Morning Digest: Republicans have their first shot at a special election flip on Saturday

But Louisiana Democrats think they can defend conservative seat on rural turf

Brad Daigle is the Republican candidate in Saturday’s special election for a Democratic-held seat in the Louisiana House (credit: Brad Daigle website)

Leading Off

Special Elections

Louisiana Democrats are defending a state House seat that Donald Trump carried by 13 points in a challenging, but still competitive, special election on Saturday.

Democrat Chasity Martinez, a member of the Iberville Parish Council, is facing off against Republican Brad Daigle, an insurance agent, in the 60th District, which is based in Acadiana in the southern part of the state.

After a second Democrat dropped out in late December, Martinez and Daigle are the only candidates on the ballot, so it’s all but certain one will secure the requisite majority needed to avert a March 14 runoff.

This district, which includes part of Assumption and Iberville parishes (Louisiana’s equivalent of counties), was last won in 2023 by Democratic state Rep. Chad Brown, who secured his third and final term without opposition.

But while voters in this constituency have remained open to voting for Louisiana Democrats like Brown and former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who carried the district in 2019 when he narrowly won a second term, they haven’t been so friendly to their national counterparts. Donald Trump won the 60th by a 56-43 margin in 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot.

Democrats, however, didn’t think they’d have to defend this seat again until 2027, when Brown would have been prohibited from seeking a fourth four-year term. The incumbent, though, surprised his party in November by resigning to accept a post in Republican Gov. Jeff Landry’s administration. Martinez and Daigle are now competing in the special election for the final two years left of his term.

Republicans will maintain their supermajority in the state House no matter who wins, but there’s still reason to watch this race.

A win for Daigle would make him the first Republican to flip a Democratic-held legislative seat anywhere in the nation since Trump returned to the White House. Democrats, by contrast, have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November.

A victory for Martinez, likewise, would give Democrats a high-profile win in a GOP-dominated state. It would also represent a strong showing on conservative rural turf.

Daigle, who told Plaquemine Post South that “[w]e’ve never had a conservative Republican represent this district,” has argued his constituents would benefit by being represented by a member of the supermajority.

Martinez, meanwhile, told WAFB that voters unhappy with the status quo—and in particular the cost of living—should back her to bring much-needed change.

“We have people that live off of the [Atchafalaya] Basin; they make ends meet like that—that is their livelihood, crawfishing, fishing—there are people at the state level making decisions and not taking to those people who live it every day,” she said. “That’s a problem.”

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Why the GOP is right to freak out after Texas

Election Recaps

NJ-11

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia holds a 29-28 lead over former Rep. Tom Malinowski—a margin of 486 votes—with the Associated Press estimating that 91% of the vote has been tabulated in the special Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. The AP has not projected a winner as of early Friday morning.

The eventual Democratic nominee will be the favorite against Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, who won the Republican nomination without opposition, in the April 16 special election for the reliably blue seat that Mikie Sherrill gave up following her election as governor last year.

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Virginia Democrats unveiled their proposed congressional map on Thursday night, a plan that would, as party leaders had indicated, target four of the five districts Republicans currently hold.

The biggest changes impact the 5th and 6th districts, which would both move more than 20 points to the left when looking at the results of the 2024 presidential election, while the 1st District would become about a dozen points bluer.

The swingy 2nd District, however, would see minimal changes. Under the old lines, it went for Donald Trump by a slender 49.5 to 49.3 margin, while the new version would have given Kamala Harris a narrow 50-49 win, according to data from the Redistricting Data Hub uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App.

For unclear reasons, the neighboring 3rd District, represented by Democrat Bobby Scott, would remain deep blue, even though it could have comfortably shed turf to make the 2nd more favorable for Democrats.

For a complete comparison of the 2024 presidential results for both versions of each district, as well as which Democrats would be likely to run in each new district, please consult our chart.

Before the map can take effect, Democrats must first win an appeal pending before the state Supreme Court, which they’re hoping will overturn a recent lower court ruling that determined lawmakers had failed to follow proper procedures when voting to refer a constitutional amendment to voters.

If the appeal succeeds, voters will likely get to weigh in on the amendment on April 21. The legislature previously passed a bill setting an election on that date, and Gov. Abigail Spanberger is poised to sign it into law on Friday.

Senate

TX-Sen

A super PAC backing state Rep. James Talarico in Texas’ Senate race is going up with the first negative ad of the Democratic primary, portraying Rep. Jasmine Crockett as the GOP’s preferred opponent.

“Two Democrats running for Senate in Texas. Jasmine Crocket is the only one being backed by Republicans,” a narrator for Lone Star Rising PAC begins. “They spent money to lift her up and push her into this race. Here’s why.”

The spot then features a clip of CNN anchor Abby Phillip saying, “She is their favorite candidate because they think that they can beat her.”

“So with all that’s at stake and absolutely everything on the line, remember this,” the narrator resumes. Former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake then makes a cameo (he was also part of Phillip’s segment), saying, “It is a gift to Republicans.” The narrator concludes, “We lose.”

It’s not clear how much Lone Star Rising is putting into this effort, though AdImpact had tracked at least $3.8 million in reservations as of Wednesday. The group previously reported spending $840,000 on pro-Talarico ads.

Governors

NY-Gov

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani backed New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Thursday in her renomination contest against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

The prominent democratic socialist wrote in an op-ed in The Nation that while he has “real differences” with Hochul, who has cultivated a more moderate image, he sees her as “someone willing to engage in an honest dialogue that leads to results.”

Mamdani’s endorsement came one day before the start of the state Democratic Party’s convention, where the governor is hoping to score an overwhelming victory over Delgado.

While there’s little question that delegates will award Hochul the party’s endorsement, there’s more suspense over whether Delgado will receive the requisite 25% of the weighted vote that would grant him an automatic spot on the June 23 primary ballot.

If he falls short, he can still continue his campaign if he submits 15,000 valid signatures by April 6. Delgado told City & State last week that, while he hopes to do well at the convention, he still plans to collect petitions.

Republicans will hold their convention Feb. 9-11, but Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman faces no serious intraparty opposition in his quest to face Hochul. However, while Blakeman has Donald Trump’s seal of approval, delegates who view him as insufficiently conservative on abortion and gun issues could still try to make trouble for him.

House

FL-02

Bay County Tax Collector Chuck Perdue, who’d been considering a bid for Florida’s newly open 2nd District, says he won’t join the GOP primary to replace retiring Republican Rep. Neal Dunn. At least four notable Republican candidates are vying for this conservative district in the Panhandle.

GA-11

Bobby Saparow, a former campaign manager for Gov. Brian Kemp, has received calls encouraging him to run to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk, journalist Juliegrace Brufke reports. Saparow, who also worked as chief of staff to then-Rep. Drew Ferguson, has yet to say anything publicly about his interest.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution also mentions several other Republicans as possible contenders for the reliably red 11th Congressional District, though none have indicated whether they’re considering. The most prominent member of this group is Brandon Beach, a former state senator whom Donald Trump appointed treasurer of the United States last year.

IN-01

Former state cabinet member Jennifer-Ruth Green ended her bid for a rematch against Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan on Thursday, just one day before Indiana’s candidate filing deadline.

Green, who lost to Mrvan in 2022, griped in a statement that the GOP-dominated legislature didn’t pass a new gerrymander to weaken him in a constituency that Kamala Harris carried by a slender 49.4 to 49.0 margin. Green did not mention the ethics scandal that led to her resignation from Gov. Mike Braun’s cabinet.

Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz is now the frontrunner to oppose Mrvan in the 1st Congressional District in the northwestern corner of the state. Regnitz, who is self-funding almost her entire campaign, ended 2025 with almost $1.5 million in the bank, compared to about $900,000 for the congressman.

NC-04

Leaders We Deserve, the group founded by activist David Hogg, has launched what the National Journal reports is a six-figure ad buy to boost Durham County Commish Nida Alam’s primary rematch against Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee.

“Valerie Foushee only works for the big guys,” the commercial’s narrator tells the audience. “She’s bankrolled by big tech, big pharma, big crypto, and AIPAC.” He goes on to praise Alam as someone who “works for the people.”

Foushee defeated Alam 46-37 in 2022 when they competed to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. David Price in North Carolina’s 4th District, a reliably blue constituency that includes the college towns of Durham and Chapel Hill.

Alam launched a second effort in December, just three weeks before the end of the quarter, but she quickly amassed a larger war chest than the incumbent. Alam finished 2025 with a roughly $310,000 to $190,000 cash on hand advantage over Foushee after outraising her during her opening quarter.

OH-01

The close of candidate filing in Ohio on Thursday brought some clarity to the race for the 1st District, where Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman is defending a Cincinnati-area constituency that became more conservative under the state’s new congressional map.

Two notable Republicans are running in the May 5 primary, and both have self-funded a majority of the money they took in last year. One of those contenders is Eric Conroy, an Air Force veteran and former CIA officer whom the National Journal writes “appears to be the preferred choice by national operatives.”

The other is dentist Steven Erbeck, who, like Conroy, announced his campaign in the summer before he knew what the new 1st District would even look like. Erbeck ended 2025 with a little more than $460,000 in the bank, while Conroy was just behind with $440,000.

Landsman, meanwhile, had $1.5 million stockpiled to defend the seat he first won in 2022 when he unseated GOP Rep. Steve Chabot.

But while Landsman easily won a second term as Kamala Harris was carrying his constituency 53-46, he received some unwelcome news in October when the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission approved a map that left him in a district that Donald Trump would have carried 51-48.

Despite the serious overhaul, though, prominent Republicans remained on the sidelines and declined to join Erbeck and Conroy in the primary.

Landsman, though, may not be able to focus exclusively on his general election just yet. Activist Damon Lynch IV, the son and grandson of prominent local pastors who share his name, is challenging the congressman for renomination.

PA-08

Gov. Josh Shapiro just endorsed Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in her bid to unseat Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District. Congnetti is the only notable Democrat in the race, and with Shapiro’s support, her status is unlikely to change.

WY-AL, WY-Sen

Wyoming State Senate President Bo Biteman tells Cowboy State Daily he’s “looking seriously” at seeking the House seat that Rep. Harriet Hageman, a fellow Republican, is leaving behind to run for the Senate. Biteman, though, says he won’t decide until after the legislative session ends on March 11.

A more prominent Republican, however, may also be eyeing this race.

Jasmine Hall of the Jackson Hole News&Guide’s writes that allies of Gov. Mark Gordon wonder whether he’s interested in running for the House, or perhaps might even oppose Hageman in the Senate primary. The governor also hasn’t ruled out waging a court challenge to a state law limiting governors to just two terms, though Hall notes that “the window for doing so appears to be all but past.”

Gordon’s team neither confirmed nor denied that he might seek office this year. A spokesperson, who told Hall that Gordon was concentrating on the legislative session, added, “He understands the Wyoming people do not like long elections and will not be announcing any decisions until a more appropriate time.”

Candidate filing closes in Wyoming on May 29, which is one of the latest deadlines in the country.

House

Donald Trump fired off a boatload of endorsements in Republican House primaries on Wednesday night, giving his backing to:

• Assemblymember James Gallagher, running in the special election for California’s vacant 1st District;

• Siouxland Chamber of Commerce head Chris McGowan in Iowa’s open 4th District;

• State Sen. Blake Miguez in Louisiana’s open 5th District;

• Former Assemblyman Mike LiPetri, seeking to take on Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi in New York’s 3rd District;

• State Sen. Peter Oberacker, running against Democratic Rep. Josh Riley in New York’s 19th District;

• Former Texas Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira in Texas’ open 21st District; and

• Attorney Jace Yarbrough in Texas’ open 32nd District.

Yarbrough also just got a boost from a group called Strong PAC, which just began a $500,000 TV ad buy on his behalf, according to journalist Brad Johnson.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

A major progressive group has launched the first ads of Wisconsin’s April 7 election for the state Supreme Court, with a reported seven-figure digital buy hammering conservative candidate Maria Lazar.

One spot goes after Lazar, a judge on the state Court of Appeals, for calling the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade “very wise,” while the other hits her for supporting “groups that want to ban books in schools, and even prevent schools from teaching about slavery.” She’s facing another Appeals Court judge, Chris Taylor, who has outraised Lazar 10-to-1.

WisPolitics notes that outside spending has gotten off to a slow start compared to last year’s Supreme Court race, when control of the body was on the line and total outlays topped more than $100 million. However, after progressives defended their 4-3 majority, interest in this year’s election, in which a conservative seat is up for grabs, has been more muted.

Other Races

New Mexico

Candidate filing for statewide and congressional races closed in New Mexico earlier this week, and perhaps the most notable fact is that Republicans failed to recruit anyone to run for either state treasurer or auditor.

For Auditor Joseph Maestas, it’ll be the second time in a row that he’s gone without major-party opposition after winning his first term in 2022 over a Libertarian in a landslide. Fellow Democrat Laura Montoya will have a similarly easy time securing a second term as treasurer, a post the GOP last left uncontested in 2002. Republicans, however, have not won an election for either office since the 1960s.

There were no surprises in other races, though Republican hopes of reclaiming the 2nd Congressional District from Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez look dim. A highly touted GOP recruit, Marine veteran Greg Cunningham, actually got outraised by a little-known DEA contractor named Jose Orozco during the fourth quarter of last year.

Neither contender turned in an impressive showing, though, with Orozco taking in $212,000 and Cunningham just $172,000. Vasquez, meanwhile, raised more than $530,000 during the same timeframe and had almost $1.3 million in his campaign coffers.

Democrats remain the heavy favorites to win the state’s two other House races, and they’re also likely to prevail in the statewide contests that Republicans actually are contesting, including the battle for the open governorship.

Note that candidates for other offices, including the state legislature, are not required to file for the June 2 primaries until March 10. For a complete list of every filing deadline, primary, and runoff this year, please bookmark our new election calendar.

Poll Pile

• KY-Sen (R): Emerson College for Nexstar Media: Andy Barr: 24, Daniel Cameron: 21, Nate Morris: 14, undecided: 38.

• KY-Sen (D): Emerson: Charles Booker: 30, Amy McGrath: 19, Pamela Stevenson: 4, others 2% or less, undecided: 43.

• ME-Sen: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) for Pine Tree Results (pro-Susan Collins):

  • Susan Collins (R-inc): 45, Janet Mills (D): 44.

  • Collins (R-inc): 45, Graham Platner (D): 44.

• TX-Sen (R): J.L. Partners: Ken Paxton: 27, Wesley Hunt: 26, John Cornyn (inc): 26. (Dec.: Paxton: 29, Cornyn: 24, Hunt: 24.)