I expected Trump +7 or +8. Normally one poll doesn't move my priors, but Selzer is renowned for never herding and for nailing the Iowa margin. I think Harris will get at least the 47% this poll shows even if she doesn't win it.
Iowa tends to move along with its neighbors. It's very culturally similar to Wisconsin, it's just redder because Des Moines and Iowa City are smaller relative to the state than Milwaukee and Madison. At this point I would be shocked if Trump wins Wisconsin, and I think he'll lose Michigan and Pennsylvania by more than he did in 2020. I said earlier that the polls are likely either about right or underestimating Harris. Now I'm 80-90% sure they're underestimating her.
Was expecting T +5/6 to be honest.
Same. And that was my absolute max optimism case
I expected Trump +7 or +8. Normally one poll doesn't move my priors, but Selzer is renowned for never herding and for nailing the Iowa margin. I think Harris will get at least the 47% this poll shows even if she doesn't win it.
Iowa tends to move along with its neighbors. It's very culturally similar to Wisconsin, it's just redder because Des Moines and Iowa City are smaller relative to the state than Milwaukee and Madison. At this point I would be shocked if Trump wins Wisconsin, and I think he'll lose Michigan and Pennsylvania by more than he did in 2020. I said earlier that the polls are likely either about right or underestimating Harris. Now I'm 80-90% sure they're underestimating her.