I saw somewhere (sadly can’t recall where) that the generic dem vs rep in those individual district polls were quite different so my guess is those results are with a GOP friendly candidate bio ‘informed’ ballot
You're going to say that I'm living in dreamland, and maybe I am.
But I just drew a map that Louisiana Democrats should propose to replace their current one. It checks all the necessary boxes - Mike Johnson and Julia Letlow are both protected, with districts similar to what they had on the 2022 map. Scalise and Higgins have safe districts as well. I'm not entirely sure why the state legislature didn't like former congressman Garrett Graves, but he still wouldn't have a good district to make a comeback. The 6th becomes much more compact, and is no longer majority-Black, but still voted for Harris by 5 and Biden by 10. Fields would beat Graves if he tried to run there.
Louisiana Republicans were intent on protecting her last time.
Many of them probably want to make sure there continue to be two Congressmembers from Northern Louisiana. Since there are still some cultural differences between evangelical Northern Louisiana and Cajun/Catholic Southern Louisiana (even if the voting differences between them have largely disappeared).
I wonder how Trump's war with the Pope went over with those southern Louisiana voters? Is there a possible opening further down the ballot for some Democrats in local elections to build the Democratic Party from grassroots?
FL-14: Despite declining before the redraw, I wonder if Lt. Gov. Jay Collins will run against Rep. Kathy Castor to save his career and end his ill-fated gubernatorial campaign.
MN-HD-58B - Republican Minnesota State Rep. Drew Roach was the only member of the evenly-divided state house to vote against an ban on using AI to create child sexual abuse material:
Roach got 60% of the vote in 2024, but, combined with the national political mood not being in Republicans' favor and Roach being extremely controversial, does the DFL have a chance here?
Way worse. I don’t agree with it personally but there’s at least an argument for 17 year olds who are emancipated entering into legal contracts like marriage. AI CSAM? Fuck no
That district is based in the city of Farmington, a southern suburb of the Twin Cities. Farmington is 55% Republican, and unlike other Twin Cities suburbs it hasn't gotten bluer during the Trump era. The rest of the district is rural townships that are even redder.
The district voted for Trump by 19%. If Dems win it, the necessary Democratic wave would be beyond anything in my wildest dreams. (Don't forget that most Americans don't even know who their state legislators are, much less how they voted on any specific piece of legislation.)
What happened there when ICE targeted the Twin Cities? Please don't mind all my questions. I have over active curiosity when it comes to the intersection of politics and human behavior. I have been a people watcher from as far back as 5 years old.
Here's Roach's response/reasoning for why he voted no. For clarification, I completely disagree with his vote and think he could have (and should have) voted yes while still advocating for further measures. I think his vote came from something similar to an all-or-nothing mindset, which when it comes to CSAM is inappropriate and dangerous. But good to know he's not actually in support of CSAM.
Material disseminated using nudification technology is “disgusting” and “vile,” and the victims should have accountability and justice, said Rep. Drew Roach (R-Farmington). But he opposes the bill because it doesn’t get at the root cause and prevent it from happening in the future. He noted that the bill wouldn’t prevent someone from nudifying an image or video if they know how to do it themselves.
“What we’re going to do here is we’re going to attack a software, a manufacturer and instead, shifting our focus on that instead of the perpetrators of these crimes,” he said. “If we want to prevent this from happening in the future, we should go after those perpetrators with the full force of the law.”
I interpreted the comment as saying Platner’s controversies would impede him being elected. I don’t think I agree with that sentiment in this environment. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong though.
MAGA Republicans have been gerrymandering our maps for maximum effect since Operation REDMAP, they've milked 90-95% of the seats they can get.
They're desperately trying to avoid the midterm blue wave but it's not going to help with an unpopular president and fired up Democrats, angry independents and betrayed Republicans looking to vote for the opposition.
I'm not sure about MAGA Republicans voting Blue. I read an article in the NYT yesterday that interviewed 10 Trump Voters who said that they regretted their vote for Trump in 2024 Some said they voted for him 3 times. All said they felt betrayed, but the majority said that they probably just wouldn't vote in the next election coming up. Only about 3 Independents said they were angry enough to vote Democratic. One man in Florida, one woman in Tennessee and another woman in Oregon. The woman in Oregon was from a family that normally voted D.
Former Rep. Dave Brat has been selected to be U.S. Ambassador to Australia. You may remember his historic defeat of Eric Cantor in 2014 — or his 2018 loss to Abigail Spanberger.
A lot of former House members in this administration. Lori Chavez-DeRemer until she left, Tulsi Gabbard, Doug Collins, Michelle Steel, Dan Bishop, Anthony D'Esposito, the failed nominations of Gaetz, Stefanik and Weldon.
Don't forget Mike Waltz, Sean Duffy, John Ratcliffe, and Lee Zeldin, and if you include former Senators you get Markwayne Mullin, Marco Rubio, Kelly Loeffler, David Purdue, and failed candidates Herschel Walker and Sam Brown. I have a feeling that Trump prefers congresspeople because he knows that they've shown they have no backbone and will always bow down to him, unlike the private sector people and career military officers who he had in his administration in his first term like Tillerson or Mattis who occasionally tried to reign him in.
As was briefly discussed yesterday, it's possible to make NJ 11-1, but despite the strong disappointment voiced here by legislators, there is no appetite to make the deep blue districts in North jersey less blue, and no desire to redraw.
We really should get Cleo Fields to run for the Senate since Louisiana is eliminating his district and we don’t have a strong Senate candidate in Louisiana. He probably wouldn’t win, but he’d have a better chance at that than at being reelected to the House.
What is the credibility of Ragnar? Those numbers seem like conservative estimates regarding Democratic overperformance.
The fact that Ciscomani is *still* under even with the conservative bias is hilarious
That was the first thing that leaped to my mind.
These Ragnar polls look out of whack to me, for the most part. No way Nunn is ahead of Trone Garriott like that.
I saw somewhere (sadly can’t recall where) that the generic dem vs rep in those individual district polls were quite different so my guess is those results are with a GOP friendly candidate bio ‘informed’ ballot
You're going to say that I'm living in dreamland, and maybe I am.
But I just drew a map that Louisiana Democrats should propose to replace their current one. It checks all the necessary boxes - Mike Johnson and Julia Letlow are both protected, with districts similar to what they had on the 2022 map. Scalise and Higgins have safe districts as well. I'm not entirely sure why the state legislature didn't like former congressman Garrett Graves, but he still wouldn't have a good district to make a comeback. The 6th becomes much more compact, and is no longer majority-Black, but still voted for Harris by 5 and Biden by 10. Fields would beat Graves if he tried to run there.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c5608b3b-032c-4323-a29b-deed99608be1
Why would Letlow need protection? She's leaving.
Louisiana Republicans were intent on protecting her last time.
Many of them probably want to make sure there continue to be two Congressmembers from Northern Louisiana. Since there are still some cultural differences between evangelical Northern Louisiana and Cajun/Catholic Southern Louisiana (even if the voting differences between them have largely disappeared).
I wonder how Trump's war with the Pope went over with those southern Louisiana voters? Is there a possible opening further down the ballot for some Democrats in local elections to build the Democratic Party from grassroots?
FL-14: Despite declining before the redraw, I wonder if Lt. Gov. Jay Collins will run against Rep. Kathy Castor to save his career and end his ill-fated gubernatorial campaign.
MN-HD-58B - Republican Minnesota State Rep. Drew Roach was the only member of the evenly-divided state house to vote against an ban on using AI to create child sexual abuse material:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DXu5FEJAA3f/?igsh=eGlhMnlpamtwbHYy
Roach got 60% of the vote in 2024, but, combined with the national political mood not being in Republicans' favor and Roach being extremely controversial, does the DFL have a chance here?
Had to do a double take here. That's almost as bad if not worse as Justin Humphrey voting against banning child marriage in Oklahoma.
Much worse, IMO.
Way worse. I don’t agree with it personally but there’s at least an argument for 17 year olds who are emancipated entering into legal contracts like marriage. AI CSAM? Fuck no
That district is based in the city of Farmington, a southern suburb of the Twin Cities. Farmington is 55% Republican, and unlike other Twin Cities suburbs it hasn't gotten bluer during the Trump era. The rest of the district is rural townships that are even redder.
The district voted for Trump by 19%. If Dems win it, the necessary Democratic wave would be beyond anything in my wildest dreams. (Don't forget that most Americans don't even know who their state legislators are, much less how they voted on any specific piece of legislation.)
What happened there when ICE targeted the Twin Cities? Please don't mind all my questions. I have over active curiosity when it comes to the intersection of politics and human behavior. I have been a people watcher from as far back as 5 years old.
Seems to open a lane for a GOP primary challenge, if not too late.
Seems to open a lane for a GOP primary challenge, if not too late.
Here's Roach's response/reasoning for why he voted no. For clarification, I completely disagree with his vote and think he could have (and should have) voted yes while still advocating for further measures. I think his vote came from something similar to an all-or-nothing mindset, which when it comes to CSAM is inappropriate and dangerous. But good to know he's not actually in support of CSAM.
copied from https://www.house.mn.gov/sessiondaily/Story/19118
Material disseminated using nudification technology is “disgusting” and “vile,” and the victims should have accountability and justice, said Rep. Drew Roach (R-Farmington). But he opposes the bill because it doesn’t get at the root cause and prevent it from happening in the future. He noted that the bill wouldn’t prevent someone from nudifying an image or video if they know how to do it themselves.
“What we’re going to do here is we’re going to attack a software, a manufacturer and instead, shifting our focus on that instead of the perpetrators of these crimes,” he said. “If we want to prevent this from happening in the future, we should go after those perpetrators with the full force of the law.”
ME-Sen: Mills drops out
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/janet-mills-drops-out-senate-race-platner-schumer.html
Wow. That's surprising. There were signs, but still.
Whoa.
Just confirms that her heart wasn't really in it. The question is, does she endorse Platner now?
I could see her endorsing Collins before him.
Wow!
Say hello to Senator Plattner. Mills out https://x.com/mwilburn123/status/2049836936102117591?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Janet Mills was never an obstacle to a Senator Platner. Graham Platner himself is the single biggest obstacle to a Senator Platner.
In this environment, I’m not so sure. Trump and the GOP are loathed enough that I could see Platner winning.
I'm not reading a disagreement from you. Who or what are you suggesting is the biggest obstacle to a Senator Platner?
I interpreted the comment as saying Platner’s controversies would impede him being elected. I don’t think I agree with that sentiment in this environment. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong though.
Think about it this way: if he loses, what would have caused the loss? That's the point, not whether he will actually lose.
Good point, agreed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.huffpost.com/entry/platner-consolidates-democratic-support-maine-senate-race_n_69f2b6f9e4b084a938d80cec/amp
Before dropping out, Mills lost some key endorsements from legislators to Platner.
Mills is a poor governor, too pro-corporation, not strong enough on labor, and would not have been much weaker vs Collins.
Better than an R, but not by much.
MAGA Republicans have been gerrymandering our maps for maximum effect since Operation REDMAP, they've milked 90-95% of the seats they can get.
They're desperately trying to avoid the midterm blue wave but it's not going to help with an unpopular president and fired up Democrats, angry independents and betrayed Republicans looking to vote for the opposition.
I'm not sure about MAGA Republicans voting Blue. I read an article in the NYT yesterday that interviewed 10 Trump Voters who said that they regretted their vote for Trump in 2024 Some said they voted for him 3 times. All said they felt betrayed, but the majority said that they probably just wouldn't vote in the next election coming up. Only about 3 Independents said they were angry enough to vote Democratic. One man in Florida, one woman in Tennessee and another woman in Oregon. The woman in Oregon was from a family that normally voted D.
I'm amazed Mills dropped out this early.
Entered late, dropped out early. Why did she run in the first place?
Pressure from Schumer and the establishment. He did good with Peltola, but not here.
Schumer also recruited Roy Cooper, but he's been pushing for him for Senate ever since he was NC's Attorney General.
Besides, Cooper could have ended his career as governor. Senate is the next and likely last logical step for him.
I'm just hoping he'll get some downballot Dem candidates over the line with him in November. Not just incumbent SCONC Justice Anita Earls.
The Maine Democratic Convention is this upcoming weekend.
Where Are They Now?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/28/trump-picks-former-republican-congressman-to-be-ambassador-to-australia-after-17-month-vacancy
Former Rep. Dave Brat has been selected to be U.S. Ambassador to Australia. You may remember his historic defeat of Eric Cantor in 2014 — or his 2018 loss to Abigail Spanberger.
A lot of former House members in this administration. Lori Chavez-DeRemer until she left, Tulsi Gabbard, Doug Collins, Michelle Steel, Dan Bishop, Anthony D'Esposito, the failed nominations of Gaetz, Stefanik and Weldon.
Don't forget Mike Waltz, Sean Duffy, John Ratcliffe, and Lee Zeldin, and if you include former Senators you get Markwayne Mullin, Marco Rubio, Kelly Loeffler, David Purdue, and failed candidates Herschel Walker and Sam Brown. I have a feeling that Trump prefers congresspeople because he knows that they've shown they have no backbone and will always bow down to him, unlike the private sector people and career military officers who he had in his administration in his first term like Tillerson or Mattis who occasionally tried to reign him in.
Mullin and Noem also check the House boxes.
I bet Jeff and David had 90% of the postVRA post written last fall. (Unfortunately) 😕
CA Gov poll Becerra pulling away. https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2049858111586869335?s=20
As was briefly discussed yesterday, it's possible to make NJ 11-1, but despite the strong disappointment voiced here by legislators, there is no appetite to make the deep blue districts in North jersey less blue, and no desire to redraw.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/a-real-setback-black-n-j-leaders-decry-supreme-courts-redistricting-ruling/
We really should get Cleo Fields to run for the Senate since Louisiana is eliminating his district and we don’t have a strong Senate candidate in Louisiana. He probably wouldn’t win, but he’d have a better chance at that than at being reelected to the House.
I wish JBE had run. Ah well.
Checkout this map in the aftermath of the SCOTUS decision with:
1. Racial and ethnic composition by county
2. 231 ICE detention facilities
3. Elected reps (House and Senate) for that area
Purpose is to be able to make it clear to voters how MAGA is hurting them locally.
MAGA Supreme Court OKs racial gerrymandering. Mapping how it could backfire on Republicans.
https://thedemlabs.org/2026/04/30/mapping-racial-gerrymandering-backfire-scotus-2026/