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Skaje's avatar

(Almost) final thoughts for the election:

1) Everything I'm seeing points towards very high turnout, comparable to 2020, on both sides. A lot of 2020 e-day GOP voters have shifted to voting early, and a lot of 2020 early Dem voters are shifting back to e-day (we saw this in 2022).

2) I think people are wasting their time looking for signs of a Dem turnout collapse. Just as they did when they over-interpreted 2020's early vote to believe that e-day GOP turnout couldn't possibly match the massive early Dem turnout. The thing about pres years is...most everyone turns out! You don't get huge disparities like can happen in midterms and especially odd-years, specials, or other one-off elections. Hate to say it but, pres years come down to persuasion. Something early vote analysis can't tell us.

3) I'm expecting the late counted vote to be a lot bluer than 2020. This will be more noticeable in heavily VBM states like AZ, CO, CA. In recent years a lot of the late ballots in those states actually leaned more GOP, but I'd expect a reversion to the pre-2020 trend of Democrats picking up votes with the last ballots.

4) Polling has given up and predicted ties in all seven swing states and even nationally. Remington Wilton came out with a set of polls showing Harris and Trump at 47% or 48% in all seven swing states, something I refuse to believe could happen with any justifiable methodology. If you think NC has moved one point left, while PA moves one point right, NV and MI moved a couple points right, and WI, AZ, and GA have stayed even from 2020, I think you're being sold a lie by a nervous polling industry fearful of "getting it wrong" a third time. In 2020, the poll averages were correct in GA while simultaneously being 8 points wrong in WI. Expect errors of that nature this year, with some states more or less nailed, while others are well off their poll averages. I refuse to believe the averages nail all 7 swing states, or even miss in all 7 in the same direction and by the same amount in each. Won't happen!

5) Gonna ask everyone to be very kind to each other in these nerve-wracking final days. We don't know what's going to happen. No one does with confidence. If it's getting to you, please just come back in a few days when we can argue about what *did* happen, not what we *think* will happen.

6) What I do know is FL is gonna count fast, it's probably gonna suck, and everyone's gonna fixate on it for a couple hours on Tuesday while we wait for other states to trickle in. Do something else during that time! Dooming over FL's election night dump didn't serve any of us well in 2020, or 2022, and it probably won't be helpful this year either.

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hilltopper's avatar

Georgia election officials say their count will be very fast due to new election laws. Soon after 8:00, "early and absentee votes for president — roughly three-quarters of all votes— will be posted online. . . . Then ballots cast on Election Day will be counted nonstop until each county is done." Expect most counting to be done by 9:30. All that will be left at the end of the evening will be provisional and overseas votes. https://www.ajc.com/politics/voters-will-see-fast-results-in-georgias-presidential-election/56ILJI6ERZAPFIB65AGVOHA4EQ/

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safik's avatar

I wonder if we'll see what we've seen in 2022 where the late vote is overwhelmingly democrat. From what I remember in 22 Warnock didn't take the lead until something like 95% of the vote was in and while that as a very close race, not so close that you'd expect the loser to still be leading with 95% of the vote in.

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Tom A's avatar

Up until covid that qas basically the norm. Dem groups vote later and cities take longer to count.

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axlee's avatar

In 2022, the late counted votes, not the late cast votes on EDay, are bluer.

The early posted in person votes, which were literally already counted, were posted right away. 50-50 on statewide races, slightly bluer on Warnock.

The EDay votes were then progressively reported, and very red.

The VBM, especially those received in later days, and processed right around or shortly after poll closing, were the bluest part.

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ArcticStones's avatar

"The thing about pres years is...most everyone turns out!"

Not so. In 2020, turnout was an absolutely-abysmal 67% of registered voters. A few states had a respectable turnout; if I recall correctly, Minnesota had 80%.

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Tigercourse's avatar

2020 had massive turnout.

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ArcticStones's avatar

By any reasonable measure, an election where one-third of the registered electorate fails to vote cannot be described as "massive" – and certainly turnout cannot be described as "most everyone". A stunning portion of Americans don’t vote.

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Kuka's avatar

Turnout is higher in swing states and much lower in safe red states

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Oggoldy's avatar

67% is as high as any presidential election since the Civil Rights Act.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I think what Skaje meant is that most everyone that is interested in voting will vote in presidential years.

Two thirds of the country voting is incredible and unheard of since our last expansion of enfranchisement. Yeah, a third of people not voting is a lot, but that group has never been smaller in my lifetime.

We’re at the point now where non-voters are increasingly likely to stay non-voters.

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benamery21's avatar

I disagree that the 1/3rd of the public which didn’t vote in 2020 is unreachable. I think we’ve got a 20th century marketing model of campaigning to consumers, which needs to change to engage and ensure citizen-partner-member participation.

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benamery21's avatar

2020 had the highest turnout as a percentage of eligible voters of any U.S. presidential election in 120 years, despite only being about 2/3rds of those eligible.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Yes, I know. My apologies – I suppose you could say I’m handicapped. As a Scandinavian I just expect far more engagement from citizens who are eligible to vote.

The American status quo, even including 2020’s "record turnout", remains unfathomable to me. (And I think you’re absolutely right in your comment above: that non-voting 1/3rd is not unreachable.)

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