One of the advantages Cameron has had over Barr and Morris is statewide name recognition from his term as AG and his 2023 campaign for Governor. I'd expect that to fade at least a little as Barr and Morris become more known. Also, the MOE is 4.2%, so Barr and Cameron are almost even - and the true leader of the poll is Undecided.
I think it would be beneficial to include the MOE when known when reporting out poll numbers (both for The Downballot and as a best practice that all of us should be doing).
I wonder why GOP electeds in Texas largely avoided running for the open 8th, 10th, 19th, 21st, 32nd, and 38th districts. Almost all of the candidates for those seats are complete unknowns.
People like Steinmann (8th) and Gober (10th) are known to party insiders, while Teixeira (21st) is known somewhat nationally despite not being a politician. The 19th, 32nd and 38th seem barren, though.
So true, i was looking on politics1 to see who was running in these districts and saw a bunch of B, C tier candidates. The only other state where politicians value being in the state legislature more than congress might be California, but maybe not to this extent.
Two quick comments. Regarding the Washington Post, what is happening now is absolutely frustrating and maddening. I cancelled my subscription a couple of years ago when Bezos refused to back Kamala. Loved the paper but hated the owner. On subscribing to the 'Downballot' - I just can't afford to subscribe to all the new news outlets. $60 a year times xx - too stiff for this guy. I aleady subscribe to my local - local newspaper, to my local (Kansas City Star), to Boston Globe and New York Times!! Maybe I hit the "Downballot" later. You are doing a great job.
I stopped paying for NYT because of Pamela Paul some years ago and Kathleen Kingsbury hasn't been much better to make me come back lol. I default to archive.ph for a lot minus any small papers I want to support and the Financial Times as the best mainstream news org lol.
I get access online to the NYT the through my library. They grant 3 days at a time (only one day for cooking and crossword)and it takes about 1 minutes to activate all 3.
I just realized something: if we manage to get a trifecta in 2029 and pass a bill banning partisan gerrymandering, it would actually be the perfect time to expand the House because it would allow many if not all of the reps in gerrymandered seats a way to stay in office. It still probably won't happen, but it could be a way to increase political support for a ban on gerrymandering.
And codifying Roe into federal law. That, banning gerrymandering, and expanding the Supreme Court (or accountability for rogue justices like Thomas and Alito).
I think he's saying a structural change to government institutions themselves can only be swallowed one at a time, so SC reform v more reps would have to pick the court. And gerrymandering and reproductive rights wouldn't be a part of that; we of course need an aggressive policy-driven agenda.
For those of you curious about why I think Alan Wilson will eventually have trouble in his run for SC Gov, the first 3/4 of this podcast episode summarize his ties to pay for play scandals that hit SC 10ish years ago and his apparent protection of a Friend of Police who chased a guy down the road for 9 miles before shooting him to death and is now claiming a stand your ground defense. The last 15-20 minutes plays recordings of phone calls where the shooters brag about it which I recommend skipping if you've been triggered enough by videos from Minneapolis. Nancy Mace will surely exploit all this. It might work to get Pam Evette elected, but I suspect Nancy would rather have Evette than Alan Wilson. https://pdst.fm/e/swap.fm/track/JhoQDAATtO1l0y8tdKNa/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADL1688248398.mp3
Bonus, RJ May, the SC senator whose child sex trafficking case spurred the flurry of SC specials around Christmas was sentenced to 17 years in federal court.
Arizona is processing a bill through the legislature to move the primary from the first Tuesday in August to the second to last Tuesday in July. It's to provide more time to cure ballots among other things.
It passed the house with unanimous bipartisan support. I don't recall the last time that happened on anything. Hobbs will sign it.
Too bad AZ Republicans won't be bipartisan on other election issues and rather than address it, they merely put amendments on the ballot to bypass Hobbs and hope voters are dumb enough to vote for it.
"A group of moderate Democrats is kicking off the midterm season by targeting one of the mightiest, if least-known, forces in their party: the interest group questionnaire-industrial complex.
Rohan Patel and Seth London, who oversee Majority Democrats — a group of young Democrats that have won competitive races — want their candidates to know they shouldn’t feel obliged to complete the often-expansive advocacy group forms. They’re also telling these organizations’ donors to think twice about contributing and urging the groups to heal thyselves by overhauling or mothballing the documents, which are typically used to determine endorsements."
"Consider: When Barack Obama was first sworn in as president, his party had five of the six Senate seats in Montana and the two Dakotas. Now Republicans have all six.
Yes, winning a bare Senate majority, breaking the filibuster and then granting Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood is one path to additional Senate seats. Yet that still won’t better the party’s chances across the South and Great Plains, which are vital to building a majority with cushion.
“You look at the next two to three Senate cycles, we’ll be scratching and clawing to get and hold 50 or 51 seats,” as London put it.
Then he lowered the boom, insert trigger warning here, invoking the names of the three current and former Senate Democrats the left most despises.
“We want more Manchins and Sinemas and Fettermans,” London said. “That is the cost of having a fucking majority. And our donors need to understand when you have a majority, you get to set the agenda.”
Last, but certainly not least, there’s the matter of Democrats’ coronary-inducing path to winning the presidency, as seen for a decade. Yes, they can still find their way to a significant Electoral College majority — see 2020 — but it’s built on extraordinarily thin margins in swing states. Does the party really want to keep betting American democracy on Philadelphia’s suburbs, turnout in Madison and how the auto economy and ancient Mideast enmities will shape metro Detroit?"
Some are very questionable while some other "questionable" commitments"
"Do you support and will you co-sponsor Medicare for All legislation, (S. 1655 and H.R. 3421) in the 118th Congress?
National Nurses United (NNU)
Federal Endorsement Questionnaire, 2026
I understand that I must maintain a 100% voting record while in office in order to be endorsed by Planned Parenthood Votes South Atlantic.
Planned Parenthood South Atlantic
If elected, do you promise not to join the Blue Dog Caucus, the New Democrat Caucus, and Third Way?
I think they are just salty that one of their candidates who Majority Dems, Patel, Lis Smith etc saw as a future leader and presidential material nationally, Angie Craig, is getting hit hard by these aforementioned groups, activists and Peggy Flanagan for her terrible voting record.
PCCC, NNU and Planned Parenthood are not attacking swing district dems.
One of the funnier things I've seen in discussions after Mejia's upset win is Republicans thinking that Democrats are now about to nominate Crockett, AES, and Platner. No, just because you guys throw winnable Senate and gubernatorial races left and right doesn't mean our voters operate the same way.
Well, some of them are dumb. Republicans would be holding a Senate supermajority right now if they were competent after blowing four winnable races in 2022 and four in 2024.
Touche on Mejia not winning yet, I assumed it had been called. El-Sayed and Platner carry a lot of unnecessary risk but could still win, whereas I don't see a path for Crockett even against Paxton. In that light, you're right, they are not the same.
Agreed I support McMorrow because I think she is talented, does not throw bombs and is electable but let's not pretend AES will lose atleast this year.
Platner is the favorite in his race no matter what you think of him while Talarico is the real progressive choice in Texas. Progressive influencers as well as the PCCC have closed their ranks around him. Crockett is about throwing bombs not progressivism.
IL-2 - A group calling itself Affordable Chicago Now (ACN) is running ads on behalf of Democratic primary candidate Donna Miller in the Champaign-Springfield TV market.
ACN is widely believed to be an AIPAC-aligned dark money group.
The Miguez (lives far from district) and Yarbrough (not familiar with him) endorsements as well as Barr winning the Senate (KY) poll are surprising.
One of the advantages Cameron has had over Barr and Morris is statewide name recognition from his term as AG and his 2023 campaign for Governor. I'd expect that to fade at least a little as Barr and Morris become more known. Also, the MOE is 4.2%, so Barr and Cameron are almost even - and the true leader of the poll is Undecided.
I think it would be beneficial to include the MOE when known when reporting out poll numbers (both for The Downballot and as a best practice that all of us should be doing).
I wonder why GOP electeds in Texas largely avoided running for the open 8th, 10th, 19th, 21st, 32nd, and 38th districts. Almost all of the candidates for those seats are complete unknowns.
People like Steinmann (8th) and Gober (10th) are known to party insiders, while Teixeira (21st) is known somewhat nationally despite not being a politician. The 19th, 32nd and 38th seem barren, though.
The TX legislature is actually a pretty chill gig for a lot of them, and being in Congress right now fucking sucks
So true, i was looking on politics1 to see who was running in these districts and saw a bunch of B, C tier candidates. The only other state where politicians value being in the state legislature more than congress might be California, but maybe not to this extent.
In theory, in Texas especially the legislature is pretty powerful and the Gov is pretty weak.
Plus TX state senators have a bigger constituency than congressmen and they only sit every other year
Two quick comments. Regarding the Washington Post, what is happening now is absolutely frustrating and maddening. I cancelled my subscription a couple of years ago when Bezos refused to back Kamala. Loved the paper but hated the owner. On subscribing to the 'Downballot' - I just can't afford to subscribe to all the new news outlets. $60 a year times xx - too stiff for this guy. I aleady subscribe to my local - local newspaper, to my local (Kansas City Star), to Boston Globe and New York Times!! Maybe I hit the "Downballot" later. You are doing a great job.
I stopped paying for NYT because of Pamela Paul some years ago and Kathleen Kingsbury hasn't been much better to make me come back lol. I default to archive.ph for a lot minus any small papers I want to support and the Financial Times as the best mainstream news org lol.
I get access online to the NYT the through my library. They grant 3 days at a time (only one day for cooking and crossword)and it takes about 1 minutes to activate all 3.
I cancelled it when Bezos purged the opinion column and replaced the talented writers with ostensibly libertarian anti-(anti-Trump) sycophant thrash.
I think the narrow NJ primary race will determine whether other blue district primary challenges (like Allam vs. Foushee in NC) are successful.
Bit of a unique situation. There were four relatively strong candidates and a major interest group went all kamikaze on the front runner.
I just realized something: if we manage to get a trifecta in 2029 and pass a bill banning partisan gerrymandering, it would actually be the perfect time to expand the House because it would allow many if not all of the reps in gerrymandered seats a way to stay in office. It still probably won't happen, but it could be a way to increase political support for a ban on gerrymandering.
I think gerrymandering reform is 100% on the docket the next time we have a federal trifecta, and the public would be behind us
But I think beyond that, Dems only have the stomach for only one “pie in the sky” structural change. Expanding the Supreme Court should be it
And codifying Roe into federal law. That, banning gerrymandering, and expanding the Supreme Court (or accountability for rogue justices like Thomas and Alito).
I think he's saying a structural change to government institutions themselves can only be swallowed one at a time, so SC reform v more reps would have to pick the court. And gerrymandering and reproductive rights wouldn't be a part of that; we of course need an aggressive policy-driven agenda.
DC and PR statehood right away
Then expand the court to make up for the Ginsburg and Scalia seats.
Doesn't even have to be about revenge, it should just be bigger.
For those of you curious about why I think Alan Wilson will eventually have trouble in his run for SC Gov, the first 3/4 of this podcast episode summarize his ties to pay for play scandals that hit SC 10ish years ago and his apparent protection of a Friend of Police who chased a guy down the road for 9 miles before shooting him to death and is now claiming a stand your ground defense. The last 15-20 minutes plays recordings of phone calls where the shooters brag about it which I recommend skipping if you've been triggered enough by videos from Minneapolis. Nancy Mace will surely exploit all this. It might work to get Pam Evette elected, but I suspect Nancy would rather have Evette than Alan Wilson. https://pdst.fm/e/swap.fm/track/JhoQDAATtO1l0y8tdKNa/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADL1688248398.mp3
Bonus, RJ May, the SC senator whose child sex trafficking case spurred the flurry of SC specials around Christmas was sentenced to 17 years in federal court.
True Sunlight podcast episode 135 if that's easier than the link.
https://www.votebeat.org/arizona/2026/02/04/2026-primary-election-date-move-earlier-legislature-bill-kolodin-hobbs/
Arizona is processing a bill through the legislature to move the primary from the first Tuesday in August to the second to last Tuesday in July. It's to provide more time to cure ballots among other things.
It passed the house with unanimous bipartisan support. I don't recall the last time that happened on anything. Hobbs will sign it.
Sounds like an eminently reasonable and prudent reform. Besides, I’ll always endorse earlier primaries
Too bad AZ Republicans won't be bipartisan on other election issues and rather than address it, they merely put amendments on the ballot to bypass Hobbs and hope voters are dumb enough to vote for it.
New endeavor from the successor of the DLC:
"A group of moderate Democrats is kicking off the midterm season by targeting one of the mightiest, if least-known, forces in their party: the interest group questionnaire-industrial complex.
Rohan Patel and Seth London, who oversee Majority Democrats — a group of young Democrats that have won competitive races — want their candidates to know they shouldn’t feel obliged to complete the often-expansive advocacy group forms. They’re also telling these organizations’ donors to think twice about contributing and urging the groups to heal thyselves by overhauling or mothballing the documents, which are typically used to determine endorsements."
"Consider: When Barack Obama was first sworn in as president, his party had five of the six Senate seats in Montana and the two Dakotas. Now Republicans have all six.
Yes, winning a bare Senate majority, breaking the filibuster and then granting Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood is one path to additional Senate seats. Yet that still won’t better the party’s chances across the South and Great Plains, which are vital to building a majority with cushion.
“You look at the next two to three Senate cycles, we’ll be scratching and clawing to get and hold 50 or 51 seats,” as London put it.
Then he lowered the boom, insert trigger warning here, invoking the names of the three current and former Senate Democrats the left most despises.
“We want more Manchins and Sinemas and Fettermans,” London said. “That is the cost of having a fucking majority. And our donors need to understand when you have a majority, you get to set the agenda.”
Last, but certainly not least, there’s the matter of Democrats’ coronary-inducing path to winning the presidency, as seen for a decade. Yes, they can still find their way to a significant Electoral College majority — see 2020 — but it’s built on extraordinarily thin margins in swing states. Does the party really want to keep betting American democracy on Philadelphia’s suburbs, turnout in Madison and how the auto economy and ancient Mideast enmities will shape metro Detroit?"
Some are very questionable while some other "questionable" commitments"
"Do you support and will you co-sponsor Medicare for All legislation, (S. 1655 and H.R. 3421) in the 118th Congress?
National Nurses United (NNU)
Federal Endorsement Questionnaire, 2026
I understand that I must maintain a 100% voting record while in office in order to be endorsed by Planned Parenthood Votes South Atlantic.
Planned Parenthood South Atlantic
If elected, do you promise not to join the Blue Dog Caucus, the New Democrat Caucus, and Third Way?
Progressive Campaign Change Committee"
https://thequestionable.org/
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/02/06/democrats-questionnaire-interest-group-00767764
Sounds like Politico isn't happy about Analilia Mejia getting close to winning her primary.
Christ I hate Politico.
I think they are just salty that one of their candidates who Majority Dems, Patel, Lis Smith etc saw as a future leader and presidential material nationally, Angie Craig, is getting hit hard by these aforementioned groups, activists and Peggy Flanagan for her terrible voting record.
PCCC, NNU and Planned Parenthood are not attacking swing district dems.
One of the funnier things I've seen in discussions after Mejia's upset win is Republicans thinking that Democrats are now about to nominate Crockett, AES, and Platner. No, just because you guys throw winnable Senate and gubernatorial races left and right doesn't mean our voters operate the same way.
Mejia hasn't won yet and el-Sayed and Platner are not the same as Crockett, but I get your point.
There's a reason Republicans want to run against them, and I don't think they're wrong in that preference.
a little sus to agree with republicans on their preferences in our primaries
Is it sus for national Republicans to agree with us that Paxton is the weakest option in Texas? That makes no sense.
Yeah, Republicam operatives aren't dumb. Agreeing with Republicans that the sky js blue isn't sus.
Well, some of them are dumb. Republicans would be holding a Senate supermajority right now if they were competent after blowing four winnable races in 2022 and four in 2024.
Touche on Mejia not winning yet, I assumed it had been called. El-Sayed and Platner carry a lot of unnecessary risk but could still win, whereas I don't see a path for Crockett even against Paxton. In that light, you're right, they are not the same.
Crockett is the only one of those people that would go on to lose the general election.
Agreed I support McMorrow because I think she is talented, does not throw bombs and is electable but let's not pretend AES will lose atleast this year.
Platner is the favorite in his race no matter what you think of him while Talarico is the real progressive choice in Texas. Progressive influencers as well as the PCCC have closed their ranks around him. Crockett is about throwing bombs not progressivism.
"Donors give over $3 million to boost tech-friendly California governor candidate
The cash infusion could help the moderate San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan make up ground after a late entry into the governor’s race."
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/05/mahan-tech-donors-white-00767433
IL-2 - A group calling itself Affordable Chicago Now (ACN) is running ads on behalf of Democratic primary candidate Donna Miller in the Champaign-Springfield TV market.
ACN is widely believed to be an AIPAC-aligned dark money group.
Already posted here twice.
What was the "Loudoun County" moment of last night, where you realized Mejia could actually pull this off?