1) Everything I'm seeing points towards very high turnout, comparable to 2020, on both sides. A lot of 2020 e-day GOP voters have shifted to voting early, and a lot of 2020 early Dem voters are shifting back to e-day (we saw this in 2022).
2) I think people are wasting their time looking for signs of a Dem turnout collapse. Just as they did when they over-interpreted 2020's early vote to believe that e-day GOP turnout couldn't possibly match the massive early Dem turnout. The thing about pres years is...most everyone turns out! You don't get huge disparities like can happen in midterms and especially odd-years, specials, or other one-off elections. Hate to say it but, pres years come down to persuasion. Something early vote analysis can't tell us.
3) I'm expecting the late counted vote to be a lot bluer than 2020. This will be more noticeable in heavily VBM states like AZ, CO, CA. In recent years a lot of the late ballots in those states actually leaned more GOP, but I'd expect a reversion to the pre-2020 trend of Democrats picking up votes with the last ballots.
4) Polling has given up and predicted ties in all seven swing states and even nationally. Remington Wilton came out with a set of polls showing Harris and Trump at 47% or 48% in all seven swing states, something I refuse to believe could happen with any justifiable methodology. If you think NC has moved one point left, while PA moves one point right, NV and MI moved a couple points right, and WI, AZ, and GA have stayed even from 2020, I think you're being sold a lie by a nervous polling industry fearful of "getting it wrong" a third time. In 2020, the poll averages were correct in GA while simultaneously being 8 points wrong in WI. Expect errors of that nature this year, with some states more or less nailed, while others are well off their poll averages. I refuse to believe the averages nail all 7 swing states, or even miss in all 7 in the same direction and by the same amount in each. Won't happen!
5) Gonna ask everyone to be very kind to each other in these nerve-wracking final days. We don't know what's going to happen. No one does with confidence. If it's getting to you, please just come back in a few days when we can argue about what *did* happen, not what we *think* will happen.
6) What I do know is FL is gonna count fast, it's probably gonna suck, and everyone's gonna fixate on it for a couple hours on Tuesday while we wait for other states to trickle in. Do something else during that time! Dooming over FL's election night dump didn't serve any of us well in 2020, or 2022, and it probably won't be helpful this year either.
(Almost) final thoughts for the election:
1) Everything I'm seeing points towards very high turnout, comparable to 2020, on both sides. A lot of 2020 e-day GOP voters have shifted to voting early, and a lot of 2020 early Dem voters are shifting back to e-day (we saw this in 2022).
2) I think people are wasting their time looking for signs of a Dem turnout collapse. Just as they did when they over-interpreted 2020's early vote to believe that e-day GOP turnout couldn't possibly match the massive early Dem turnout. The thing about pres years is...most everyone turns out! You don't get huge disparities like can happen in midterms and especially odd-years, specials, or other one-off elections. Hate to say it but, pres years come down to persuasion. Something early vote analysis can't tell us.
3) I'm expecting the late counted vote to be a lot bluer than 2020. This will be more noticeable in heavily VBM states like AZ, CO, CA. In recent years a lot of the late ballots in those states actually leaned more GOP, but I'd expect a reversion to the pre-2020 trend of Democrats picking up votes with the last ballots.
4) Polling has given up and predicted ties in all seven swing states and even nationally. Remington Wilton came out with a set of polls showing Harris and Trump at 47% or 48% in all seven swing states, something I refuse to believe could happen with any justifiable methodology. If you think NC has moved one point left, while PA moves one point right, NV and MI moved a couple points right, and WI, AZ, and GA have stayed even from 2020, I think you're being sold a lie by a nervous polling industry fearful of "getting it wrong" a third time. In 2020, the poll averages were correct in GA while simultaneously being 8 points wrong in WI. Expect errors of that nature this year, with some states more or less nailed, while others are well off their poll averages. I refuse to believe the averages nail all 7 swing states, or even miss in all 7 in the same direction and by the same amount in each. Won't happen!
5) Gonna ask everyone to be very kind to each other in these nerve-wracking final days. We don't know what's going to happen. No one does with confidence. If it's getting to you, please just come back in a few days when we can argue about what *did* happen, not what we *think* will happen.
6) What I do know is FL is gonna count fast, it's probably gonna suck, and everyone's gonna fixate on it for a couple hours on Tuesday while we wait for other states to trickle in. Do something else during that time! Dooming over FL's election night dump didn't serve any of us well in 2020, or 2022, and it probably won't be helpful this year either.
Folks, let's continue the party over at this new open thread: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/weekly-open-thread-saturday-night