I heard a while ago that Schumer was trying to recruit him to run for Senate. If it forces the GOP to have to spend more money than JBE would, then that itself makes it worth it.
Seeing as the tweet was deleted, we could guess that he probably won't do it.
In the event that JBE did jump in, he might do so as wave+scandal insurance. We wouldn't win with just one of those, but with a big wave and a sufficiently damaged republican candidate and our best candidate possible... maybe? I wouldn't bet on it but it wouldn't be impossible.
That's exactly what I was thinking of with a sufficiently damaged republican. Cassidy did vote to impeach Trump in 2021 for Jan 6, and voted to certify the election results. A crazy reactionary could use that to their advantage to beat him in the jungle primary. With some luck JBE could spend the election season relatively unharmed as Cassidy and Crazy-candidate went all out to destroy each other.
I am so sick and tired of Phil Berger's antics. I've said this last night, he is the NC state version of Mitch McConnell (he would consider THAT a compliment). I hope his plan to win the primary (by making Rep Davis' area redder) blows up in his face.
And I hope that more Ds and left leaning independents come out in full force next year and not only replace the D representatives who let Rs override the governor's vetoes -- but that Rs lose more seats in bluer areas like Alamance and New Hanover. I'm tired of Berger and his minions not funding our state government because they're fighting over their special interest pet projects.
Unless New Jersey Democrats wake up and pass either universal vote by mail (as they once had and saved the D governor in his first election) or combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections they may not only lose this November's election but future ones as well. They also seem to have lost Italian-Americans which they need to reach out to.
Someone on Bluesky pointed out too that NJ hasn't always been uniformly blue. Chris Christie won multiple terms, for one, and there have been plenty of Republicans in government in NJ in the past. So even if we lose this one, it's not like NJ was some uber-blue state that's suddenly a MAGA stronghold. It's always been a bit swingy.
Yes but Chris Christie also won both of his elections as Governor when Obama was POTUS, the very first year of each of his terms (2009 and 2013). Additionally, Jack Ciatterelli’s performance as GOP gubernatorial candidate back in 2021 made Governor Phil Murphy’s election significantly more narrow than his original election back in 2017. This was the first year of Biden’s term as POTUS.
Since 1994 (when Christine Todd Whitman), there has not been a Republican gubernatorial candidate who has won the race when a Republican POTUS has been in office.
As I’ve pointed out, numerous times, no party has won three consecutive gubernatorial races in over 60 years. If a Democrat were president, I think Ciatarelli would be the favorite. But that has nothing to do with the political leaning of the state, where Democrats have control of the state legislature, both senate seats and the House delegation.
Of note: someone I follow on Bluesky (Nick Tagliaferro, the author of Primary School, who lives in NJ) argued that if Sherrill wins this election, she actually may lose the Dem primary in 2029. She is not well liked by progressives, and she doesn't strike me as someone who is particularly politically savvy. I agree that it's a possibility. (Do also note that Fulop and Baraka split the progressive vote in the Governor primary -- it's plausible one could have won if the other hadn't run.)
I really like Primary School and Nick Tagliaferro but I think worrying about a re-election primary in 2029 is such a waste of time and energy and presumptuous as well.
It'd be interesting to see a breakdown as I have no idea if a Democrat like Clinton or Gore was still winning among Italians. Pretty safe bet they've consolidated to the GOP during the Trump years, and especially in 2024. Interestingly though, the most Italian state in the country is Rhode Island and they still vote deeply blue.
Scandinavians remain the most Democratic, ethnic-white groups like Poles, Italians, and Irish are in the middle, while Anglo-Saxons are the most Republican. The biggest 2024 shift toward Trump came from ethnic-whites.
Interesting. I would have thought French would have been a worse group given that Cajuns are overwhelmingly Republican now. Seems the ones in New England and elsewhere are more mixed.
The Dutch might have been the most Republican group as recently as 2014, but at least the Calvinist types tend to be pretty high-minded and don't like Trump. The Grand Rapids-Holland area used to be the reddest area in Michigan, now at least Kent county typically goes Dem.
Whoa! Thanks much for this. Not surprising that Scandinavians are the least Republican group of whites, although I bet Norwegians and Swedes were vastly bluer in the Bush and Obama years. Most of the Obama-Trump counties in the Upper Midwest whose PVIs have stampeded to the right in the last decade are full of Norwegian and Swedish settlements.
Wild that the Dutch are less Republican than the English. I get that the English and Scots-Irish are heavily weighted in the south and Appalachia but at least in the Midwest, Dutch communities rival white Southern Baptists for their margins to the GOP.
It also appears my hunch was correct that Italians aren't THAT Republican now. I would have suspected they'd have been stronger for Trump honestly.
I think the reference is to the massively expanded VBM only option that we employed as a state in 2020. Every voter was mailed a ballot. Was clerking in trial court at the time and had election day challenge duty. Anyone that tried to vote in person on election day had to cast a provisional ballot iirc. Democratic turnout in Jersey has eroded massively since that election.
I've been thinking about Ken Martin's tenure as DNC chair and I'm actually worried he'll be pushed out. Not because of any real attachment to him, mind you, but because I suspect those who want him out (largely donors at this point) will not replace him with someone like Ben Wikler -- they'll replace him with someone like Rahm Emanuel or a similar neoliberal/Clinton-like Dem who will actively try to tip the scales for centrists in Dem primaries, among other possible outcomes.
Woah, enough with the hostility! I was under the impression that the DNC is involved in political campaigns to an extent that makes this on-topic. If it is not, I will knock it off. Please stop with the needless aggressive personal attacks.
The donors who probably want him out forgot or ignore that he mentored Ben Wikler, the one guy that Pelosi and Schumer wanted. Wikler is a fantastic guy in terms of GOTV campaigns and fundraising, but most of the things he did in WI are what he learned from Martin.
If Dems make bigger gains than expected next year, they won't get rid of Ken.
My take is that the importance of DNC/RNC chair is way overhyped. Martin or Wikler or anyone else doesn't have the ability to force members of congress and governors to have a consistent message.
The role isn't impotent but the power and importance are oversold. Their biggest job is fundraising and managerial. With the power of super PACs today, along with the strength of small dollar fundraising for individual candidates, power has shifted away from the central party apparatuses.
Ken Martin is struggling to win over the donors to the Democratic Party but at the same time Democrats are winning lots of races this year, especially in Iowa. More so than even back in 2017, namely special election races?
Former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison mentioned in article #1 you shared that in 2017 Democrats struggled for months to get on it as far as donations. This came when Tom Perez was at the helm of the DNC. Then the NJ and VA elections got won by Democrats and the midterms gave Democrats major mojo in House races as well as gubernatorial wins. And Biden won the 2020 presidential election while Perez was still DNC Chair?
What are these donors really complaining about? More importantly, why don’t they show us any of them can be the DNC Chair if they really want this badly to fight back in Trump?
That makes two Ed Case primary challengers. State Rep. Della Au Belatti is in as a Dem. Not sure of ideology but she seems to be arguing that Case isn't fighting enough.
GOP Rep. Scott Perry has a primary challenger from the center. GOP State House staff attorney Karen Lynn Dalton is challenging Perry, arguing he is too close to Trump.
Good luck with that. Anti-Trump candidates don't fare too well in the modern GOP.
If she runs, makes a bit of a name for herself, and then endorses the Democrat in the general election, then this could help flip the seat. But maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.
Even if she just dings Perry without coming close to winning, that's helpful to us, especially as Perry isn't operating with much room for error, having won by just 2% last time in an environment redder than 2026 is likely to be.
KS-Gov if Republicans fail at their mid decade efforts this time around feel pretty certain they will try again in 27 if they get a compliant governor. Curious what are chances are here with Kelly termed out.
Not surprised that NC GOP bootlicker Dave Boliek appointed Dallas Woodhouse to lead the so-called "election integrity" efforts for NC State Board of Elections, ie do everything to suppress legally cast votes made by Dems or left-leaning independents. (The only reason it's known is because it got leaked.)
While I am probably more in line with Bush politically than Bell, she has more of a volatile presence than even someone like Rashida Tlaib so I'm not sure this will go well for her.
On Bluesky people were pissed at Bush and Bell both because the two appeared at an event with Sen. Josh Hawley. I distinctly remember one comment joking about wanting a primary where they both lose.
With regard to bombthrower types, if the GOP can have Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert, we can afford a Cori Bush.
A STL-based friend noted that Hawley had been instrumental in getting the funds related to that event (funds for those exposed to nuclear waste radiation in Missouri), funds Bush had championed while in the House (and for some reason Bell opposed), which is why Hawley and Bush seemed so friendly at it.
I don't agree with that. We can, yes. Should we, no. Some of her politics injures the party's standing, in my opinion, and is not required to be a socialist. But after seeing that assault by Wesley's bodyguards, I think he's worse.
And Greene and Boebert's don't hurt the GOP? Yet they keep winning anyway.
I'm of the opinion that this political "high ground" mentality is not helping us. We refuse to do things to be better than the GOP, then the GOP does them and eats our lunch. This leads to things like the Dems who are against gerrymandering California. At some point we're going to have to accept that this is all politics in the end, and politics sometimes is dirty. The alternative is not being a democracy anymore.
What about her politics do you dislike specifically?
Wesley Bell's bodyguard assaulted and punched Jewish women For Peace group's protestors who staged a protest at his townhall leading to Bush mulling a comeback according to Ryan Grim's reporting a few weeks back. But I don't know if she is the right person to primary Bell.
We don't even know what caused it. The video conveniently starts with the bodyguard trying to drag her out of the venue. I say it's possible she rushed the stage first.
I'm in the same boat as you. Also it's plain hard to take out an incumbent in a primary without some negative story bearing over them. Has Bell done anything to attract negative attention she needs?
Early voting data from Virginia governors race is not looking encouraging for Democrats based on ballots returned by district. Republican districts dominate highest responses while almost all lowest response districts are Dem
Yeah, the tweet in the post has been deleted. Oh well.
Don’t care the reason. Just good to see it. Try to put as many races on the board as possible.
I heard a while ago that Schumer was trying to recruit him to run for Senate. If it forces the GOP to have to spend more money than JBE would, then that itself makes it worth it.
I’m not sure the GOP will have to spend much. I think they know Edwards won’t get more than 44-45% in a federal race statewide.
I mean...this would be amazing but why on earth would he do this?
Seeing as the tweet was deleted, we could guess that he probably won't do it.
In the event that JBE did jump in, he might do so as wave+scandal insurance. We wouldn't win with just one of those, but with a big wave and a sufficiently damaged republican candidate and our best candidate possible... maybe? I wouldn't bet on it but it wouldn't be impossible.
More likely, it would be in case Cassidy lost the primary to some far-right crazy with baggage. And that's a real possibility.
That's exactly what I was thinking of with a sufficiently damaged republican. Cassidy did vote to impeach Trump in 2021 for Jan 6, and voted to certify the election results. A crazy reactionary could use that to their advantage to beat him in the jungle primary. With some luck JBE could spend the election season relatively unharmed as Cassidy and Crazy-candidate went all out to destroy each other.
Not likely, but not impossible.
I am so sick and tired of Phil Berger's antics. I've said this last night, he is the NC state version of Mitch McConnell (he would consider THAT a compliment). I hope his plan to win the primary (by making Rep Davis' area redder) blows up in his face.
And I hope that more Ds and left leaning independents come out in full force next year and not only replace the D representatives who let Rs override the governor's vetoes -- but that Rs lose more seats in bluer areas like Alamance and New Hanover. I'm tired of Berger and his minions not funding our state government because they're fighting over their special interest pet projects.
NH-St. House: Is there a source for the Lunney resignation? not finding one anywhere
Unless New Jersey Democrats wake up and pass either universal vote by mail (as they once had and saved the D governor in his first election) or combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections they may not only lose this November's election but future ones as well. They also seem to have lost Italian-Americans which they need to reach out to.
To be fair, I don’t think they put much of anything in the 2021 NJ-GOV race and they still almost won that.
Coming from New Jersey, I have no idea what you’re talking about.
Someone on Bluesky pointed out too that NJ hasn't always been uniformly blue. Chris Christie won multiple terms, for one, and there have been plenty of Republicans in government in NJ in the past. So even if we lose this one, it's not like NJ was some uber-blue state that's suddenly a MAGA stronghold. It's always been a bit swingy.
Yes but Chris Christie also won both of his elections as Governor when Obama was POTUS, the very first year of each of his terms (2009 and 2013). Additionally, Jack Ciatterelli’s performance as GOP gubernatorial candidate back in 2021 made Governor Phil Murphy’s election significantly more narrow than his original election back in 2017. This was the first year of Biden’s term as POTUS.
Since 1994 (when Christine Todd Whitman), there has not been a Republican gubernatorial candidate who has won the race when a Republican POTUS has been in office.
Perhaps. I'm aware this is (at least supposed to be) a Dem-friendly environment, and that does bring some concern.
Hopefully Sherrill can pull it off. I've seen as many Ciattarelli ads here in NY as Sherrill ones, and I'm a bit concerned myself. We'll see.
As I’ve pointed out, numerous times, no party has won three consecutive gubernatorial races in over 60 years. If a Democrat were president, I think Ciatarelli would be the favorite. But that has nothing to do with the political leaning of the state, where Democrats have control of the state legislature, both senate seats and the House delegation.
Of note: someone I follow on Bluesky (Nick Tagliaferro, the author of Primary School, who lives in NJ) argued that if Sherrill wins this election, she actually may lose the Dem primary in 2029. She is not well liked by progressives, and she doesn't strike me as someone who is particularly politically savvy. I agree that it's a possibility. (Do also note that Fulop and Baraka split the progressive vote in the Governor primary -- it's plausible one could have won if the other hadn't run.)
their two bases of support could not have been more different. Baraka and Fulop were not attracting the same voters
Admittedly I was looking from an outsider's perspective, so I'll concede to those who live in NJ.
I think worrying about a primary 4 years from now might be a little premature. Let's just hope she gets through this general election.
Hahah ya think?
Indeed
But how will this position us for the 2037 gubernatorial election?
I really like Primary School and Nick Tagliaferro but I think worrying about a re-election primary in 2029 is such a waste of time and energy and presumptuous as well.
I feel like we lost Italian Americans a long time ago. They've been conservative for decades.
It'd be interesting to see a breakdown as I have no idea if a Democrat like Clinton or Gore was still winning among Italians. Pretty safe bet they've consolidated to the GOP during the Trump years, and especially in 2024. Interestingly though, the most Italian state in the country is Rhode Island and they still vote deeply blue.
Scandinavians remain the most Democratic, ethnic-white groups like Poles, Italians, and Irish are in the middle, while Anglo-Saxons are the most Republican. The biggest 2024 shift toward Trump came from ethnic-whites.
https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/1970975279368880212
Here you go
Interesting. I would have thought French would have been a worse group given that Cajuns are overwhelmingly Republican now. Seems the ones in New England and elsewhere are more mixed.
The Dutch might have been the most Republican group as recently as 2014, but at least the Calvinist types tend to be pretty high-minded and don't like Trump. The Grand Rapids-Holland area used to be the reddest area in Michigan, now at least Kent county typically goes Dem.
Whoa! Thanks much for this. Not surprising that Scandinavians are the least Republican group of whites, although I bet Norwegians and Swedes were vastly bluer in the Bush and Obama years. Most of the Obama-Trump counties in the Upper Midwest whose PVIs have stampeded to the right in the last decade are full of Norwegian and Swedish settlements.
Wild that the Dutch are less Republican than the English. I get that the English and Scots-Irish are heavily weighted in the south and Appalachia but at least in the Midwest, Dutch communities rival white Southern Baptists for their margins to the GOP.
It also appears my hunch was correct that Italians aren't THAT Republican now. I would have suspected they'd have been stronger for Trump honestly.
I’m also a little confused about the vote by mail implications…which Gov race was that? 2017?
I think the reference is to the massively expanded VBM only option that we employed as a state in 2020. Every voter was mailed a ballot. Was clerking in trial court at the time and had election day challenge duty. Anyone that tried to vote in person on election day had to cast a provisional ballot iirc. Democratic turnout in Jersey has eroded massively since that election.
I've been thinking about Ken Martin's tenure as DNC chair and I'm actually worried he'll be pushed out. Not because of any real attachment to him, mind you, but because I suspect those who want him out (largely donors at this point) will not replace him with someone like Ben Wikler -- they'll replace him with someone like Rahm Emanuel or a similar neoliberal/Clinton-like Dem who will actively try to tip the scales for centrists in Dem primaries, among other possible outcomes.
Thoughts?
“As do you” — not appreciating the implied personal attack. Please keep the focus on politics.
Woah, enough with the hostility! I was under the impression that the DNC is involved in political campaigns to an extent that makes this on-topic. If it is not, I will knock it off. Please stop with the needless aggressive personal attacks.
But didn't they say that the DNC shouldn't be actively tipping the scales in primaries? /s
The donors who probably want him out forgot or ignore that he mentored Ben Wikler, the one guy that Pelosi and Schumer wanted. Wikler is a fantastic guy in terms of GOTV campaigns and fundraising, but most of the things he did in WI are what he learned from Martin.
If Dems make bigger gains than expected next year, they won't get rid of Ken.
My take is that the importance of DNC/RNC chair is way overhyped. Martin or Wikler or anyone else doesn't have the ability to force members of congress and governors to have a consistent message.
The role isn't impotent but the power and importance are oversold. Their biggest job is fundraising and managerial. With the power of super PACs today, along with the strength of small dollar fundraising for individual candidates, power has shifted away from the central party apparatuses.
Rahm Emanuel won't be chosen since he would trigger fierce reactions, being one of the top enemies of the left over the past two decades.
What is your rationale for this? I've not heard anything about this anywhere.
I've seen a number of articles talking about Ken Martin and his management of the DNC being poor.
https://apnews.com/article/democratic-national-committee-trump-meeting-ken-martin-3e605c6441f69de360e83e6aaf36f393
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/us/politics/dnc-ken-martin.html
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/25/politics/dnc-ken-martin-finances
The Emanuel part is my own personal concern. If not him specifically, my fear is it will be someone like him.
So let me get this straight:
Ken Martin is struggling to win over the donors to the Democratic Party but at the same time Democrats are winning lots of races this year, especially in Iowa. More so than even back in 2017, namely special election races?
Former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison mentioned in article #1 you shared that in 2017 Democrats struggled for months to get on it as far as donations. This came when Tom Perez was at the helm of the DNC. Then the NJ and VA elections got won by Democrats and the midterms gave Democrats major mojo in House races as well as gubernatorial wins. And Biden won the 2020 presidential election while Perez was still DNC Chair?
What are these donors really complaining about? More importantly, why don’t they show us any of them can be the DNC Chair if they really want this badly to fight back in Trump?
So the donors apparently forgot that Ken Martin was elected as DNC Chair and not anointed?
What do they want? Power?
HI-01:
https://www.kitv.com/news/politics/hawaii-rep-della-au-belatti-announces-plans-to-run-for-congress/article_c2247f97-c101-4cd1-9aa5-77e430f46ca6.html
That makes two Ed Case primary challengers. State Rep. Della Au Belatti is in as a Dem. Not sure of ideology but she seems to be arguing that Case isn't fighting enough.
Well, it’s not news that Case isn’t fighting enough.
Agreed.
Didn't mention this when it happened so I might as well shoot now.
PA-10:
https://www.politicspa.com/dalton-enters-pa-10-contest-against-perry/144340/
GOP Rep. Scott Perry has a primary challenger from the center. GOP State House staff attorney Karen Lynn Dalton is challenging Perry, arguing he is too close to Trump.
Good luck with that. Anti-Trump candidates don't fare too well in the modern GOP.
If she runs, makes a bit of a name for herself, and then endorses the Democrat in the general election, then this could help flip the seat. But maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.
Even if she just dings Perry without coming close to winning, that's helpful to us, especially as Perry isn't operating with much room for error, having won by just 2% last time in an environment redder than 2026 is likely to be.
CA-07, CA-22:
https://x.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1968710393456443873
https://x.com/CA_WFP/status/1947340973815538152/photo/1
The California Working Families Party is backing Sacramento City Councillor Mai Vang in her primary challenge to Dem Rep. Doris Matsui.
They're also backing Visalia school board trustee Randy Villegas in his challenge to GOP Rep. David Valadao.
KS-Gov if Republicans fail at their mid decade efforts this time around feel pretty certain they will try again in 27 if they get a compliant governor. Curious what are chances are here with Kelly termed out.
I pretty much agree, hopefully the courts can step in if this is the case in 27.
Not surprised that NC GOP bootlicker Dave Boliek appointed Dallas Woodhouse to lead the so-called "election integrity" efforts for NC State Board of Elections, ie do everything to suppress legally cast votes made by Dems or left-leaning independents. (The only reason it's known is because it got leaked.)
https://www.wral.com/story/former-ncgop-director-to-oversee-election-boards-lead-state-election-integrity-efforts-says-nc-auditor/22175491/
MO-01:
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/government-politics/article_69f027dc-ed6b-4f2d-a6bb-7bdbadfa9f4e.html
Former Rep. Cori Bush is prepping a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell, who had primaried her.
Make of this what you will.
While I am probably more in line with Bush politically than Bell, she has more of a volatile presence than even someone like Rashida Tlaib so I'm not sure this will go well for her.
On Bluesky people were pissed at Bush and Bell both because the two appeared at an event with Sen. Josh Hawley. I distinctly remember one comment joking about wanting a primary where they both lose.
With regard to bombthrower types, if the GOP can have Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert, we can afford a Cori Bush.
A STL-based friend noted that Hawley had been instrumental in getting the funds related to that event (funds for those exposed to nuclear waste radiation in Missouri), funds Bush had championed while in the House (and for some reason Bell opposed), which is why Hawley and Bush seemed so friendly at it.
I don't agree with that. We can, yes. Should we, no. Some of her politics injures the party's standing, in my opinion, and is not required to be a socialist. But after seeing that assault by Wesley's bodyguards, I think he's worse.
And Greene and Boebert's don't hurt the GOP? Yet they keep winning anyway.
I'm of the opinion that this political "high ground" mentality is not helping us. We refuse to do things to be better than the GOP, then the GOP does them and eats our lunch. This leads to things like the Dems who are against gerrymandering California. At some point we're going to have to accept that this is all politics in the end, and politics sometimes is dirty. The alternative is not being a democracy anymore.
What about her politics do you dislike specifically?
Wesley Bell's bodyguard assaulted and punched Jewish women For Peace group's protestors who staged a protest at his townhall leading to Bush mulling a comeback according to Ryan Grim's reporting a few weeks back. But I don't know if she is the right person to primary Bell.
https://www.facebook.com/trtworld/videos/st-louis-police-and-security-forces-violently-assaulted-pro-palestine-protesters/779450791289399/
well damn
Yeah - Bell needs to be primaried - that townhall alone is disqualifying. He’s a hack and not a particularly likable one at that.
Was anyone arrested? They need to press charges. Felonious assault!
We don't even know what caused it. The video conveniently starts with the bodyguard trying to drag her out of the venue. I say it's possible she rushed the stage first.
What happened to cause the confrontation? It's missing crucial context. For all we know, the protestor tried to bum rush the Congressman.
They refused to leave private property.
I'm in the same boat as you. Also it's plain hard to take out an incumbent in a primary without some negative story bearing over them. Has Bell done anything to attract negative attention she needs?
Look at the link PollJunkie posted above, not sure if that would be enough of an ongoing to story to affect the primary though.
Good.
Oh brother!
Early voting data from Virginia governors race is not looking encouraging for Democrats based on ballots returned by district. Republican districts dominate highest responses while almost all lowest response districts are Dem
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-by-house-district-nov-2025/