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Henrik's avatar

I don’t make predictions as a general rule.

It’s hard to assess, and I’ve said consistently this year that it feels like we’re flying a bit blind. It seems - from stuff like Nate Cohn’s article on poll adjustments, and Marquette running a R+5 sample in Wisconsin this week - that pollsters are trying to adjust for 2016/20, but who really knows. Other indicators seem a bit more bullish in our direction, but they’re rarely totally dispositive.

I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic, but bracing myself for disappointment

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