I'm about 51% confident about my predictions. More states than usual are well within the margin of error, meaning that already unreliable polls are that much more indeterminant. Meanwhile, plenty of tea leaves point to an electorate once again realigning itself just as it did in 2016.
Will the managerial class shift to Harris outnumber th…
I'm about 51% confident about my predictions. More states than usual are well within the margin of error, meaning that already unreliable polls are that much more indeterminant. Meanwhile, plenty of tea leaves point to an electorate once again realigning itself just as it did in 2016.
Will the managerial class shift to Harris outnumber the nonwhite shift to Trump or vice versa?
Will the male shift to Trump outnumber the female shift to Harris or vice versa?
Should we really expect more than 155 million people to vote as they did four years ago?
And has the broken state of modern polling somehow managed to capture in any way the correct modeling needed to qualify these shifts?
My lesson from 2016 (and to a lesser degree in 2020) is that our community got lucky in 2012. We mocked the Romney supporters who "unskewed the polls" before the election and we mocked them after the election when the polls vindicated us. But it could have just as easily have been us with the egg on our face if the polling error had ticked their way that year as it did the next two cycles.
My pre-emptive lesson this year is to take warning signs seriously. And right now, the situation in Nevada is a warning sign.....and the reason I'm still 51% confident of my predictions from seven days ago rather than 49%.
I'm about 51% confident about my predictions. More states than usual are well within the margin of error, meaning that already unreliable polls are that much more indeterminant. Meanwhile, plenty of tea leaves point to an electorate once again realigning itself just as it did in 2016.
Will the managerial class shift to Harris outnumber the nonwhite shift to Trump or vice versa?
Will the male shift to Trump outnumber the female shift to Harris or vice versa?
Should we really expect more than 155 million people to vote as they did four years ago?
And has the broken state of modern polling somehow managed to capture in any way the correct modeling needed to qualify these shifts?
My lesson from 2016 (and to a lesser degree in 2020) is that our community got lucky in 2012. We mocked the Romney supporters who "unskewed the polls" before the election and we mocked them after the election when the polls vindicated us. But it could have just as easily have been us with the egg on our face if the polling error had ticked their way that year as it did the next two cycles.
My pre-emptive lesson this year is to take warning signs seriously. And right now, the situation in Nevada is a warning sign.....and the reason I'm still 51% confident of my predictions from seven days ago rather than 49%.