Morning Digest: Republicans still aren't spending like the New Jersey governor's race is a tossup

A new independent poll shows a tie. Ad dollars paint a different picture.

Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee for governor of New Jersey (credit: Jack Ciattarelli Facebook)

Leading Off

NJ-Gov

Even as a new independent poll finds a tied race for New Jersey’s open governorship, backers of Republican Jack Ciattarelli are still not spending as though they believe he’s in a tight contest against Democrat Mikie Sherrill.

Emerson College shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli deadlocked 43-43 in the school’s first survey of the Nov. 4 general election.

The poll, which was conducted for The Hill, PIX11, and Nexstar Media, also finds both Donald Trump and Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy unpopular with voters. Trump sports a 41-51 job approval rating, while Murphy, who is termed out, posts a 35-44 score.

Ciattarelli received some less hopeful numbers just hours later on Thursday when a Koch-backed group called “yes. every kid” released its own poll finding Sherrill ahead 48-41. Respondents disapprove of Trump 41-55, while they’re split on Murphy 48-48.

The organization tells The Downballot that this poll was conducted “in-house” by Scott Foster, who has worked for Republican polling firms.

These surveys were publicized a week after Quinnipiac University found Garden State voters much more supportive of Democrats. Quinnipiac placed Sherrill ahead 49-41, and a small 48-44 plurality of respondents said they liked Murphy’s performance in office. Trump, by contrast, posted the same underwater 41-55 approval rating that Foster finds.

Ciattarelli, meanwhile, shared an internal poll during the intervening time that found him edging past Sherrill 46-45, which made it the first—and so far only—survey to show him with any sort of lead. The Republican nominee, as we noted at the time, was likely showing off these numbers from National Research to convince donors that his campaign, which has been getting badly outspent, is worth investing in.

Morning Digest: The GOP cavalry finally arrives in New Jersey, but it's still getting swamped

So far, that pitch hasn’t worked as intended. New data from AdImpact shows that Sherrill and her allies have reserved $13.4 million in advertising for the remaining weeks of the campaign, compared to just $2.6 million for Ciattarelli’s side.

There’s still time for well-funded Republican groups to rush in if they become convinced that this race is the tossup that the polls from Emerson and Ciattarelli show, instead of the Democratic-friendly contest that Foster, Quinnipiac, and most prior surveys have found. One prominent Republican, though, is giving Ciattarelli some help for free—whether he likes it or not.

“Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in response to Emerson’s new numbers.

The GOP’s supreme master, who didn’t seem to know or care that this same poll showed him unpopular with the electorate Ciattarelli needs to win over, continued by predicting he’ll be “a GREAT Governor” while claiming Sherrill wants “Transgender for everyone.”

Ciattarelli, for his part, would prefer that Trump not hog the spotlight any more than he has to.

“I wouldn’t say he’s dominating the race. He’s certainly something that all my opponent wants to talk about,” Ciattarelli told Fox News this week. “But as I keep saying to people, we got a property tax crisis in this state. The president doesn’t have anything to do with that.”

Sherrill, by contrast, is arguing that Trump is breaking federal law to aid her opponent.

CBS News reported Wednesday that the National Archives provided a Ciattarelli ally with a largely unredacted copy of Sherrill’s record from her time in the Navy—including her Social Security number. Reporter James LaPorta writes that a veteran’s full file is only made accessible to the general public 62 years after the completion of their service.

LaPorta says that the network discovered the “egregious blunder” while looking into whether Sherrill was involved in a massive cheating scandal that occurred during her time at the Naval Academy in the 1990s. LaPorta learned that Sherrill was not implicated, though the candidate said she did not get to walk at her commencement because she “didn’t turn in some of my classmates.”

The National Archives responded by saying that a technician had not followed the proper protocols and “should NOT have released the entire record.” Sherrill, though, isn’t convinced it was a simple mistake.

“That Jack Ciattarelli and the Trump administration are illegally weaponizing my records for political gain is a violation of anyone who has ever served our country,” she said in a statement. “No veteran’s record is safe.”

---

The Jimmy Kimmel saga is an instructive one: We can never be sure if we’ll win, but if we don’t fight, we’re guaranteed to lose. At The Downballot, we fight every day for our democracy, our freedoms, and our country. We’d be incredibly grateful if you could help support us in our mission.

---

How to poll diverse communities

Redistricting Roundup

KS Redistricting

Despite reports that Kansas Republicans are gearing up to pass a new congressional gerrymander, one critical player is not on board just yet: state House Speaker Dan Hawkins.

Before any redraw can happen this year, two-thirds of lawmakers in each chamber must sign a petition calling the legislature back into session. On paper, Republicans have the numbers. In practice, it appears that they’re short.

“We don’t have anything on that yet,” Hawkins told the Topeka Capital-Journal regarding a possible petition. “We’re not there.”

“It’s not a matter of what I want,” he added. “It’s a matter of what the people want.”

NC Redistricting

Republicans in North Carolina, who for years have set the standard when it comes to extreme gerrymandering, are gearing up to push their congressional map even further—and there’s a goodie in store for a top GOP leader if it happens, reports CBS 17.

Reporter Deana Harley writes that, according to unnamed sources, Republicans plan to once again target the 1st District in the northeastern corner of the state, which is currently held by Democrat Don Davis. The GOP already made Davis’ district redder ahead of last year’s election when it passed a previous mid-decade gerrymander, though Davis narrowly hung on. Now, however, they could try to drive it even further to the right.

If they do, says Harley, Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger apparently expects to be rewarded with an endorsement from Donald Trump, who has been pressing Republicans nationwide to rig their maps.

The 73-year-old Berger faces the first serious primary challenge of his long career—he’s been in office since 2001—from Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, whom The Assembly described as “Trump’s Favorite N.C. Sheriff” in a headline earlier this year. After finishing in fifth place in last year’s primary for lieutenant governor, Page has raised very little while Berger has a massive war chest, though an April poll showed Page leading.

Berger did not rule out the possibility of a new map in a statement, though he denied any quid pro quo with Trump.

“If we have to draw one more map this year, we will,” he wrote. “That said, I’ve never spoken to President Trump about this or an endorsement. The Democrats are spreading lies to hurt President Trump.”

Should Berger and his colleagues proceed with a redraw, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein would not be able to veto any new districts due to a deliberate carve-out in North Carolina law that exempts redistricting plans from gubernatorial approval.

Senate

KY-Sen

Businessman Nate Morris is the beneficiary of a $1.1 million ad buy from a group funded by conservative megadonor Dick Uihlein, the Lexington Herald Leader reports.

Restoration of America PAC, which is the first outside group to air pro-Morris spots, is going up almost eight full months before Kentucky’s May 19 Republican Senate primary. But this commercial, which touts Morris as a successful businessman and “ninth-generation Kentuckian,” is far from the first in the contest to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell.

Morris has used his fortune to fund ads portraying his two main intra-party rivals, Rep. Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, as “Mitch’s boys.” A pro-Barr super PAC has struck back by airing commercials with footage of Morris saying he “made contributions to Mitch McConnell” to bolster its argument that he’s not the committed Donald Trump ally he claims to be.

Barr himself began running positive ads this month depicting himself as an ardent Trumpist, while his antagonists at the Club for Growth have attacked him on the air as a McConnell lackey. (Uihlein is one of the Club’s main donors, though the Herald Leader notes he’s also contributed to Barr’s Senate campaign.)

Cameron, by contrast, has not yet run any TV ads or received any outside help.

NH-Sen

State Sen. Dan Innis announced Thursday that he was suspending his campaign for U.S. Senate and urging former Sen. John Sununu to enter the race.

Innis, who has urged his fellow New Hampshire Republicans to pass a new congressional gerrymander—so far unsuccessfully—added that he would restart his campaign if Sununu doesn’t run. Sununu, who hails from one of the most prominent political families in the state, has said that he’ll decide by the end of next month if he’ll run to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

But while Innis encouraged former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown to join him in deferring to Sununu, Brown has other ideas.

“Since when do we just vote for a name?” Brown asked WMUR. “We have the Bushes, the Clintons, the Shaheens, the Sununus—it’s not a monarchy. You have to earn it.”

Governors

GA-Gov

A new internal poll for former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms finds her leading next year’s Democratic primary for Georgia’s open governorship with 38% of the vote, while former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond edges past former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan 12-9 for the second slot in a potential runoff.

Three other named candidates are all in the low single digits, and 36% say they’re undecided, according to the survey, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling and was first shared by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The poll did not ask about state Rep. Ruwa Romman, who said last month that she’s considering a bid and, according to the AJC, is now “expected” to run.

ME-Gov

State Rep. Ed Crockett announced on Wednesday that he’s leaving the Democratic Party and will run for Maine’s open governorship as an independent.

Crockett is the second notable contender to join the race without a party affiliation. In June, Republican state Sen. Rick Bennett quit the GOP to launch an independent bid, following the passage of a new law allowing unaffiliated candidates to raise more money than they’d been permitted to in the past.

Both Democrats and Republicans have busy primaries, but unlike in federal races in Maine, the general election to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills will not be decided by ranked-choice voting. (Ranked-choice will still be used for the primary.) As a result, the presence of independent candidates could allow the state’s next governor to win with a plurality rather than a majority of the vote.

NE-Gov

Wealthy agribusinessman Charles Herbster says he still hasn’t ruled out seeking a rematch against Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, who narrowly defeated him in the 2022 Republican primary.

“I want to see what the voters want, and I want to see what’s going to take place in the state of Nebraska over the next few months,” Herbster told the Journal Star on Wednesday. “So I’m not making any decision.”

PA-Gov

Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano has been eagerly touting a poll of a hypothetical Republican primary for governor that shows him with a 39-20 lead over the only announced candidate in the race, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity.

But the survey was not, as you might imagine, a Mastriano internal. Rather, it was conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and shared with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, whose write-up did not identify a client for the pollster.

A spokesperson for the state GOP, which recently endorsed Garrity’s bid, suggested to the paper that Democrats were hoping to meddle in the race, saying, “Democrats have a history of trying to intervene in GOP primaries in Pennsylvania and around the country, and this poll is no different.”

Mastriano, though, seems unperturbed about the possibility that Democrats are eager to goad him into another run against Gov. Josh Shapiro, who blew him out three years ago. The far-right lawmaker tweeted about the poll several times, including one post in which he sought to compare Shapiro’s approval rating among Republican primary voters with Garrity’s vote share.

“More PA Republicans support Shapiro 27% over Garrity 20%,” he wrote. “We got a problem.”

VA-Gov

Democrat Abigail Spanberger posts a 49-43 lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a new survey by the GOP pollster co/efficient. The firm, which gave Spanberger a similar 48-43 advantage last month, says that neither poll was “sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”

This time, co/efficient did not release numbers for the contests for lieutenant governor or attorney general after previously showing tight races for both offices.

House

CA-11

Wealthy political activist Saikat Chakrabarti has publicized an internal poll arguing that he could pose a serious threat to Nancy Pelosi should the speaker emerita run again.

Beacon Research shows Pelosi leading Chakrabarti, a fellow Democrat, 46-29 in next year’s top-two primary, with Republican David Ganezer taking 11%. Pelosi outpaces Chakrabarti 47-34 in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, a result that Beacon says the challenger can overcome once voters learn more about him.

Pelosi, who is 85, has not yet announced whether she’ll seek another term in California’s dark-blue 11th District in San Francisco. But while most of her would-be successors are waiting for her to leave office before running, Chakrabarti, who managed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset 2018 primary campaign in New York, announced in February that he’d challenge Pelosi.

Chakrabarti self-funded $470,000 through the end of June, and he could likely deploy far more of his own money if he chooses to. Business Insider last month said that Chakrabarti, who was an early employee at the payment processing giant Stripe, is worth at least $167 million.

NH-01

Businessman Chris Bright told his supporters Thursday he was dropping out of the Republican primary for New Hampshire’s 1st District because he’d learned that a new candidate with a “significantly more robust network” would run. Bright, who did not identify this person, said he’d aid them when they enter the race “in the near future.”

TX-21

Trey Trainor, a vice chair of the Federal Election Commission, told the Washington Examiner on Thursday that he’ll resign his post next week and is “seriously evaluating” a bid for Texas’ open 21st District. Trainor would join former Texas Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira in the GOP primary for this conservative district, which Republican Chip Roy is leaving behind to run for state attorney general.

TX-29

Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia could face the toughest renomination battle of her career thanks to a new gerrymander she’s warned could leave populous Harris County without Latino representation in the next Congress.

Garcia, the Houston Chronicle explains in a new article, is seeking reelection in a 29th District that looks considerably different from the version she currently represents. Republicans increased the district’s Black population as part of their plan to reduce the number of Democrats representing the Houston area, a decision that also lowered the number of Latinos in the 29th.

Garcia, whose 2018 election made her one of the first two Latinas to represent Texas in Congress (the other was Veronica Escobar, a fellow Democrat who still represents El Paso), called the plan “a disgrace.” Republicans, unsurprisingly, don’t care.

While Garcia, who announced her reelection campaign last month, currently lacks any serious intraparty opponents in the March primary, that could soon change. Former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, who is Black, filed paperwork with the FEC earlier this month.

Ballot Measures

FL Ballot

The campaign to expand Medicaid in Florida announced Thursday that it would now try to pass its plan in 2028 rather than next year because of a new Republican-crafted law aimed at making it more difficult to place constitutional amendments on the ballot.

House Bill 1205, which is the subject of ongoing litigation, caps how many signatures a person can gather if they’re not registered with the state. Among other things, it also requires that the state’s “election police” investigate ballot initiative campaigns if officials determine that more than 25% of their signatures are invalid.

“HB 1205 wasn’t about transparency, it was sabotage aimed directly at citizen-led ballot initiatives,” Florida Decides Healthcare said in a statement. “This law may have delayed us until 2028, but it will not stop us.”

Legislatures

Special Elections

A Republican who represents a swingy district in New Hampshire’s GOP-controlled House just resigned, but whether there will be a special election to replace him is an open question.

Businessman Matthew Lunney was elected to his first term in Belknap County’s 2nd District just last year, but he’s already given up his seat. The district he briefly served, which includes the town of Meredith in the central part of the state, voted for Donald Trump by a narrow 51-48 margin in 2024 and an even tighter 50-49 spread in 2020, making it ripe for a flip.

However, town leaders in Meredith, which is in Republican hands, could theoretically act to block a special election—just as their counterparts did earlier this year in the town of Salem.

There, a considerably redder House seat came open following a resignation, but the town council voted to keep it vacant for 19 months. According to the Granite Post’s Colin Booth, “Many New Hampshire political insiders on both sides of the aisle say the decision was to avoid an embarrassing special election loss of a Republican seat in a Republican town.”

Following Lunney’s departure, Republicans hold a 217-177 edge in the House, with two seats held by independents and four seats vacant.

Editor’s note: After this piece was published, AdImpact issued a correction to the ad reservation figures it previously reported for the New Jersey governor’s race. Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s reservations increased from $1.5 million to $2.6 million, while Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s decreased from $13.5 million to $13.4 million. This piece has been updated accordingly.