Less confident. I have six states I'm not sure about going into this. The last few times, I don't think I had more than two question marks although I was wrong about some of them (e.g. the blue wall states in 2016). I'm confident that Harris will win Michigan. I'm about 80% sure she wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I think she's slightly…
Less confident. I have six states I'm not sure about going into this. The last few times, I don't think I had more than two question marks although I was wrong about some of them (e.g. the blue wall states in 2016). I'm confident that Harris will win Michigan. I'm about 80% sure she wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I think she's slightly favored in Georgia and Nevada, but they're still basically tossups. I have no idea about Arizona and North Carolina.
I'm fairly confident that the polls are either basically right or underestimating Harris, but that leaves a lot of room for uncertainty. Why I think Harris might do better than the polls suggest:
(1) Spending patterns and pundit ratings on congressional races suggest an environment close to 2020, while polling suggests something in between 2020 and 2022.
(2) By all accounts, Harris has a much better ground game than Trump does. Even if polling accurately reflects intentions, ground game can turn intentions into votes.
(3) There is some evidence that late undecideds (not just Puerto Ricans) are mostly breaking for Harris, and that she's won a higher share of early voters than registration splits would suggest.
Nevada is likely going to be another repeat of 2022 where the election will be really close. Hard to say right now officially who will win NV but instinctively, I have a gut feeling neither Harris nor Trump is going to win by a sizable margin.
Less confident. I have six states I'm not sure about going into this. The last few times, I don't think I had more than two question marks although I was wrong about some of them (e.g. the blue wall states in 2016). I'm confident that Harris will win Michigan. I'm about 80% sure she wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I think she's slightly favored in Georgia and Nevada, but they're still basically tossups. I have no idea about Arizona and North Carolina.
I'm fairly confident that the polls are either basically right or underestimating Harris, but that leaves a lot of room for uncertainty. Why I think Harris might do better than the polls suggest:
(1) Spending patterns and pundit ratings on congressional races suggest an environment close to 2020, while polling suggests something in between 2020 and 2022.
(2) By all accounts, Harris has a much better ground game than Trump does. Even if polling accurately reflects intentions, ground game can turn intentions into votes.
(3) There is some evidence that late undecideds (not just Puerto Ricans) are mostly breaking for Harris, and that she's won a higher share of early voters than registration splits would suggest.
Nevada is likely going to be another repeat of 2022 where the election will be really close. Hard to say right now officially who will win NV but instinctively, I have a gut feeling neither Harris nor Trump is going to win by a sizable margin.