For me it was the special elections just following Trump’s first election. I appreciated the data-driven analysis about the outcomes, noting areas of overperformance as signs of change.
I had stumbled across SSP earlier but didn't become a frequent follower until early 2008. That was the first major election I voted in and about the time of my own political coming of age as a lefty in a very conservative area.
I first discovered the Downballot when it was DKE, believe it or not via a Wikipedia citation. I lurked for some time, then when it moved to Substack I eventually took the plunge and started posting.
You guys are fantastic. I consider The Downballot a valuable source for election analysis, along with Primary School and Bolts Magazine, and the three collectively got me into really local and down-ticket elections as a whole. Kudos to you guys!
What elections, if any, do you remember where someone running didn’t take their race seriously and just assumed they’d win, only to learn the hard way that that’s a bad strategy?
The 2014 Senate election with Senator Mark Warner running for re-election.
Warner really didn’t actively campaign for re-election as he could have. GOP Senate Candidate Ed Gillespie ran a credible campaign that to date is Warner’s toughest race, one where Gillespie almost won. Warner only won re-election by .81% points.
This was a serious error in judgment on Warner and his re-election camp, especially considering he was a popular Governor in VA prior to being elected to the Senate. He was also dealing with the 2014 midterm campaign season, which like 2010 gave the GOP traction once again.
Warner got a much wider re-election victory in 2020.
2010 Massachusetts is the poster child for this phenomenon.
Do you know just how bad at campaigning, or even just at being a candidate you have to be to lose Ted fucking Kennedy's senate seat in Massachusetts as a Democrat? It's an entirely different level.
I was a regular on Daily Kos Elections when back in 2024 David Nir made the announcement then about moving to Substack. The Downballot was the new name at the time.
Quite honestly, I like it better on this platform.
In February 2025, when I was trying to research a detailed description of Mitch McConnell's retirement announcement and his career. I made my first comment in August/September of that year.
Many of the MLAs who left the BC Conservative Party are now joining CentreBC, as the previous leader of that party resigned to allow Peter Milobar, a serving MLA who was setting up his own party, to take over. This party was already running a candidate in next week's by-election against the BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay, so it has now become a straight up fight for control of the centre-right electorate. The NDP might be the ultimate benefactor due to a split vote.
In answer to the question of how I ended up here, I also went to Daily Kos Elections back in ye olden times, but came to this site via G. Elliott Morris and Strength in Numbers, as he referred to this site a lot, especially in relation to the special election margins showing a resurgent Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Findlay decided to kick out three MLAs, including the former leader of the party that brought it into parliament, John Rustad, for calling for her resignation. There are already rumors of a potential snap election, and a split in the conservative vote is too good to pass up.
I first became aware of what is now known as The Downballot when I was a Daily Kos member (this was before I got kicked off of that site, and to be honest, getting kicked off of Daily Kos is the best thing that ever happened to me, as I became aware of my own serious mental health issues not long after that), and The Downballot was known as Daily Kos Elections and part of Daily Kos.
I became a regular at DKE in 2013 and followed y'all to TDB when you moved. I'd encountered DKE and SSP sporadically before that but never got to lurker stage. I was a regular on various politics, news, economics, and energy sites going back to 1994.
This isn't really directly elections-related (although a lot of the entities described are electoral entities in some form or fashion), but the man who runs the GeoBrad channel on YouTube did an entire video on the *many* types of what are loosely termed as third-level subdivisions of the United States (below counties and county equivalents).
The only notable omission made in the video is that Tennessee has its three Grand Divisions (East Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, and West Tennessee) as a subdivision above the county level. The video explained New York City's unique situation as a city spanning five counties, and, although this wasn't explained in the video, Connecticut has two different types of second-level subdivisions (ceremonial counties and planning regions).
I actually live in two different "third-level" subdivisions simultaneously: the portion of the Village of Westville that is in Georgetown Township in Vermilion County, Illinois. Technically speaking, the village is subordinate to the township, which illustrates how the Census Bureau's definitions of third-level subdivisions sometimes end up grouping subdivisions that are hierarchally above or below each other as one level of subdivision.
I became a DKE regular in 2011, when Daily Kos acquired Swing State Project. I am grateful for the non-Presidency focus, since they are too often overlooked.
For me it was the special elections just following Trump’s first election. I appreciated the data-driven analysis about the outcomes, noting areas of overperformance as signs of change.
I had stumbled across SSP earlier but didn't become a frequent follower until early 2008. That was the first major election I voted in and about the time of my own political coming of age as a lefty in a very conservative area.
I first discovered the Downballot when it was DKE, believe it or not via a Wikipedia citation. I lurked for some time, then when it moved to Substack I eventually took the plunge and started posting.
You guys are fantastic. I consider The Downballot a valuable source for election analysis, along with Primary School and Bolts Magazine, and the three collectively got me into really local and down-ticket elections as a whole. Kudos to you guys!
I have my own question for posters here.
What elections, if any, do you remember where someone running didn’t take their race seriously and just assumed they’d win, only to learn the hard way that that’s a bad strategy?
Could be any party, ideology, or person.
The 2014 Senate election with Senator Mark Warner running for re-election.
Warner really didn’t actively campaign for re-election as he could have. GOP Senate Candidate Ed Gillespie ran a credible campaign that to date is Warner’s toughest race, one where Gillespie almost won. Warner only won re-election by .81% points.
This was a serious error in judgment on Warner and his re-election camp, especially considering he was a popular Governor in VA prior to being elected to the Senate. He was also dealing with the 2014 midterm campaign season, which like 2010 gave the GOP traction once again.
Warner got a much wider re-election victory in 2020.
2010 Massachusetts is the poster child for this phenomenon.
Do you know just how bad at campaigning, or even just at being a candidate you have to be to lose Ted fucking Kennedy's senate seat in Massachusetts as a Democrat? It's an entirely different level.
I was a regular on Daily Kos Elections when back in 2024 David Nir made the announcement then about moving to Substack. The Downballot was the new name at the time.
Quite honestly, I like it better on this platform.
In February 2025, when I was trying to research a detailed description of Mitch McConnell's retirement announcement and his career. I made my first comment in August/September of that year.
BREAKING NEWS FROM THE NORTH: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/livestory/british-columbia-politics-independents-bc-centre-conservatives-9.7350118
Many of the MLAs who left the BC Conservative Party are now joining CentreBC, as the previous leader of that party resigned to allow Peter Milobar, a serving MLA who was setting up his own party, to take over. This party was already running a candidate in next week's by-election against the BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay, so it has now become a straight up fight for control of the centre-right electorate. The NDP might be the ultimate benefactor due to a split vote.
In answer to the question of how I ended up here, I also went to Daily Kos Elections back in ye olden times, but came to this site via G. Elliott Morris and Strength in Numbers, as he referred to this site a lot, especially in relation to the special election margins showing a resurgent Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Findlay decided to kick out three MLAs, including the former leader of the party that brought it into parliament, John Rustad, for calling for her resignation. There are already rumors of a potential snap election, and a split in the conservative vote is too good to pass up.
I first became aware of what is now known as The Downballot when I was a Daily Kos member (this was before I got kicked off of that site, and to be honest, getting kicked off of Daily Kos is the best thing that ever happened to me, as I became aware of my own serious mental health issues not long after that), and The Downballot was known as Daily Kos Elections and part of Daily Kos.
I became a regular at DKE in 2013 and followed y'all to TDB when you moved. I'd encountered DKE and SSP sporadically before that but never got to lurker stage. I was a regular on various politics, news, economics, and energy sites going back to 1994.
This isn't really directly elections-related (although a lot of the entities described are electoral entities in some form or fashion), but the man who runs the GeoBrad channel on YouTube did an entire video on the *many* types of what are loosely termed as third-level subdivisions of the United States (below counties and county equivalents).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5JbDuf--ng
The only notable omission made in the video is that Tennessee has its three Grand Divisions (East Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, and West Tennessee) as a subdivision above the county level. The video explained New York City's unique situation as a city spanning five counties, and, although this wasn't explained in the video, Connecticut has two different types of second-level subdivisions (ceremonial counties and planning regions).
I actually live in two different "third-level" subdivisions simultaneously: the portion of the Village of Westville that is in Georgetown Township in Vermilion County, Illinois. Technically speaking, the village is subordinate to the township, which illustrates how the Census Bureau's definitions of third-level subdivisions sometimes end up grouping subdivisions that are hierarchally above or below each other as one level of subdivision.
I became a DKE regular in 2011, when Daily Kos acquired Swing State Project. I am grateful for the non-Presidency focus, since they are too often overlooked.
I found SwingStateProject in the run up to 2008, while looking for downballot coverage. The Downballot remains the single best site for such news.