contains less than 60% of the residents of the old district, shifts to the south and east, shedding most of Orange County.

Instead, it takes on conservative turf from the 18th District, including Highlands, Glade, and Okeechobee counties, as well as more of Polk County, plus Indian River County from the 8th District.

Most importantly, it loses its predominantly Latino character and is now home to a white majority among its eligible voter population. Given its demographics and conservative lean, the district would be unlikely to elect a Hispanic Democrat like Soto, though the 2020 presidential results suggest such an outcome would not be impossible.

Should Soto choose to run again, though, a victory would be attributable to his strengths as a candidate and the GOP’s unpopularity. In no way would it vindicate the Supreme Court’s actions.

FL-14: Kathy Castor (D)

• Old map: 53-46 Harris (2024); 59-40 Biden (2020)

• New map: 55-44 Trump (2024); 51-48 Trump (2020)

Formerly a Democratic-leaning constituency centered on the urban cores of Tampa and St. Petersburg, the 14th District surrenders most of its bluest areas to its deep-red neighbors (including the 12th, 15th, and 16th districts). It now encompasses more conservative exurban areas of Hillsborough County that were previously in the 16th.

The makeover is an extreme one: Under a third of residents of the previous iteration of the 14th now live in the new version. Still, longtime Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor told Florida Politics she intends to seek reelection.

FL-22: Lois Frankel (D)

• Old map: 52-47 Harris (2024); 58-41 Biden (2020)

• New map: 55-44 Trump (2024); 51-48 Biden (2020)

Republicans did a number on South Florida—literally. Not only did they radically reshape the map, they renumbered it, too, making it even more complicated to sort through the fallout.

The transformation of the 22nd District, held by Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel, is breathtaking, with the new incarnation incorporating parts of eight different districts.

Once located along the coast in Palm Beach, the 22nd moves entirely inland, and only a scrap—just 13%—of its former population resides in the overhauled district. It now stretches all the way to the Gulf Coast across deep-red areas, including sparsely populated parts of the Everglades, that mostly come from the 26th District.

Most of the old 22nd, around 80% of it, winds up in the 23rd, represented by sophomore Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz. It also grabs some blue turf from the nearby 20th District, making the new-look 23rd more Democratic-friendly. It would have voted 56-43 for Harris, up from 51-49 in its prior version.

Given that she already serves the lion’s share of the 23rd, Frankel would likely run there and already hinted that she might, telling the Miami Herald, “The district number is not relevant.” However, at age 77, she could also opt to retire.

The 22nd is not a lost cause for Democrats, however, particularly since Biden would have carried it narrowly. The most likely incumbent to run there would be Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who currently represents just under a quarter of the district and is discussed further just below.

FL-25: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

• Old map: 52-47 Harris (2024); 60-40 Biden (2020)

• New map: 54-45 Trump (2024); 52-47 Biden (2020)

Once confined to Broward County and jutting inland, the new 25th District instead hugs the Atlantic coast from southern Palm Beach County down to Miami Beach. It pulls redder areas from the 23rd and 24th districts while shedding blue turf to the 26th.

Like the 22nd, though, the 25th would have gone for Biden, meaning Democrats could plausibly hold it. However, Wasserman Schultz, now in her 11th term, only represents 16% of the new district, compared to 46% for Moskowitz. That would likely give Moskowitz the inside track.

One important side-effect of the alterations to the 25th is that they substantially weaken the adjacent 26th District, held by GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. Republicans likely feel confident about his chances since the 26th would still have voted for Trump by a 59-40 margin, even though that’s considerably narrower than his 67-32 win under the old lines.

But the 2020 election tells a different story. Trump carried the district 59-41 under the previous map, but he would have prevailed by just a 50-49 spread in the new district. Three little-known Democrats are running against Diaz-Balart, but the district’s shift could inspire donors to take a second look—or encourage a new candidate to jump in, since the state’s filing deadline for House races is not until June 12.

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Yesterday, The Downballot published a special report immediately after the Supreme Court’s VRA ruling detailing exactly how we can expect Republicans to undermine the voting rights of Black and Latino Americans in Congress. You can find it right here:

With the VRA gutted, the GOP could target over a dozen Black and Latino House districts

To unlock the full story, you’ll need to be a paid subscriber. We hope you’ll consider upgrading if you haven’t already.

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The Downballot Podcast

How Dems can fight back, post-VRA

Wednesday was one of the darkest days ever for American democracy, as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act while pretending it was doing no such thing. But on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how Democrats can fight back, both by drawing new maps of their own and laying the groundwork for major SCOTUS reforms.

The Davids also talk with Eugene DePasquale, the chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, about why he’s bullish on the midterms. DePasquale tells us about much-improved Democratic fortunes in voter registration and highlights four critical congressional races in the Keystone State. He also explains how Democrats can retake full control of state government in November for the first time since the early 1990s.

Redistricting Roundup

LA Redistricting

Most of the focus on the Supreme Court’s Wednesday decision in Louisiana v. Callais stemmed from its gutting of the Voting Rights Act, but the ruling also struck down a majority-Black congressional district in Louisiana that Republicans enacted ahead of the 2024 elections.

Now, even though the state is set to hold primaries on May 16 and early voting starts on Saturday, the Washington Post reports that Republican Gov. Jeff Landry is planning to cancel those elections so that GOP lawmakers can first draw a new map.

That would allow the Republicans to dismantle not only the 6th District, which was at issue in Callais, but also the 2nd, the state’s other majority-Black district. Both are represented by Black Democrats, the former by Cleo Fields and the latter by Troy Carter.

A Landry spokesperson declined to comment to the Post, but the governor reportedly could act as soon as Friday. It’s not clear whether Landry intends to cancel primaries only for House races or for other contests as well, nor is it known when he might seek to reschedule the elections.

Any such cancellation would likely face legal challenges, though election law expert Rick Hasen told the Post that he thinks opponents would have to bring a case in state rather than federal court.

Governors

GA-Gov

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones is capitalizing on a major stumble in a recent debate by his chief rival in next month’s GOP primary for Georgia’s open governorship with a new ad highlighting the viral moment.

The spot features a clip of Jones asking wealthy healthcare executive Rick Jackson, “You don’t have any illegals working for you right now?” To that question, Jackson replied, “I don’t know.”

The ad then accuses Jackson of “lying to Georgians,” citing a New York Post article published just hours before the debate. The piece reported that the billionaire businessman had “failed to vet the citizenship status of workers at his own mansion,” according to court documents.

Polls show both Jackson and Jones advancing to a June runoff, though Jackson has consistently occupied the top slot. He also continues to lead in ad spending, with new data from AdImpact shared by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution showing just how dominant his edge has been.

To date, Jackson has spent $56 million, while a super PAC called Georgians for Integrity has chipped in another $20 million to attack Jones. Jones, who is also rich (though not nearly as rich as Jackson), has himself spent $26 million on the airwaves, while every other Republican is far behind.

As Jackson and Jones drive down available ad inventory—and drive up prices for what’s left—advertising on the Democratic side has been almost nonexistent. According to the AJC, the entire field has spent just $2.3 million so far.

House

CA-01

Agriculture consultant Audrey Denney is using her opening ad to argue that state Sen. Mike McGuire, a fellow Democrat who is the frontrunner to claim California’s redrawn 1st District, is an unacceptable choice for Democrats.

“Establishment politicians have failed to stop Trump,” Denney tells the audience. “In Congress, Mike McGuire will be one of them. I won’t.”

Denney continues by saying that her opponent “has been funded by PG&E, big drug companies, and health insurers, and worked with Republicans to lower taxes for corporations and protect insurance companies.”

The commercial, which Denney’s team tells The Downballot is part of a six-figure buy on streaming and digital platforms, comes with just over a month to go before June 2, when she and McGuire will face off in two different contests.

The state will hold its regularly scheduled top-two primary for the new 1st District as well as the special election to replace the late Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in the old—and much more conservative incarnation—of this constituency. GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, is also running in both races.

FL-11

Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini on Tuesday became the first notable Republican to launch a campaign to replace retiring Rep. Daniel Webster, whom Sabatini twice attempted to challenge for renomination.

Sabatini was elected to the state House in 2018 but quickly developed a reputation as a far-right troublemaker. In 2021, he announced that he would oppose Webster, a move that angered the congressman, who claimed that Sabatini had gone back on his word to run elsewhere.

Sabatini did wind up running elsewhere, though his relocated campaign for the open 7th District was met with determined opposition by his own party.

Kevin McCarthy’s allies aided a super PAC that ran ads targeting Sabatini, with one operative later telling the Washington Post that the lawmaker was a “legislative terrorist[] whose goal was fame.” Sabatini lost 38-24 to Cory Mills, who had not yet developed the scandal-plagued image he would later earn.

Sabatini soon launched another campaign against Webster, generating attention when he declared, “We need to extinguish the left.” However, he again bailed out abruptly to seek a seat on the Lake County Commission—less than an hour after Donald Trump endorsed the congressman two months before the primary. This time, though, there were no deep-pocketed super PACs seeking to keep him out of office.

Other Republicans are sure to take a look at running to replace Webster in the 11th District, a conservative constituency based in Central Florida. Politico mentions Lake County Sheriff Peyton Grinnell and state Sen. Keith Truenow as possible contenders, though neither appears to have publicly expressed interest in running.

IN-04

A new super PAC targeting Republicans who support a proposed immigration bill loathed by hardliners is going after Rep. Jim Baird ahead of next week’s primary for Indiana’s conservative 4th District.

Homeland PAC reports spending $200,000 on digital ads against Baird in an FEC filing first flagged by CNN’s Patrick Svitek. This expenditure represents by far the largest third-party spending in the nomination contest between Baird and state Rep. Craig Haggard.

The campaign has largely centered around questions about the 80-year-old incumbent’s age rather than his ideology. Haggard, who is in his 50s, recently told the Indiana Capital Chronicle, “I’m running because I think I can do a better job, have more energy and actually show up in the district … than what I see now.”

Baird, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement for a fifth term, has responded by arguing he has more energy than his younger opponent. The congressman, who criticized Haggard for skipping votes in the legislature, told the Chronicle, “Unlike my opponent, I balance time between Washington and the district every single week.”

Homeland PAC, though, isn’t happy with what Baird is doing in the nation’s capital. The congressman has co-sponsored the DIGNIDAD Act, a bipartisan bill that pairs heavier immigration enforcement with a program that would allow undocumented immigrants to obtain lawful immigration status.

“We’re not here to burn the party down,” Ryan Girdusky, the group’s cofounder, told Reuters. “It’s to challenge pro-amnesty Republicans in safe Republican seats and to defend Republicans in challenging seats or in swing districts that need support.”

OH-07

A super PAC heavily funded by the father of Republican Rep. Max Miller is meddling in next week’s Democratic primary for the right to take on the congressman in November.

Text messages from Jobs & Prosperity PAC ostensibly attack former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, who waged a disastrous campaign for governor in 2014, for being “too LIBERAL for Ohio.”

These messages, which were first flagged by Zeteo News, also argue that FitzGerald would try to thwart Donald Trump’s agenda—framing designed to make Democrats want to nominate FitzGerald. The PAC has also reported spending $25,000 on mailers.

FitzGerald faces Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker who has the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders and the state AFL-CIO, in Tuesday’s primary for Ohio’s 7th District. Poindexter has also benefited from over $400,000 in ads from Jobs and Democracy PAC, a group aligned with the AI sector.

This constituency in the Cleveland suburbs would have favored Donald Trump by a wide 55-44 spread, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s poor approval ratings will give them an opportunity. House Majority PAC, the largest pro-Democratic super PAC in House races, reserved over $1 million in the Cleveland media market last week, which could be used to target Miller.

And if Trump is a liability for Republicans this fall in districts as conservative as the 7th, Miller could have a particularly tough time separating himself from his party’s master. The congressman, who hails from a wealthy Cleveland family, was one of Trump’s favorite White House aides during his first term. An unnamed source even told Politico in 2021 that the two had “kind of a unique ‘bro’ relationship.”

Judges

WI Supreme Court

State Court of Appeals Judge Pedro Colon received an endorsement Wednesday from Justice-elect Chris Taylor, an announcement that came one day after he launched his campaign for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Taylor, a liberal who won a closely watched contest earlier this month, is the most prominent figure to take sides in the race between Colon and Clark County Circuit Court Judge Lyndsey Brunette, another progressive who kicked off a bid earlier this month.

Poll Pile

• NC-Sen: Opinion Diagnostics:

  • Roy Cooper: 50, Michael Whatley (R): 41.

  • Opinion Diagnostics is a Republican firm, but there is no word if this poll was conducted for a client.

• TX-Sen: YouGov/University of Texas:

  • James Talarico (D): 40, John Cornyn (R-inc): 33.

  • Talarico (D): 42, Ken Paxton (R): 34.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): EMC Research for CPCA Advocates (pro-Xavier Becerra):

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 21, Steve Hilton (R): 20, Tom Steyer (D): 17, Chad Bianco (R): 15, Matt Mahan (D): 8, Katie Porter (D): 8, other candidates 3% or less.

• GA-Gov (R): yes. every kid.:

  • Rick Jackson: 32, Burt Jones: 26, Brad Raffensperger: 12, Chris Carr: 10, Clark Dean: 1.

• TX-Gov: YouGov/UT:

  • Greg Abbott (R-inc): 44, Gina Hinojosa (D): 38. (Feb.: 45-35 Abbott.)

• AZ-06: Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America:

  • JoAnna Mendoza (D): 47, Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): 44.

  • Each of Ragnar’s polls was conducted last month.

• CA-11 (top-two primary): GQR for Public First Action (pro-Scott Wiener):

  • Scott Wiener (D): 44, Saikat Chakrabarti (D): 26, Connie Chan (D): 11, other candidates 2% or less.

• CO-03: Ragnar:

  • Jeff Hurd (R-inc): 46, Alex Kelloff (D): 41.

  • The release did not test Dwayne Romero, the other Democrat in the race.

• IA-03: Ragnar:

  • Zach Nunn (R-inc): 48, Sarah Trone Garriott (D): 42.

• KY-06 (D): Normington Petts for EMILYs List (pro-Cherlynn Stevenson):

  • Cherlynn Stevenson: 27, Zach Dembo: 13, Erin Petrey: 6, other candidates 4% or less, undecided: 45.

• MI-04: Ragnar:

  • Bill Huizenga (R-inc): 48, Sean McCann (D): 42.

• MI-10 (D): GSG for Christina Hines:

  • Christina Hines: 30, Eric Chung: 13, Tim Greimel: 7.

• MN-01: Ragnar:

  • Brad Finstad (R-inc): 52, Jake Johnson (D): 42.

• NC-10: Ragnar:

  • Pat Harrigan (R-inc): 52, Ashley Bell (D): 37.

• NC-14: Ragnar:

  • Tim Moore (R-inc): 48, LaKesha Womack (D): 40.

• VA-01: Ragnar:

  • Rob Wittman (R-inc): 46, Shannon Taylor (D): 42.

  • The poll tested the version of the 1st District that was used during the 2022 and 2024 elections.

• WI-01: Ragnar:

  • Bryan Steil (R-inc): 50, Mitchell Berman (D): 41.

  • The poll was conducted before Democrat Peter Burgelis joined the race this month.