I doubt it will be a large chunk that does either, but we don't need that.
Since 2000, all but one of our presidential elections has been relatively close. The sole exception is 2008 when Obama won in a modern landslide. Even that pales in comparison to the grand wins of years past.
The marginal house seat in 2024 was PA-07, which we lost …
I doubt it will be a large chunk that does either, but we don't need that.
Since 2000, all but one of our presidential elections has been relatively close. The sole exception is 2008 when Obama won in a modern landslide. Even that pales in comparison to the grand wins of years past.
The marginal house seat in 2024 was PA-07, which we lost by 1.01%. In 2022 in was IA-03, which we lost by 0.69%. In 2020 it was VA-07, which we won by 1.82%.
In the past three senate elections, to cover the entire body, the four closest seats needed to get us to 51 seats:
PA 2024, lost by 0.2%
WI 2022, 1%
NC 2020, 1.7%
NC 2022, 3%
Hopefully I didn't miss anything closer there; I did that one by eyeball.
For presidential elections the tipping point states were:
2000: FL, R+0.009
2004: OH, R+2.1
2008: CO, D+9
2012: CO, D+5.3
2016: WI, R+0.8
2020: WI, D+0.6
2024: PA, R+1.7
It would only require a relatively minimal drop off in republican support in the post-Trump era for things to swing back to our favor. If republicans lose 5% of their voters while we retain all of ours (or e.g. we lose 5% and they lose 10%), that's enough. That level of swing would take away every republican presidential win since HW Bush in 1988. It would have us in control of the house and senate and presidency today if it had occurred in 2020 and held true since then, although the senate would require a tie breaking VP — they would still have won NC's senate election in 2022 narrowly with a 5% loss in their voter base (a rough net loss of 2.5 points).
I doubt it will be a large chunk that does either, but we don't need that.
Since 2000, all but one of our presidential elections has been relatively close. The sole exception is 2008 when Obama won in a modern landslide. Even that pales in comparison to the grand wins of years past.
The marginal house seat in 2024 was PA-07, which we lost by 1.01%. In 2022 in was IA-03, which we lost by 0.69%. In 2020 it was VA-07, which we won by 1.82%.
In the past three senate elections, to cover the entire body, the four closest seats needed to get us to 51 seats:
PA 2024, lost by 0.2%
WI 2022, 1%
NC 2020, 1.7%
NC 2022, 3%
Hopefully I didn't miss anything closer there; I did that one by eyeball.
For presidential elections the tipping point states were:
2000: FL, R+0.009
2004: OH, R+2.1
2008: CO, D+9
2012: CO, D+5.3
2016: WI, R+0.8
2020: WI, D+0.6
2024: PA, R+1.7
It would only require a relatively minimal drop off in republican support in the post-Trump era for things to swing back to our favor. If republicans lose 5% of their voters while we retain all of ours (or e.g. we lose 5% and they lose 10%), that's enough. That level of swing would take away every republican presidential win since HW Bush in 1988. It would have us in control of the house and senate and presidency today if it had occurred in 2020 and held true since then, although the senate would require a tie breaking VP — they would still have won NC's senate election in 2022 narrowly with a 5% loss in their voter base (a rough net loss of 2.5 points).