A singular poll should not supersede the makeup of the state and its history. So if I saw a PA poll showing a +7 result I wouldn't believe it either. The asymmetry of it, where Cohn says they specifically wouldn't believe it if it was Harris +7 and nothing of Trump +7 is more interesting.
From a Harris campaign perspective if you ignore a…
A singular poll should not supersede the makeup of the state and its history. So if I saw a PA poll showing a +7 result I wouldn't believe it either. The asymmetry of it, where Cohn says they specifically wouldn't believe it if it was Harris +7 and nothing of Trump +7 is more interesting.
From a Harris campaign perspective if you ignore a +7 poll and continue to treat it as a 2 point race is almost all upside. The only downside to it would be if whatever advantage you have in that state is largely singular. If Kamala wins PA by 7 I don't think there's any way she loses MI or WI. But maybe that really doesn't extend to the Sun Belt and she ends up losing NV by a point and Jackie Rosen loses by 0.5. Then I think you'd see some people saying they should've trusted their numbers and reallocated resources. But that's very unlikely and would also mean the worst has been averted.
From a media perspective it is interesting but I think unsurprising. The polling being too Republican and then ending up being wrong is just going to result in some people laughing at you on social media. The polling being too Democratic might result in you being hauled in front of congress.
A singular poll should not supersede the makeup of the state and its history. So if I saw a PA poll showing a +7 result I wouldn't believe it either. The asymmetry of it, where Cohn says they specifically wouldn't believe it if it was Harris +7 and nothing of Trump +7 is more interesting.
From a Harris campaign perspective if you ignore a +7 poll and continue to treat it as a 2 point race is almost all upside. The only downside to it would be if whatever advantage you have in that state is largely singular. If Kamala wins PA by 7 I don't think there's any way she loses MI or WI. But maybe that really doesn't extend to the Sun Belt and she ends up losing NV by a point and Jackie Rosen loses by 0.5. Then I think you'd see some people saying they should've trusted their numbers and reallocated resources. But that's very unlikely and would also mean the worst has been averted.
From a media perspective it is interesting but I think unsurprising. The polling being too Republican and then ending up being wrong is just going to result in some people laughing at you on social media. The polling being too Democratic might result in you being hauled in front of congress.
If Trump were to win, it could result in much worse than that.